PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This GFS run should be back to showing 50+ inches of snow in Seattle.     After the 3+ feet of snow there this week its going to get a bit tiring.  

50 inches should mean 5 or 6 will verify.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Finished with 1.5” of snow out here. Nothing quite like seeing snow in December as we get closer to Christmas. Hopefully a preview of a bigger regional event  later this winter!  

We need a region wide event.  This have and have not stuff gets tiring.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TacomaWx]

This is starting to feel like we’re going to be in a solidly anomalous pattern like we were this spring…then went through in the summer now it’s back again in late fall/early winter. Seems like we’re getting stuck in a solidly below normal regime again. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This GFS run should be back to showing 50+ inches of snow in Seattle.     After the 3+ feet of snow there this week its going to get a bit tiring.  

I've stopped paying attention to all the model's precip outputs. I'm relying more on the fundamental meteorology and our local climatological leanings. Ironically me losing faith in the GFS/Euro outputs has made me a better forecaster. More often than not this winter, my intuition has proved correct.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Southwestern US

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

50 inches should mean 5 or 6 will verify.

Maybe.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We need a region wide event.  This have and have not stuff gets tiring.

Definitely. Kind of annoyed that we managed only 0.2" of snow out of this whole thing. Our coldest high was today, 39. We only got down to 29 at the coldest so not that great here. Great to see some more chances next week though

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I've stopped paying attention to all the model's precip outputs. I'm relying more on the fundamental meteorology and our local climatological leanings. Ironically me losing faith in the GFS/Euro outputs has made me a better forecaster. More often than not this winter, my intuition has proved correct.

Good call.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Top map looks pregnant.

[Doinko]

More snow on the GFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

New GFS looking like a nice touchdown!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Short term improvements on this run too. The pattern Thursday-the weekend, would be a much better pattern for foothill snow down here than this week was. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Meh that is all phantom snow. PDX never hits freezing. Too bad we didn't build a cold pool during this last "event". Would have been perfect for what the GFS is showing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty insane lows showing up on these runs.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good call.

Today I was wrong though! I expected more of a northward extent and an overperformance north of Seattle. Instead it was a bit south of model projections last night. Again, as is life.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some pretty insane lows showing up on these runs.

Well of course... we will have region wide deep snow cover.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I know better to look, this run is insane. We're going to get hit with something big this year. Maybe snow maybe wind but something big.

[Doinko]

GFS has a major snow/ice storm after day 10

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Well of course... we will have region wide deep snow cover.

I meant low pressure systems. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS has a major snow/ice storm after day 10

Just saw that. WOW

[Doinko]

 

[yellowstone]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

More snow on the GFS

I think we’ve had enough South sound specials this month…

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I meant low pressure systems. 

Ahhhh.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Don't get too excited.  Remember this is the upgraded GFS.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Doinko said:

 

That would be absolutely crippling ice. 

[TacomaWx]

I don’t want to get too excited about next week considering how bad the models were for this week 48 hours out. I do have a pretty good feeling about it though at this time. 

[Meatyorologist]

That's about as good a maritime snowfall pattern as I've ever seen. The kind of stuff that can literally only happen from Dec 10th thru Jan 10th. Some early Jan 1969 vibes.

[TT-SEA]

All of western WA is in the mountains.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Don't get too excited.  Remember this is the upgraded GFS.

This absolutely passes the climo test tho... All of this makes meteorological sense. No obscure strange east wind-cutoff low-heavy precip rate shenanigans.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

All of western WA is in the mountains.  

Even the clown range GFS knows that Portland and most of the Willamette Valley will be screwed yet again

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The icon shows a feature early Saturday a few of the models have been picking up on. This is pretty close to the track of the 12-14-16 storm if I recall correctly. That was snow from about Albany north and Eugene had a significant icing event. It’s the icon so it shows rain, but this track would likely produce snow to the north and northwest of the low. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

All of western WA is in the mountains.  

Just wow.

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This absolutely passes the climo test tho... All of this makes meteorological sense. No obscure strange east wind-cutoff low-heavy precip rate shenanigans.

I was kind of annoyed earlier seeing us not get that much snow but I'm pretty happy now. That was some persistent snow in the air, even if it didn't stick much. Really nice to look outside and watch

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS shows a classic blizzard and epic snow set up for this weekend... this map just screams feet of snow in Seattle.

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Even the clown range GFS knows that Portland and most of the Willamette Valley will be screwed yet again

Yep crippling and devastating ice storm to rub salt into the wound.