Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was Skilling's RPM model, obviously there are timing issues this far out between the models. 00z GFS thru 06z Sunday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Narrow stripe of snow in SE Iowa that is very heavy. Maybe that can come north. Round 3 forming out in NE at hour 123, but the 18Z GFS had this falling apart as it got here. Maybe that will change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z GFS thru 00z Monday...some lollipop totals showing up in S IA/W IL...lots of real estate still being covered in significant snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 lol that last GFS image sums it all up enjoy N il. I'll turn back on my snow magnet next winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 lol that last GFS image sums it all up enjoy N il. I'll turn back on my snow magnet next winterAgreed, I've seen that particular image all too often. That dry slot out west will move over me, and those 14-16" totals will scoot due east to include the entire Chicago area. Just got that bad feeling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not a bad run. Man I just want to get in on some of those bigger totals, they smaller storms are making me hungry for something better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Very surprised to see how consistent the GFS has been on track as of late and continuing to show 12"+ totals for a large portion of the Plains/Midwest/GL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Very surprised to see how consistent the GFS has been on track as of late and continuing to show 12"+ totals for a large portion of the Plains/Midwest/GL.150 hr, Chicago gets railed. totals around 14-16", but in honesty with the good ratios, I'd say up to 20". Slow claps for Chicago again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 150 hr, Chicago gets railed. totals around 14-16", but in honesty with the good ratios, I'd say up to 20". Slow claps for Chicago again. Story of the winter..what else is new? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Nebraska, I wouldn't pay attention to snowfall totals this far out. Your area is near the highest snowfall totals so I wouldn't discount the chances of receiving a significant snowfall out of this. Use the maps as guidance instead. You won't know accurate predicted totals until you start seeing high rez models right before the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Story of the winter..what else is new? It's only Tuesday night. Nothing is etched in stone yet! The most important event looks to be on the weekend and not on Friday. --- Lake enhancement doesn't look like a factor with an inversion below 850mb. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's only Tuesday night. Nothing is etched in stone yet! The most important event looks to be on the weekend and not on Friday. --- Lake enhancement doesn't look like a factor with an inversion below 850mb. I know man, but you can't blame us folks over in Nebraska for being pessimistic. That is just the kind of winter we have had out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 I know man, but you can't blame us folks over in Nebraska for being pessimistic. That is just the kind of winter we have had out here. I think you're in a better position in the next week than you have been all winter so far. Southern stream is going to start playing a role. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z GGEM...farther north with the heavier snow band from its 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Don't forget when looking at those maps they are based on 10:1 ratios. The ratios for this system will be much higher than 10:1 and GFS has been throwing out 20:1 ratios from time to time. So "only" .4 qpf would be 7-8 inches based off good ratios. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 If 00z GGEM corrected north this run, I'd guess 00z Euro will follow suit. The early ideas of suppression are becoming a thing of the past when some were jumping the gun. Never doubt the LRC, it can be a powerful tool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Tom could you post the euro when it comes out? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z Euro weak and the farthest south of all the models...holding strong for heaviest snows thru OV into the east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS/GGEM vs Euro...the battle continues...will this be another debacle on the Euro??? I'd be very impressed if the GFS wins this battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm guessing most of the .3 qpf or so in WI is from the 1st wave, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS/GGEM vs Euro...the battle continues...will this be another debacle on the Euro??? I'd be very impressed if the GFS wins this battle.We're always talking about how the Euro tends to handle the non-clipper systems well... Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z Euro brings 1-3" in IA/WI Friday night...then another wave Saturday night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah, not feeling that great about the euro being suppressed. It usually does handle these type of systems the best. We'll see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro did handle last week Thursday's dynamic system extremely well there. This is more of an elongated wave rather than an intense storm. Until I see more consistency in a southward trend I'll believe it when I see it. My thoughts are were they have always been and a GFS solution fits the pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty abysmal. The first couple waves are weak and hit or miss with any decent snow bands, then the wave with better strength and moisture is suppressed. I suppose it would be fitting to end winter with another nickel/dimer. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 6z gfs sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 6z gfs sucksIt's really not that bad. Unless you're looking for 12 plus amounts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Flat zonal flow don't see anything special happening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF back on the rise. 03z: OSH: 5.29 09z: OSH: 6.85 03z: MKE: 4.05 09z: MKE: 4.16 03z: ORD: 3.14 09z: ORD: 3.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 LOL some of the sref members are ridiculous. One has Rochester at 20 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 The curse of the new snowblower... Sorry guys! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 LOL some of the sref members are ridiculous. One has Rochester at 20 inches Looking at it now, and the most I see is 8.8? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 ya it hadn't updated yet... picking up on wave 2 though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z nam has 6+ here or so with wave #2 incoming from IA/MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 12Z Runs should start to get sampled because the rain from this system appears to be spreading in to California right now. But sampling should occur soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z NAM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z NAM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-72864500-1393428342.jpgLooks like a couple inches to add to the snow totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 what a horrible nam run for me. wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 12Z Runs should start to get sampled because the rain from this system appears to be spreading in to California right now. But sampling should occur soon.From what I heard yesterday, partial sampling should occur on the 0z Saturday runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS weaker/south with the main band again. High is too strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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