PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Holy marginal snowmaggeddon.... 27 straight hours of 31-35F snow in the Puget Sound area!

Ah yes! The perfect recipe for Cascade Concrete!

[Snownerd3000]

Check out this parade of storms. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEFS shows a classic blizzard and epic snow set up for this weekend... this map just screams feet of snow in Seattle.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Don't get too excited.  Remember this is the upgraded GFS.

Interestingly the new GFS is supposed to correct the tendency of the old GFS to show too much snow in marginal snow situations.  And it's supposed to correct the tendency of the old GFS to show not enough snow in very cold conditions.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The icon shows a feature early Saturday a few of the models have been picking up on. This is pretty close to the track of the 12-14-16 storm if I recall correctly. That was snow from about Albany north and Eugene had a significant icing event. It’s the icon so it shows rain, but this track would likely produce snow to the north and northwest of the low. 

Like you mentioned earlier getting a good snow cover east of the Cascades would be great. 

[lowlandsnow]

Has Seattle ever had a blizzard?

 

[Doinko]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Has Seattle ever had a blizzard?

 

1/13/1950 maybe?

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

PNW and the western lowlands are among the snowiest spots in the entire CONUS through 10 days.

 

Take that, East Coast Weenies! (Just kidding. Mostly.)

[Deweydog]

Seems unethical to NOT tell EVERYONE about this.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interestingly the new GFS is supposed to correct the tendency of the old GFS to show too much snow in marginal snow situations.  And it's supposed to correct the tendency of the old GFS to show not enough snow in very cold conditions.

Its actually worse now.  

The GEM might be a little conservative... but this is what the 00Z run shows for the next 10 days.

 

[Requiem]

16 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Meh that is all phantom snow. PDX never hits freezing. Too bad we didn't build a cold pool during this last "event". Would have been perfect for what the GFS is showing.

To be fair, that's a model simulation over 150 hours away-- and PDX does indeed hit freezing for some of it if you take the GFS's wild hallucinations at face value.

[Gummy]

Meanwhile, roads are wet in California.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I’m excited about a pattern it’s probably not incredible below 1000’ unless it’s an arctic blast. 

[lowlandsnow]

What was the setup for Seattle to get 20 inches of snow on a day with a high of 19 and a low 11?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its actually worse now.  

The GEM might be a little conservative... but this is what the 00Z run shows for the next 10 days.

 

Let’s ignore this map, not colorful enough over my house. 

[TT-SEA]

Big picture is no pattern reset... just a continuation of what we have been seeing.    Lots of snow chances and tons of mountain snow.

[Doinko]

GFS clown range looks ready to dump a bunch of snow on us again

[OysterPrintout]

Jim is BACK

 

[MWG]

32 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

This would be great for CA/Southern OR. They need all the rain they can get. I wish @MWG would see some flakes though.

Yes! I'll be happy for just a couple at this point lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do see some potential for snow in the lowlands coming up if one of these lows tracks south. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Big picture is no pattern reset... just a continuation of what we have been seeing.    Lots of snow chances and tons of mountain snow.

Hopefully the models still look good by Thursday and we get as lucky as we did this week here. Hopefully some areas that missed out this round make up for it too. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do see some potential for snow in the lowlands coming up if one of these lows tracks south. 

Getting some jet suppression would be real nice. 

[lowlandsnow]

Cold air to the north there is definitely some potential for next week

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS shows some lowland snow over the next 8 days... probably a little more reasonable.

[Doinko]

GFS just doesn't like Portland. Clown range wants to give us even more ice

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold night in Central Oregon. Bend down to 16, Redmond 10.

[snow_wizard]

Alrighty then!

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All of western WA is in the mountains.  

Even if you divide it by 5 it's not bad!

[snow_wizard]

I would almost call this a rich man's December 1971.  That month featured less than perfect (but still good) block placement with a number of decent snow and fairly cold events.  The 1971 analog has shown up a number times over the past couple of months and is a great ENSO and QBO match.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Cold air to the north there is definitely some potential for next week

BC has certainly had an epic cold start to winter.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its actually worse now.  

The GEM might be a little conservative... but this is what the 00Z run shows for the next 10 days.

 

That is still a lot of snow in eastern WA and some of eastern OR.

[MossMan]

27.7

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would almost call this a rich man's December 1971.  That month featured less than perfect (but still good) block placement with a number of decent snow and fairly cold events.  The 1971 analog has shown up a number times over the past couple of months and is a great ENSO and QBO match.

Even though the January 1972 blast didn’t have snow down here it was extremely cold with something like 10

sub 20 lows and six lows in the single

digits. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Jim is BACK

 

I just had to throw a little fit.  I'm good now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Even though the January 1972 blast didn’t have snow down here it was extremely cold with something like 10

sub 20 lows and six lows in the single

digits. 

I wasn't aware of that.  It was an epic snow event up here.  One of the greatest memories of my childhood.  That was one of those afternoon surprises when everyone was at work and school and snow just plastered the Seattle area in the afternoon.  The bus ride home from school was one for the ages! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Big boom or bust potential for this week. 

[snow_wizard]

This is pretty real!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wasn't aware of that.  It was an epic snow event up here.  One of the greatest memories of my childhood.  That was one of those afternoon surprises when everyone was at work and school and snow just plastered the Seattle area in the afternoon.  The bus ride home from school was one for the ages! 

No but Silver Falls hit 3 with no snow cover. It must have been a very cold airmass. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is pretty real!

As real as the GFS is real.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No but Silver Falls hit 3 with no snow cover. It must have been a very cold airmass. 

For some reason I thought that event was nothing really south of Seattle. Looks like it was actually pretty good here, just not much snow. A 26/19 day at Portland with no precip.