PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The closest observation near my cabin is about 3 miles away so I looked back at the data since November 4th. 

Since the 4th it has been above freezing for only 12hrs!! The average temp has been about 18 degrees.  Talk about a cold month up there, wow!

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A friend of my fiancee was up near steel Bridge on the south slope of the Olympics to go play in the snow and the 2 big storms dropped about 44 inches of snow! This is 800ft elevation.  Incredible! Lake cushman got 3 feet last week.

Oh I thought after thousands of years on this day Bigfoot was finally caught, captured, and then they dressed him up like a logger.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light freezing mist and fog here, 32.1 degrees. 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

This was the 5 minute drive up the hill from SODO to Burien earlier today. If I would have taken the time lapse an hour later it would have been a much snowier scene. The couple hundred feet in elevation goes a long way though. Get that mountain pass feeling without going up to Snoqualmie

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

This week is kind of looking like a letdown from what we've been enjoying.  Maybe the weekend will get us back into something good though.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The moon is shining brightly here... no fog or any precipitation.

Good.  Maybe the clearing will work its way the last little bit to get here.  Absolutely nothing has gone right for this area weatherwise today so I even doubt that.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A friend of my fiancee was up near steel Bridge on the south slope of the Olympics to go play in the snow and the 2 big storms dropped about 44 inches of snow! This is 800ft elevation.  Incredible! Lake cushman got 3 feet last week.

That is an insane amount of snow for 800 feet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big 00z GFS coming up. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA put up a 38/32 today for a -8 departure.  Just an amazing run.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big 00z GFS coming up. 

That it is.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This week is kind of looking like a letdown from what we've been enjoying.  Maybe the weekend will get us back into something good though.

I thought Meaty said we had possible good times this week? 

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's been a theme this fall and winter to overdo jet extension and underamplify ridges in the medium-long range. Before late October this bias worked against us, ever since it has kept us consistently cold. I think as time passes the 14th-20th period will grow increasingly favorable on ensemble means. Could be wrong but I'm hoping!

Maybe we can get some good snow cover over eastern OR and WA. A consistent cold Gorge wind this winter would be great! It was really nice in 2016/2017 with the multiple snow events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know Oregon locales didn’t have a great week, but still some solid negative departures. If we can keep bumping along and pull off something nice toward the end of the month we could have a cool December to run into our epic January.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought Meaty said we had possible good times this week? 

It might just be my sour mood today, but it seems the models have really moderated the min temps this week from what had been shown.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It might just be my sour mood today, but it seems the models have really moderated the min temps this week from what had been shown.

More near sfc moisture and onshore flow. Much less continental influence than previously expected.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows light precip going all night and into tomorrow morning around the South Sound and southern King County.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows light precip going all night and into tomorrow morning around the South Sound and southern King County.

Radar shows precip over us but nothings even falling last I checked. Our snow has barely even melted. Shame we can’t get some really heavy precip and maybe switch to snow again. 

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It might just be my sour mood today, but it seems the models have really moderated the min temps this week from what had been shown.

Yeah, that makes two of us. Kind of a boring week here with temps basically in the twenties and nothing too exciting. I'll check my board tomorrow but it was a major bust here. 2-3 inches was the NWS prediction and I will be lucky to even get .5 total from this system. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Radar shows precip over us but nothings even falling last I checked. Our snow has barely even melted. Shame we can’t get some really heavy precip and maybe switch to snow again. 

Yea it’s 33 here and radar shows snow. Nothing falling out of sky. Raw night out! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows light precip going all night and into tomorrow morning around the South Sound and southern King County.

It shows it could clear out here later tonight.  I want to salvage something out of this night.

[TT-SEA]

GFS actually keeps it drippy and cloudy into Wednesday in King County.    Looks like there is no real clearing.  This band just sort of morphs into the usual weak onshore flow dampness.    

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows it could clear out here later tonight.  I want to salvage something out of this night.

Can't imagine it clearing out.   Here is precip map for early tomorrow morning.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Nice trend with the ridge.

[OysterPrintout]

Was thinking about the timing question - let's assume the snow today in pdx that resulted in a dusting actually came in overnight and the temps worked out. Something like 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. snow so if you're not one of the night shift psychos you miss most of it.

So - which you do you take? Watching it snow for 5 hours and no accumulation or not seeing it snow and waking up to an inch or 2 of snow? I think I prefer today's scenario.

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows some more marginal snow on Friday morning... temps shown in mid 30s but timing is favorable.

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Looking like after all this snow we are getting real close to DP and I'm sure we are heading for freezing fog in the area.  I have lots of driving to do tomorrow.

DP? Didn’t know you were into that stuff Josh!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS shows some more marginal snow on Friday morning... temps shown in mid 30s but timing is favorable.

I’m in the blue! 

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Was thinking about the timing question - let's assume the snow today in pdx that resulted in a dusting actually came in overnight and the temps worked out. Something like 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. snow so if you're not one of the night shift psychos you miss most of it.

So - which you do you take? Watching it snow for 5 hours and no accumulation or not seeing it snow and waking up to an inch or 2 of snow? I think I prefer today's scenario.

I prefer the wake up scenario as it gets you motivated to get up out of bed and measure before it melts. Also it is pretty to watch it fall, but I'd rather have accumulation than falling with nothing sticking. Maddening. Did you get any accumulation at your place?

[RentonHill]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big 00z GFS coming up. 

That is why I got drunk for it

[High Desert Mat?]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows it could clear out here later tonight.  I want to salvage something out of this night.

Just cause you didn’t get some tonight be happy for others. Like last week. Geez Jim. Think about all of us for a change. We love you. Can’t you love us back? 
 

Those mins this week don’t really matter, what matters is if we have a white Xmas. Plus maybe some snow only 2000’ or so. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't imagine it clearing out.   Here is precip map for early tomorrow morning.  

You're probably right.  This week is going to blow.  Might get good again toward the end of the week though.  

I still have a sliver of hope for tonight.  I just want it to freeze.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend) Talk about an improvement! Are we going back into another favorable low elevation snow pattern? Jet suppression!!!!

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

I prefer the wake up scenario as it gets you motivated to get up out of bed and measure before it melts. Also it is pretty to watch it fall, but I'd rather have accumulation than falling with nothing sticking. Maddening. Did you get any accumulation at your place?

a dusting on grass aka the pdx special®™

[RentonHill]

Ya isn’t this what we just went through? 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Just cause you didn’t get some tonight be happy for others. Like last week. Geez Jim. Think about all of us for a change. We love you. Can’t you love us back? 
 

Those mins this week don’t really matter, what matters is if we have a white Xmas. Plus maybe some snow only 2000’ or so. 

This isn't just about the snow.  This area sucked in every possible way today.

I am particularly happy for people who got snow today that had struggled to get any before this.