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2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

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in East of the Rockies

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
Posted

FWIW, the latest 12z CFSv2 snowfall map showing 2 of its 4 members indicating a snowstorm from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI.  This map accounts for current snow cover and the projected snow for the snowstorm this weekend.  You can see the heaviest corridor of 12"+ in the greyish/brown color.

That model may have done alright with the cold this winter, but it's been on crack for snowfall amounts. I can't even count how many times this winter where it's showed us buried in snow and well..... we all know how that has gone! We might as well be using the JMA for snow amounts too.

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Tom
Tom

Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me???

Jaycee
Jaycee

Every Nebraskan including myself   http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/mad-at-theinternet.gif

Jaycee
Jaycee

it's a bust lol. already most of the NWS offices out here are lowing their amounts significantly. Just can't win out on a big storm this year it seems.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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^ Your right about that in your region, but from IA eastward into the east coast it has done very well.  For some reason, this year snow does not like to fall in your area.  I really am rooting for you to get in on the action from this storm. 

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ChicagoToSeattle Newbie

ChicagoToSeattle

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I would totally agree with that, especially the American models, but all of them in general have overdone precip a lot this year.

Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels.

 

There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff.

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels.

 

There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff.

Read that as well, certainly interesting..

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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So far LOT says < 1" tomorrow night. Snow likely after midnight.

 

Both ENW and RAC have 2", maybe 3" forecasted currently.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Neat look at the WRF simulated radar off the coast of Cali...almost looks like an eye of a Hurricane.  I think once this system comes onshore and the models are able to get real good data, this will turn out to be a much bigger storm one which can shift north eventually.  We have had crazy shifts even 24 hours out and this system may do the same.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Took this map off tonight's 00z Euro weeklies control run...I find it interesting that at 6:00pm Sunday the thermal boundary is much farther north and that is where the wave will run up and along it.  If this were to evolve, a track through S IL/S IN would transpire.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Lake Enhancement will be a wild card but you can clearly see that showing up on the NAM/GFS and as we get closer to the event, high rez models tend to pick it up even more.  The only problem I see with that is that the lake may freeze up some more by Sat/Sun.

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