jaster220 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 In other news, parts of the "Land Down Under" have had their coldest start to Winter in over a Century...cold Antarctic prob has something to do with it. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4564454/Coldest-start-winter-Australia-128-years.html And in a response by a local Ausie reader.. It was only 2 weeks ago the so called experts forecast a record warm winter for Australia due to above average sea temps in the Pacific. Yes 2 weeks ago. This is exactly why there are skeptics on global warming. Which got the name changed to climate change. Because they are always wrong. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Middle of the night Tstorm.....picked up 1.05" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Nice corridor of heavy rains...looks similar to a track of a Clipper, don't it??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 I saw a glimpse of the new Euro Seasonal and it blossoms the Alaskan Ridge in November with a trough carved out in the west/central CONUS along with a EC Ridge. In December, the entire hemispheric pattern amplifies and a big trough forms over the central/eastern CONUS. Looks like the west coast ridge becomes a dominant feature with a slight SE ridge. In January, the NW NAMER ridge blossoms as well as the EC ridge. An ideal pattern for fans of winter weather on our forum! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 1.22" here overnight, a nice widespread soaker for the area. NW through SE Iowa are still very dry, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 And in a response by a local Ausie reader..I love the local area only thought process "Geez in my state it was cold last winter. Pfft to GLOBAL warming." This of course is a larger area than a state, but you get my point.Just like when we get a record low in the summer or a record high in the winter and people say it's one way or the other in regards to global warming. That specific event individually doesn't mean sh*t. Every month this year, the planet has been in the top 3 warmest since record keeping of this type began in 1880, keeping with the same pattern we've seen for decades now(save for 1 or 2 exceptions).That's all I'm going to say about this as this isn't the thread for that and this topic has been laid out on this forum where everyone's opinions are already known. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 I love the local area only thought process "Geez in my state it was cold last winter. Pfft to GLOBAL warming." This of course is a larger area than a state, but you get my point.Just like when we get a record low in the summer or a record high in the winter and people say it's one way or the other in regards to global warming. That specific event individually doesn't mean sh*t. Every month this year, the planet has been in the top 3 warmest since record keeping of this type began in 1880, keeping with the same pattern we've seen for decades now(save for 1 or 2 exceptions).That's all I'm going to say about this as this isn't the thread for that and this topic has been laid out on this forum where everyone's opinions are already known. I'm reading you loud-n-clear on the "micro climate" thought process. The ONLY kick-back to that would be the "coldest start in 128 years" which nobody would expect correlating with a warm winter. Ofc, still a lot of their winter to play out down unda, so the jury's still out on the call for a warm winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 So far it has been a rather damp day, but no severe weather as of yet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2017 The Legacy Definition of the Monsoon Season here in the valley is 3+ days with dew points of 55F+ and we officially hit the 3rd day today! It's been an amazing sight to see every night with storms moving in off the mountains into the valley with flashes of lighting and rumbles of thunder. Speaking of thunder, I was awaken by storms that blew up around midnight last night. I certainly love the change in the pattern over here. This time of year can get real beautiful looking up into the sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Beautiful day today here in SEMI, although tomorrow the weather might be quite different. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The Legacy Definition of the Monsoon Season here in the valley is 3+ days with dew points of 55F+ and we officially hit the 3rd day today! It's been an amazing sight to see every night with storms moving in off the mountains into the valley with flashes of lighting and rumbles of thunder. Speaking of thunder, I was awaken by storms that blew up around midnight last night. I certainly love the change in the pattern over here. This time of year can get real beautiful looking up into the sky.The anvils over the mountains here in California are spectacular. Saw the best overshooting top I've ever seen today. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The anvils over the mountains here in California are spectacular. Saw the best overshooting top I've ever seen today.I saw some beauties yesterday as well. I'm getting some outflow from storms as we speak. Fun time of year around these parts when the wx is normally quite boring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 My place back home is getting some unexpected strong training storms and a Flash Flood warning was issued. Up to 2" of rains has fallen is a short period of time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Reports of over 5" of rain have fallen...insane downpours! 3-5" of rain in this band... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Beautiful day today here in SEMI, although tomorrow the weather might be quite different. My place back home is getting some unexpected strong training storms and a Flash Flood warning was issued. Up to 2" of rains has fallen is a short period of time. From abnormally dry to flood watches. I swear this is the most bi-polar spring into summer I can remember. Seems like normal wx can't exist around here lately Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 My place is getting rocked again! Severe T-storm warning with quarter sized hail. Last night's torrential rains prompted a Flash Flood Emergency for McHenry/Lake counties. Some parts got 5.5" of rain...seems like July is always a very wet month around these parts. Last year, we got drenched and it seems to be repeating again this year. Tons of flooding happening all across the northern burbs. http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab4FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 After this latest round of morning storms, the totals are rising fast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The latest JAMSTEC run came in today and it has flipped colder for the Autumn and warmer for the Winter. Moreover, it does not have a central-based El Nino anymore and more of a neutral (+) SST anomaly. Wet/Cool Autumn for the central CONUS...warm on both coasts... