2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[Geos]

4-9" in my grid. I'd probably side with 4-6" though.

[midwest buildit]

i was afraid to even come on here and look today!!!

hmmmm

 

wgn 3-6"

p&c 3-7"

advisory 4-6"

[abhidupage]

4-9" in my grid. I'd probably side with 4-6" though.

agreed gonna be another quick mover if hrrr/rap are right when it snows it'll come down good make the hawks interesting but I would be highly surprised if anyone tops 6" atleast north of 80. some places could south of 80 with tomorrow included

[Tony]

Modeling on this storm has been terrible so I do not trust the 12z runs. 18z will probably be more robust again but it really all comes down to watching the radar.

 

Snow flurries has started here in Dupage Co.

[midwest buildit]

this looks diff than any other models. wow. just some light snow.

 

9h rap

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/rap_amer_16/P1_GZ_D5_PN_009_0000.gif

[abhidupage]

this looks diff than any other models. wow. just some light snow.

 

9h rap

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/rap_amer_16/P1_GZ_D5_PN_009_0000.gif

rap has been off this winter. hrrr model is the way to go, it has mdt snow for a few hour period the placement on it is all over the place but it def is snowier than the rap model is. LOT posted a graphic around 10 am saying 1/2 to inch an hr rates are still possible. Rap has snow out around 8pm while Hrr has it till 11pm-midnight. Pretty sig diff between the 2.

[abhidupage]

FWIW the nam 12 4km is a bit better. lighter green is .10 to .15" of qpf and the darker shade is .15 to .25" of qpf in 3 hr period.

[midwest buildit]

are noaa's sref's down? the page is blank

[Tom]

SREF's for ORD are still around .42qpf....

[Geos]

I have a mean of 5.2" on the SREF plumes.

[Tony]

Accuweather also increased amounts here from 3-6 to 4-8. I usually do not pay attention to Accu as they are usually all over the place but it matches up pretty well with LOT.

[midwest buildit]

wow, ugly. lol

 

http://i.imgur.com/ekzKANy.gif

[Tony]

Just my thoughts.....most of our storms/clippers have over performed(qpf wise) this winter compared to what the models were showing so if we have nothing else in our favor then we have to rely on this. This winter has given more than it has taken and you have to go with the trends until the trend finally stops giving.

[Scott26]

Radar doesn't look too good right now. I'm thinking most areas at least north of I-80 will only see the low end of the amounts (3 or 4 inches). This is a decently moisture starved wave and I just don't think anyone is going to see 5 or 6 inches out of this. Still a solid snowfall so no one should complain...

[Tom]

I'm curious to see how much LehS we can get out of this with a solid fetch down the lake.  LOT not to impressed as usually but HRRR is showing an nice lake plume over the lake and that should start swinging over into NE IL later tonight into Sun/Mon.  Lakeside counties could pick up 1-2", maybe 3" in spots if the band can meander over the same localized areas.

[Sciascia]

LOT updated; lowering snow totals to 3-5" north of I-80 with the lower end more likely than high end. Snow should be over & out by midnight.

[james1976]

radar seems way north of models IMO. and the snow feeding in from nebraska is moving straight east and staying north of I80. im pushing 2" this morning already and snowing hard. pushing 3.5" for the weekend already. i have a feeling they will extend advisory northward a bit.

[Sleather]

Izzy from LOT:

 

000
FXUS63 KLOT 011758
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1158 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1158 AM CST

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE UP THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SPREADING GRADUALLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. WILL LIKELY BE NUDGING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWNWARD SOME...PROBABLY MORE INTO THE 3-5" RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH MANY AREAS POSSIBLY WINDING UP ON THE LOWER END OF THAT
RANGE. EVEN SO...A COUPLE/FEW HOURS OF STRONG ASCENT COUPLED WITH
WEAKER STABILITY ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES. ALSO APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL WILL BE WRAPPING UP
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY DONE NORTH OF
I-80 BY MIDNIGHT.

IZZI

&&

[Scott26]

The sun is out, but flurries are falling from the sky. Looks like some heavier returns may made it here in a couple of hours or so.

[Geos]

The sun is out, but flurries are falling from the sky. Looks like some heavier returns may made it here in a couple of hours or so.

 

Exactly what's happening here. A few more clouds now though.

[6789]

The radar is supposedly showing heavy returns, yet I don't have a flake falling lol. This looks like a bust. 

[Jaycee]

it's a bust lol. already most of the NWS offices out here are lowing their amounts significantly. Just can't win out on a big storm this year it seems.

[Geos]

About 15 dbz now. Flakes are like little dust particles falling down.

 

Looks like the event will be good enough to get to 71", maybe 72" for the season.

[East Dubzz]

Moderate to heavy snow right now. Was just little tiny particles earlier, but some nice sized flakes now.

[Tom]

The radar returns in E NE are showing some very impressive 30dbz returns in a west/east orientation and about to enter IA.  If these bands can maintain their intensity we could have some pretty intense snowfall rates around here later this evening.  Looks like anyone N of I-80 is in the zone of heavier returns.

[midwest buildit]

18z nam 12h

 

http://i.imgur.com/VGnG5ao.gif

 

rap 12h

 

http://i.imgur.com/ryMqVSr.gif

 

models cant even agree with each other this close. lol

[Geos]

-SN now. Flakes are still small though.

[NEJeremy]

went from 4-6 to nothing here. at least it will be in the 50s by Thursday and even warmer next week. no big storm showing up next weekend either which I believe is supposed to be another storm per the LRC. although I am sure that storm missed us too since they all have this winter.

[midwest buildit]

i know watching models is pointless this close, but this storm is screwed up anyways.

 

18z nam 18h, and pretty much it for us.

 

http://i.imgur.com/xRTTv3g.gif

 

and 19z 18h rap

 

http://i.imgur.com/hC50KfV.gif

[james1976]

i wouldnt look at models. all the snow is way north of what it is supposed to be which is great for me cuz im right in the thick of it. very nice surprise. moderate snow and 4 degrees. get a measurement in a while. piling up nicely!

[Geos]

I think 3" will be close to the max, excluding this mornings wave. Looks like the front end of this band will be the most intense. 

 

Flakes still small as I type this.

 

Well this explains the small flake size. Warmer air cutting back the DGZ.

 

[james1976]

this is the most winter-like weekend so far this whole winter...snowy and cold! nice fluffy snow thats really piling up. id guess 4" so far but thats not official

[Geos]

It's more or less pouring small flakes here. A few moderate sized flakes making there way down with the others.

 

RAP cuts back the DGZ until late into the evening. But wondering how much moisture will be left by then...

[Scott26]

Coming down extremely hard here.

[Geos]

SN here in the last 15 minutes.

[midwest buildit]

ill admit i dont know much, but looking at this it looks like low level dry air/low dewpoint blocking the moister feed for us?

or am i stupid and looking at it wrong?

just board was expecting snow today.lol

 

http://i.imgur.com/LZjjJZ8.png

http://i.imgur.com/EO8h1PI.png

[Scott26]

Flake size is lame, but it's coming down hard.

[Geos]

Few pics.

 

 

Black and white Juncos at the feeder.

 

[6789]

If it can slow down a bit we may get 3-5" out of it, looks like heavy bands are building back on Iowa. As long as we get a good layer to work with before the heavy bands come in, I think we may do pretty well. It looks like there is a lot of back building in Western Iowa  and Eastern Nebraska as well. 

[DominicR]

Agree and flakes right now are pretty decent size.