Doinko Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Trough digs slightly better than the 12z 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Trough digs slightly better than the 12z Looks quite a bit better. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 A little better on the 00z…… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Better early at least. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: These run to run maps are neat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Day 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Cold air quite a bit further south compared to 12z and previous 00z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 PDX NWS The bottom line is that there remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario, deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a particular scenario panning out. -Neuman 3 1 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 The GFS was better early too and was a disaster hopefully the ECMWF is different 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, SnarkyGoblin said: These run to run maps are neat. I agree, that's why I love posting them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, umadbro said: PDX NWS The bottom line is that there remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario, deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a particular scenario panning out. -Neuman Those colors are awful! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS vs EURO for 4pm Monday 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, umadbro said: PDX NWS The bottom line is that there remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario, deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a particular scenario panning out. -Neuman I’m in the 10th shade of blue!! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: The GFS was better early too and was a disaster hopefully the ECMWF is different GEM and GFS are bad for different reasons-- I'm not entirely sure the early changes were the cause of the trainwreck. I think the GFS just resolves small synoptic differences that have huge ramifications downstream differently. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 well this is new 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 A bit more, a quick pscz, and farther south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Portland gets on the board before Seattle!! 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: JAYA says no. JANO 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, OysterPrintout said: well this is new It was actually on yesterday's 00z run as well. Much heavier snow on that run but nice to see this at least 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I’m in the 10th shade of blue!! Definitely somewhere between 5.5-6”! Pretty solid. (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 I find it interesting that some of the pro Mets always default to the GFS over the other models, even the Euro…. 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 When does the operational become more important than ensembles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess I think WA will get a lot of snow from this first system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess Nope, 40’s and rain. JAYA 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks good further south than GEM and GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, lowlandsnow said: I think WA will get a lot of snow from this first system The Sunday one? I am in the PSCZ and hope to get a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 The invisible fence holds a bit here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 No clue if this EURO run will be kind to PDX or give us any kind of offshore flow-- that being said just looking at it it is far cleaner synoptically. Some weird and messy cyclogenesis that's present on the GFS isn't here. 4 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: When does the operational become more important than ensembles? Generally within 4-5 days. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: The Sunday one? I am in the PSCZ and hope to get a couple inches. I was wrong but I thought this run would have a lot of snow for the Tuesday-Wednesday one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: The invisible fence holds a bit here. No forcing mechanism...block is up past Santa. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Day 7 Our block floats into the great beyond. Plenty of time to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Wow gfs, gem, ecmwf, gefs, and the icon were all bad 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Definitely could be a poor man's January 2012 from the looks of things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 00z runs tonight 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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