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif Europe still looks very cold and so do parts of Russia. I wouldn't necessarily sound the alarms for next winter bc when you look at the SST's in the N PAC and equatorial PAC, it looks good to me. SON... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif DFM... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif 2-year ENSO Forecast... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 After this latest round of morning storms, the totals are rising fast! Getting hammered in St. Joe right now. Mostly a deluge of wind-driven rain that looks something like a land falling hurricane (in miniature ofc) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 This is a cool shot of a plane flying through the sun and a sunspot being captured in the image as well... http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/12jul17/sunspotconjunction_strip.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Outstanding flooding going on in the northern burbs back home... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Gonna be a hot one next week in LNK. Very strong South winds too to make things worse. Could see our first 100* reading of the season (came close in June at 98* but no cigar). Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The latest JAMSTEC run came in today and it has flipped colder for the Autumn and warmer for the Winter. Moreover, it does not have a central-based El Nino anymore and more of a neutral (+) SST anomaly. I wouldn't mind this if it meant a cold Fall with numerous freezes in October and maybe a Thanksgiving with white stuff on the ground. I'm a huge cold and snow lover but if we get a quick start during the Fall then it scales back in December I wouldn't mind as long as we don't have near-record low snowfall again. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Had a heatburst last night at the Omaha airport. It was still 84 degrees at 3am(ridiculous anyway), and then the winds gusted up to 35 mph and at 4am it was 90 degrees!I've seen even more ridiculous jumps as well as dewpoints that drop way lower than what happened last night, but still kind of cool. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 These totals are getting nuts... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 8"? WOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Lightning strike at ORD this morning that hit right next to a docked plane! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 8"? WOW!These would be nice snowfall totals...but rain??? Some serious flooding happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 These would be nice snowfall totals...but rain??? Some serious flooding happening.Hopefully tonight's storms miss those locations. Even another 1" will be devastating, the Fox river is already predicted to reach record threshold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Here was another met's constructed analog for ASO period...looks similar to the JASTEC run today...CFSv2 also pretty much with the same idea... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Hopefully tonight's storms miss those locations. Even another 1" will be devastating, the Fox river is already predicted to reach record threshold.I wasn't expecting this much rain as all the high rez models were showing S WI getting creamed by the training storms. Nature throws a curve ball! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The Des Plaines River is forecast to head into Major Flooding...some parts in Lake county will see record heights... http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/ldri2_hg.png http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/guni2_hg.png http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/rusi2_hg.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Back home, my town may set a record also! D**n! http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/dspi2_hg.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 These totals are getting nuts... That is impressive! I believe it though, the humidity is oppressive around these parts. I just got a surprise thunderstorm not long ago, ended up picking up .80" in ten minutes!! Couple that with the .40" from last night and we have a lot of happy farmers.....and gardeners 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 That is impressive! I believe it though, the humidity is oppressive around these parts. I just got a surprise thunderstorm not long ago, ended up picking up .80" in ten minutes!! Couple that with the .40" from last night and we have a lot of happy farmers.....and gardeners Tons of moisture in the air for these storms to tap into. Skies are now just starting to clear up which may aid in more storm development later tonight. I sure hope there isn't a repeat of what happened over the past 12-15 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Lots of rainfall fell today within a short amount of time. The soil is completely saturated. Any more heavy rains that do fall will lead to a lot of flooding. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 A solid storm this evening dropped a quick 0.75-1.25" through Cedar Rapids. My total is 0.83". It's a nice way to end the action as we head into a dry pattern. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 A solid storm this evening dropped a quick 0.75-1.25" through Cedar Rapids. My total is 0.83". It's a nice way to end the action as we head into a dry pattern.Looks like that cell is heading right towards Chitown. It'll only exasperate the rising rivers. My neighbor took some pics of my place and there was no damage or flooding. Phew! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just an enormous amount of water fell out of the heavens... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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