July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

I said setting up to be.

 

Looking beyond just SEA, most of the region has been pretty dry for a couple months. The only thing preventing it from being historically dry for that period was a couple wet days in mid June.

 

It's been a very dry pattern overall, and looks to continue.

 

I understand your general point... but you can't cherry pick days to remove from your analysis.   If we remove a couple days this past winter then SEA had no snow.  

[Phil]

Most of the region was drier than normal in May. Numbers.

 

May17PNormWRCC-NW.png

Not in the lowlands, though. #facts

[Front Ranger]

I understand your general point... but you can't cherry pick days to remove from your analysis.   If we remove a couple days this past winter then SEA had no snow.  

 

Not cherry-picking. I was comparing to your point about the number of rainy days Feb-Apr compared to the number of rainy days mid May to now. It's definitely been below average the past 60 days.

 

And even with a couple very wet days, it's still been drier than normal across the region.

[Front Ranger]

Not in the lowlands, though. #facts

 

The lowlands of OR are in fact part of the PNW.

[Phil]

Not cherry-picking. I was comparing to your point about the number of rainy days Feb-Apr compared to the number of rainy days mid May to now.

 

And even with a couple very wet days, it's still been drier than normal across the region.

Yeah, and J/A/S 2016 was cooler than average "across the region" as well.

 

Can't have it both ways, my friend.

[Phil]

The lowlands of OR are in fact part of the PNW.

Much of the coastal OR lowlands were wetter than average too.

 

#facts

[Front Ranger]

Much of the coastal OR lowlands were wetter than average too.

 

#facts

 

The majority of the PNW, without cherry-picking any particular micro-region, was drier than average in May. Not hard to see.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, and J/A/S 2016 was cooler than average "across the region" as well.

 

Can't have it both ways, my friend.

 

 

Still thinking the June 1 - July 15 period ends up "troughy and cool" for the PNW?

[Phil]

The majority of the PNW, without cherry-picking any particular micro-region, was drier than average in May. Not hard to see.

You do realize those maps are based on preliminary data, right?

 

Here are the finalized NOAA numbers:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F8BA51FD-671D-438A-B2D5-C984CCB76346_zpsy34lyk1n.png

[Front Ranger]

You do realize those maps are based on preliminary data, right?

 

Here are the finalized NOAA numbers:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F8BA51FD-671D-438A-B2D5-C984CCB76346_zpsy34lyk1n.png

 

Yeah, that doesn't really prove your point. And I'm not sure why less detailed data would be more accurate in this case.

 

It's been a warm/dry past couple months in the PNW. No way around that, really.

[Phil]

 

Still thinking the June 1 - July 15 period ends up "troughy and cool" for the PNW?

How did that -AO work out for ya last winter?

 

Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop

[BLI snowman]

I said setting up to be.

 

Looking beyond just SEA, most of the region has been pretty dry for a couple months. The only thing preventing it from being historically dry for that period was a couple wet days in mid June.

 

It's been a very dry pattern overall, and looks to continue.

 

Pretty typical of this point in the year though, we still have a long ways to go.

 

Look at a year like 1952 or 1967 if you want to see truly historic dry stretches in this region.

[Phil]

How did that -AO work out for ya last winter?

 

Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop

- Top-10 warmest May.

 

- No early-Feb event for Puget Sound.

 

Barely scratching the surface here.

[Phil]

Averaging May/June. Looks wetter than average across most of the west side, especially around Puget Sound.

 

So no, it hasn't been a "dry couple of months".

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DFC54EB-7C15-469A-B35C-8DA899BADD2B_zpsp3k9o0kf.png

[TT-SEA]

Averaging May/June. Looks wetter than average across most of the west side, especially around Puget Sound.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DFC54EB-7C15-469A-B35C-8DA899BADD2B_zpsp3k9o0kf.png

 

It was a little wetter than normal for the Puget Sound region for May/June combined.    But if you want to include all of the inland areas then you can say the PNW in general was drier than normal.   That does not mean much to us here though.   It was normal to slightly wetter than normal overall in our area... but it was all focused in the first half of May and 2 days in June.    

[TT-SEA]

Quite the marine layer day across SW WA and NW OR.   

 

Its been sunny here all day... low clouds made it up to the back side of the ridge behind our house but never crossed that barrier.  

[ShawniganLake]

Quite the marine layer day across SW WA and NW OR.

 

Its been sunny here all day... low clouds made it up to the back side of the ridge behind our house but never crossed that barrier.

A sunny and breezy 74 here today.

[stuffradio]

I had some clouds for a while this morning, but it has since burned up.

[Deweydog]

I had some clouds for a while this morning, but it has since burned up.

Fire is the devil's only friend.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty typical of this point in the year though, we still have a long ways to go.

 

Look at a year like 1952 or 1967 if you want to see truly historic dry stretches in this region.

 

The number of rainy days has been well below normal for the past 60 days. Depending on how the next 60 days go, could be looking at a historically low number for a 120 day period for many places. Obviously, a stretch like 1967, 1970, or 1987 will be tough to beat.

[Front Ranger]

How did that -AO work out for ya last winter?

