PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its actually worse now.  

The GEM might be a little conservative... but this is what the 00Z run shows for the next 10 days.

 

Pepto for me! Noice!

[Gradient Keeper]

Big run !

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25.7˚F.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Looks like a goose eating Greenland.

[Kolk1604]

Not as snowy as the GFS, but still plenty of pepto on the GFS within 12 days!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had about 4-5 more nice arctic outbreaks after January 1972, and that was about it. January 1980 was the last really big one down here. Honorable

mention to 1982, 1996, 2004, 2007, 2017. Not really in the same ballpark though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SouthHillFrosty]

I feel like the GFS has been great about picking up opportunities/changes.  The only big bust was Tuesday and even then, ppl scored. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I feel like the GFS has been great about picking up opportunities/changes.  The only big bust was Tuesday and even then, ppl scored. 

Last Tuesday was by far the best day for me.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS Saturday 4 AM looks WINDY!

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO! Day 3

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking GEFS tonight.

BTW...did somebody say the GFS being used now is the new version?

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

25.7˚F.

Looks like I might eek out a 32 before midnight.  The clouds are really thin now.  Might still be something to redeem the mess here today.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive to watch the high and mid level clouds being pressed southward on the sat loop tonight.  According to the models low clouds from the south will arrive about when the high and mid clouds are south of Seattle.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

What was the setup for Seattle to get 20 inches of snow on a day with a high of 19 and a low 11?

You've been doing your homework with historical weather events at KSEA, I see...

1/13/1950

[Meatyorologist]

Not sure what all the hype is about January 1950, tbh

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You've been doing your homework with historical weather events at KSEA, I see...

1/13/1950

What a beast!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not sure what all the hype is about January 1950, tbh

Monthly average 24.9...57.2 inches of snow...

[Winterdog]

Day 5 looking pretty good.  25.4 here, all the fog is gone.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Monthly average 24.9...57.2 inches of snow...

Literally look at the graph, it was so warm tho

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down here January 1950

is the 3rd coldest January behind 1930

and 1949. Up north though 1950

is king. It was the best mix of cold and snow down here too, but some Willamette valley locations did hit the mid-50s that month, for a day or two…

[LowerGarfield]

Still a bust here but the roads are finally coated with snow as well as the sidewalk after a second salt was applied a few hours ago. Still snowing and very light. Pretty at night though.

[MossMan]

Bright moon! 

[snow_wizard]

Good Kona low on this ECMWF run.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Literally look at the graph, it was so warm tho

I saw you picked one of the few warm days.  I think that was just before the second biggest dump that month.

BTW if you want to see a jaw dropper look at the records for Palmer on that late month dump.  Talk about Arctic air meeting maritime air magic!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I saw you picked one of the few warm days.  I think that was just before the second biggest dump that month.

Yes, that was the gag

Absolute insanity ensued just 48 hours later. By the end of the month it it 0 at the airport.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yes, that was the gag

Absolute insanity ensued just 48 hours later. By the end of the month it it 0 at the airport.

If you haven't looked at the records for Palmer with that event you should.  Truly amazing!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a big low may ruin the progression on the ECMWF.  That kind of feature could easily disappear on the next run though.

[WildrootParable]

Lurker emerges for another update:

Just arrived home (500' outside of Gorst) today after two weeks closer to sea level and completely amazed to find that we seemingly lucked out, this event! Husband told me we got about 8-10 inches at the height of it, and it hasn't thawed much since thanks to being mostly in shade. I have a funny feeling we're not going to lose much in between events, if things transpire the way those maps y'all have posted suggest. 

This could be a very interesting winter...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Anti Marine Layer]

In one week we will know what the weather was like one week from today.

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

I miss our SE ridge.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

In one week we will know what the weather was like one week from today.

Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of your life.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 I wonder if the EPS will show that yet again for I think 4 consecutive runs that the Op has been an outlier shoving that ridge over us Day 7-9.