PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend) Talk about an improvement! Are we going back into another favorable low elevation snow pattern? Jet suppression!!!!

Notably different.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You're probably right.  This week is going to blow.  Might get good again toward the end of the week though.  

I still have a sliver of hope for tonight.  I just want it to freeze.

Still gonna be chilly for the next few days with decent negative departures…models are looking like a potentially chilly period with maybe more lowland snow in less than a a week now. For now it looks kinda similar to this weeks Marginal systems but it’s still a ways out. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This isn't just about the snow.  This area sucked in every possible way today.

I am particularly happy for people who got snow today that had struggled to get any before this.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 (4-run trend) Nice trend with the ridge.

I think that 'west trend' you were talking about earlier was really just a short term product of upstream jet weakening and subsequent ridge amplification. Would not be surprised if the 7 day+ timeframe rapidly improves.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think that 'west trend' you were talking about earlier was really just a short term product of upstream jet weakening and subsequent ridge amplification. Would not be surprised if the 7 day+ timeframe rapidly improves.

Sploosh

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

a dusting on grass aka the pdx special®™

Samesies. More than a trace but probably my best chance all month and about the same as you. I was hoping my BIL in Vancouver would share his snow photos but I don't think they had much if anything either.

I probably need a time out since when @MossMan (one of my favorite people) posted he was in the blue, I had a unkind thought cross my mind at first. I promise you I'm normally an optimist. Moss keep posting your photos. I love seeing them.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS shows some more marginal snow on Friday morning... temps shown in mid 30s but timing is favorable.

The next few frames after this are going to be crazy amounts of snow here.

[snow_wizard]

Cold air moving down through BC again on this run for next weekend.

[Deweydog]

A full Jimeltdown would only help our already excellent chances for January…

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You almost gave me a heart attack. 
 

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still gonna be chilly for the next few days with decent negative departures…models are looking like a potentially chilly period with maybe more lowland snow in less than a a week now. For now it looks kinda similar to this weeks Marginal systems but it’s still a ways out. 

Very true.

I need to get over this.  I'm just so pissed how that damn east wind ruined everything here last night.  Warmer max, warmer min, and no snow.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You almost gave me a heart attack. 
 

 

Just getting pumped up for the new movie. Tried to find the original to stream somewhere but I think I’m literally gonna have to pirate it or buy the physical DVD off amazon

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.

I need to get over this.  I'm just so pissed how that D**n east wind ruined everything here last night.  Warmer max, warmer min, and no snow.

At least we have chances for snow again by Friday. 

[Deweydog]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 nearly the same pattern we're in now.

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Samesies. More than a trace but probably my best chance all month and about the same as you. I was hoping my BIL in Vancouver would share his snow photos but I don't think they had much if anything either.

I probably need a time out since when @MossMan (one of my favorite people) posted he was in the blue, I had a unkind thought cross my mind at first. I promise you I'm normally an optimist. 

haha hey it's ok people are CURRENTLY raging on here that saw way more snow from this pattern than we did. Seemed like the local winner today was Gresham-area. Rob looked like he did well and had a buddy out there send me some photos of his dogs romping around in real snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Dangerous. 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This isn't just about the snow.  This area sucked in every possible way today.

I am particularly happy for people who got snow today that had struggled to get any before this.

Try living at sea level. You miss out on a lot. 

However we still have good times though and there's a whole lot of potential ahead. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 nearly the same pattern we're in now.

But but middle of December. Better timing 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.

I need to get over this.  I'm just so pissed how that D**n east wind ruined everything here last night.  Warmer max, warmer min, and no snow.

This is just our first run of winter weather. Overall we pretty much maxed out the potential of this pattern that wasn’t favorable for us multiple times. This is was a solid run and could’ve been much much worse. We’re gonna get a couple more shots for something legit this winter. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You could be one of the best 

[Meatyorologist]

Looks very similar to the 12z Euro run

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.

I need to get over this.  I'm just so pissed how that D**n east wind ruined everything here last night.  Warmer max, warmer min, and no snow.

Who else is monitoring or judging the stats in your backyard?   It's interesting to track but it really doesn't mean anything.  I wouldn't let it get you down.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

A full Jimeltdown would only help our already excellent chances for January…

I know the big picture is good and I'm happy with what has happened so far (except for today).  North of here it was clear and cold, south of here it snowed, here it sucked balls.  It happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Who else is monitoring or judging the stats in your backyard?   It's interesting to track but it really doesn't mean anything.

Very true.  This is something I will be over tomorrow.

[selkirks]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Geez.

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You could be one of the best 

This would be great for CA/Southern OR. They need all the rain they can get. I wish @MWG would see some flakes though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s a holy cow GFS run. Lol

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Kind of another not Arctic, but not just pedestrian chill situation.  If this verifies there will certainly be more lowland snow.

[Doinko]

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s a holy cow GFS run. Lol

Follow up by a Holy Pancakes EURO run. MBG

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 13 minutes

[TT-SEA]

This GFS run should be back to showing 50+ inches of snow in Seattle.     After the 3+ feet of snow there this week its going to get a bit tiring.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Kind of another not Arctic, but not just pedestrian chill situation.  If this verifies there will certainly be more lowland snow.

 

Yep, not arctic, but looking at the surface pattern and 850s, shows east wind, low to our south, deep cold layer over Gorge. Looks very similar to today.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of another not Arctic, but not just pedestrian chill situation.  If this verifies there will certainly be more lowland snow.

Is that like having a smoke while waiting for the bus?

[Meatyorologist]

Holy marginal snowmaggeddon.... 27 straight hours of 31-35F snow in the Puget Sound area!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks very similar to the 12z Euro run

Both of them show 850mb temps bottoming out at -9C. Another period of lowland snow looks like it could be in the cards. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Finished with 1.5” of snow out here. Nothing quite like seeing snow in December as we get closer to Christmas. Hopefully a preview of a bigger regional event  later this winter!  

[snow_wizard]

This falls in just 2 days.