 

Oh, let's not forget January 2013. #micdrop

 

 

- Top-10 warmest May.

 

- No early-Feb event for Puget Sound.

 

Barely scratching the surface here.

 

For the record...

 

1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.

2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.

3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.

4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound.

 

Does this mean you're finally admitting your call for a troughy/cool early summer is not happening?

[Phil]

For the record...

 

1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.

No, I predicted a -NAM (domain extends to stratopause). That prediction ended up correct except for January.

 

2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.

Yeah, no. You were super bullish on an Arctic blast that month, and everyone here remembers it. Even today, you still try to "elevate" that month into something it isn't.

 

3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.

I think everyone here remembers this one, too. Trying to make your forecasts as vague as possible (stuff like "May will be MUCH nicer than April", etc) simply won't cut it.

 

4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound.

I have screen-shots of this one somewhere. You were against the idea when models took a wrong turn and you thought you could score a coup. Or something along those lines.

[Front Ranger]

Oh, Phil.

 

[Deweydog]

For the record...

 

1. You were onboard for a -AO last winter, too.

2. Jan 2013 is when, in my winter outlook in November, I predicted would be the best chance that winter for an Arctic air mass. Jan 2013 is when the PNW and West saw the coldest air of the winter.

3. Top 10 warmest May was not a prediction, just a possibility thrown out mid month. It ended up as a solidly warm May.

4. I never said there would not be an early Feb event for the Puget Sound.

 

Does this mean you're finally admitting your call for a troughy/cool early summer is not happening?

It's a good thing we're getting this on the record.

[ShawniganLake]

Some serious flare ups in the BC interior today.

[luminen]

After a Dec-Apr period that featured a predominantly cool West/warm East pattern across the U.S., we've now seen mainly the opposite for the past 2 months.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

 

And after a very wet late winter/early spring, the PNW has turned pretty dry over the same period.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

It seems the PNW has transitioned into a wet fall, dry winter, wet spring, dry summer regime, which is interesting considering that parts of Central Asia also have this pattern. It hasn't rained significantly here in quite a while. I don't even remember when it last rained and all the grass is quickly turning yellow/brown.

[WeatherArchive]

It's a good thing we're getting this on the record.

Should I type it up on my Stenotype? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I9SwGtqJxaw/TdGv_0uXgUI/AAAAAAAAAEI/UlLeTd81xKs/s1600/diamante2.gif

[DareDuck]

It was a little wetter than normal for the Puget Sound region for May/June combined. But if you want to include all of the inland areas then you can say the PNW in general was drier than normal. That does not mean much to us here though. It was normal to slightly wetter than normal overall in our area... but it was all focused in the first half of May and 2 days in June.

Yea I like how a wet Puget Sound and coast translates to a wetter than average 2 months for the PNW. Not hard to see that the most of the PNW has been dry for the past 2 months.

[ShawniganLake]

The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there.

 

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351

[ShawniganLake]

The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there.

 

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351

That fire burned 8000+acres in the past 5 hours.

[wx_statman]

The town of Cache creek has been evacuated due to a wildfire. Hard to believe just back in May the same town was hit by flooding that took the life of their fire chief. Rough couple of months there.

 

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4195351.

 

100 Mile House was being threatened by a fire today as well. I see their nightly box office report at work (South Cariboo Theatre). They actually stayed open and played a movie tonight, but apparently parts of the town were being evacuated. 

[ShawniganLake]

100 Mile House was being threatened by a fire today as well. I see their nightly box office report at work (South Cariboo Theatre). They actually stayed open and played a movie tonight, but apparently parts of the town were being evacuated.

We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her.

 

Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today.

[wx_statman]

We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her.

 

Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today.

 

That's good that it seems to be missing the town proper. 

[Jesse]

I don't want to upset anybody by talking about where I am today, but I do find it notable that PDX has seen no 60+ lows in July thus far, without a lot of opportunities in sight. Very nice pattern we are in.

[Jesse]

We have a cabin to the SE of there. Sounds like the fire was burning on the north end of town, between 103 and 108 Mile. My mom called and said there wasn't any fire too close to her.

 

Provincial state of emergency has been issued as fires flared up all over the province today.

Yikes. Hope everyone is ok that you know. It seems like huge wildfires are so common up there in recent years.

[ShawniganLake]

Yikes. Hope everyone is ok that you know. It seems like huge wildfires are so common up there in recent years.

Things got bad really fast around the province yesterday. The news is reporting 36,000 people have been evacuated as of this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Things got bad really fast around the province yesterday. The news is reporting 36,000 people have been evacuated as of this morning.

 

 

Nature is messing with us this year... rains almost non-stop for months and then completely shuts off.   Floods and fire.  

 

Be nice to have an occasional soaking rain once in awhile during the summer.    I think it might start turning smoky soon depending on the upper level flow.  

[TT-SEA]

And then you have Sitka... their forecast has looked the same all summer.    This would be a bad November forecast here.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Fairbanks looks lovely though...

 

[Deweydog]

I think this summer may be known for being the summer we couldn't go three days without a Sitkupdate.