Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 NOT warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Very strong and icy cold east wind 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 8 PDX-DLS at least -12mb. High winds in the Gorge, maybe PDX metro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 PDX-DLS at least -12mb. High winds in the Gorge, maybe PDX metro! We finally get a block in Alaska, but there is no base! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That low Saturday takes a perfect track for Hood canal. And even for Olympia north, would be a rain to snow transition event. This track almost always will produce snow in Puget sound even with a very marginal air mass. It would be a crushing storm for the canal. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 So Randy gets buried under a foot of snow and then we go into a cold, dry pattern. All is right with the world again. At least per the GFS. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Morning weather window update here 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We finally get a block in Alaska, but there is no base! Yeah. A weird ridge-bridge complex too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 PDX-DLS at least -12mb. High winds in the Gorge, maybe PDX metro! Approaching system too! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Odds are very high the low will track well north of Puget sound though, extremely rare for them to take the money track like that especially at that strength. 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 9'er 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Odds are very high the low will track well north of Puget sound though, extremely rare for them to take the money track like that especially at that strength. I'm not sure it starts out from the base of the trough and swings north. Some runs on some models have shown it being even more suppressed. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Interesting how that low cuts off and goes down in to California leaving us pretty chilly at the surface. Obviously GFS is probably overdoing the cold, but still definitely a below average pattern at the surface heading into the coldest time of the year. 3 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Man its been a long time since we had a low take the classic track for heavy Puget sound snow like this. 6 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm not sure it starts out from the base of the trough and swings north. Some runs on some models have shown it being even more suppressed. Yeah it's all over the place. Icon has a track similar to gfs. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting how that low cuts off and goes down in to California leaving us pretty chilly at the surface. Obviously GFS is probably overdoing the cold, but still definitely a below average pattern at the surface heading into the coldest time of the year. EPS very similar with low level cold building. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Nam has it tracking south of astoria. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 10 It's okay, this run will change a dozen times after Day 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 GEM has the Saturday low moving straight north into the southern tip of Vancouver Island. As a result the airmass Sunday and Monday does not get as cold either, though still not warm. However, the GEM drops a 2nd trough almost straight south and by Wednesday a very cold trough has settled into the region. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GEM has the Saturday low moving straight north into the southern tip of Vancouver Island. As a result the airmass Sunday and Monday does not get as cold either, though still not warm. However, the GEM drops a 2nd trough almost straight south and by Wednesday a very cold trough has settled into the region. This track makes more sense. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: This track makes more sense. The odds of me getting another 10-14 inch storm this soon just isn't likely. But then we have Feb. 2019. 2 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The odds of me getting another 10-14 inch storm this soon just isn't likely. But then we have Feb. 2019. Well I’m definitely rooting for the southern track. Even though the GFS track won’t deliver snow down here Saturday morning, it leads to better things over the following 48 hours. The fact the GEM is completely different in the mid range shows this thing will fluctuate a lot before the models settle on a solution. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 As Andrew mentioned, the GEM gets cold late in the run. Definitely a much better 500mb pattern with a superb looking block. Potential would be off the charts IF this pattern were to evolve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well I’m definitely rooting for the southern track. Even though the GFS track won’t deliver snow down here Saturday morning, it leads to better things over the following 48 hours. The fact the GEM is completely different in the mid range shows this thing will fluctuate a lot before the models settle on a solution. The correct southern track is better for everyone and for sure colder up here. Even a track 150 miles south of Astoria can deliver a nice event to the sound . 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 There is another arctic trough booking it down the coast at the end of the GEM. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: There is another arctic trough booking it down the coast at the end of the GEM. I really believe we are entering a historical cold spell and this is just the beginning. It just feels like things will stay below average for a long time. 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Got a dusting of something frozen overnight. Looks to be a mixture of snow and drizzle-sized sleet pellets. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, fubario said: You must be fun at parties. An arctic blast at parties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Northern California looks to get hit hard yet again. Seems like they are off to a good start down there this winter. After this next storm cycle we will be sitting pretty. Now if we can avoid the driest Jan-March ever recorded like last winter is another story. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 56 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Michael Snyders is in rout to make and official decision Randy….I have a good feeling he’s going to weigh in with a “yes!”. I say No, snow most likely in the rest of the yard will be gone without a refresher. pile is man created 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 GEFS is much colder around 12th 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Raining in Burlington! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: GEFS is much colder around 12th I'm not allowed to look that far. but i see stuff posted on here so i see a little i guess. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 It's been a pretty impressive run of cooler than normal temps up here. I still haven't been above 40F this month and haven't been above 41F in 9 days. After today it looks like we should get closer to average for a couple days before we end up hanging out below 40F again. Unfortunately it looks like my 8 day stretch of subfreezing lows will end today, but it should start up again in a couple days. 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Raining in Burlington! It's a tradition now to post this 1 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'm not allowed to look that far. but i see stuff posted on here so i see a little i guess. cant look 6 days out on the ensembles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 6z on top, 12z on bottom 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: cant look 6 days out on the ensembles? I try and discipline myself and not look at models past about 120 hrs. I was getting wound up like a coil!! 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Me and my brother were going to go to the cabin and dig out the road but looking at the models i told him Friday night will not be a good time to try and get over the passes or maybe even the lowlands. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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