Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 PDX's 89 at noon running three degrees behind the 7-28-09 noon temperature. Four degrees behind 7-29-09. #pedestrian Smoke could be holding things down just a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The 12Z EURO looked a little more reasonable overall than some of the crazy GFS runs lately. Still very hot, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 We're in a drier airmass though. We're +1 on 7/21/2006 with similar dp's.Definitely not a totally linear comparison. We could get a little more of a bump with maybe a bit stronger offshore flow but I'm thinking 103 is the number. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Smoke could be holding things down just a bit.I don't think so. Hour to hour temp rises have been pretty in line with what you'd expect with full sun. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I don't think so. Hour to hour temp rises have been pretty in line with what you'd expect with full sun.A pedestrian full sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Up to 84 now. Took a quick shot of the smoke/haze in the air in Woodinville. I think I smell a hint of smoke out there. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Hey Tim, I would be interested in seeing the 12z Euro output for PDX when you get a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 A pedestrian full sun.A sweaty pedestrian. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=offFor sure. That also lead to a very long stretch of 90s here in its wake, which would make it a potentially good match to this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 There's a decent breeze out of the NW here too, which is nice. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Definitely not a totally linear comparison. We could get a little more of a bump with maybe a bit stronger offshore flow but I'm thinking 103 is the number. I'm still thinking we have a solid shot at 105. We're +2 @ 1:00pm on both 7/27/2009 and 7/30/2015, both of which hit 103, and +1 on 7/21/2006 which hit 104. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Up to 88F here. Further inland, lake Cowichan is showing 92F. Seems like the smoke is mixing down to the surface. The sun feels stronger, but you can clearly see and smell the smoke at the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I'm still thinking we have a solid shot at 105. We're +2 @ 1:00pm on both 7/27/2009 and 7/30/2015, both of which hit 103, and +1 on 7/21/2006 which hit 104.Should see a bump soon with some drying. Hillsboro already cashed in on it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Hey Tim, I would be interested in seeing the 12z Euro output for PDX when you get a chance. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I just checked. Looks like they never (since 1948 anyway) had 5 straight summers reach 100 until reeling off 9 straight from 2002-2010. Then a couple year break in 2011-12, followed by the current 5 year streak.Wow that's incredible. 14 of 16 years have reached 100. Pretty crazy for the elevation and how far north we are. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Should see a bump soon with some drying. Hillsboro already cashed in on it. PDX is lagging right now. 101 at HIO and 99 at TTD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Really thick in Seattle now... I thought it was bad out here but its much better than places closer to the Sound... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Hmm. Even at the 2:25 obs, the temp @ PDX is only 98-99. Raw METAR shows a rounded value of 37C, which means it's anywhere between 36.5C and 37.4C - in other words, between 97.7F and 99.3F. 105 seems less likely at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 If the winds drop at any point, we could still spike right up. That's the wildcard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 If the winds drop at any point, we could still spike right up. That's the wildcard.They just need a little pop from the downslope. Looks like Troutdale just got it to surface a bit. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 They just need a little pop from the downslope. Looks like Troutdale just got it to surface a bit. Yeah, E @ 9 all of a sudden. We're close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yeah, E @ 9 all of a sudden. We're close.Timing of the drying could end up perfect. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Really thick in Seattle now... I thought it was bad out here but its much better than places closer to the Sound... Yeah people I know down in the city say it's really hazy. Camera at the Edmonds Ferry Landing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Up to 105 in Aurora although their obs lately have seemed a little toasterrific. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 At 8000' on Mt Bachelor right now. Watching the smoke from the fire on Mt Jefferson grow. Attempted a PYCU a couple times but too much wind now. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Sooke, BC camera. Lot of smoke. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=offYeah it's gorgeous here today. Brisk east wind this morning that blew any remaining smoke out and we've topped out in the low 70's this afternoon. Definitely nicet to finally be on the downstream out this way. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Visibility is Whistler is being reported as less than 1 mi in smoke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Up to 105 in Aurora although their obs lately have seemed a little toasterrific. It could be another ASOS sensor acting up, but that's also a hot part of the valley. Aurora/Canby/Oregon City usually run a couple degrees warmer than Portland on days like this anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 It could be another ASOS sensor acting up, but that's also a hot part of the valley. Aurora/Canby/Oregon City usually run a couple degrees warmer than Portland on days like this anyway.105 in Salem too. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Some pockets of Unhealthy air quality in the region. https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_state&stateid=49&mapcenter=1&tabs=0 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yeah it's gorgeous here today. Brisk east wind this morning that blew any remaining smoke out and we've topped out in the low 70's this afternoon. Definitely nicet to finally be on the downstream out this way. Yeah, you guys had a scorcher of a July. Second place behind only 2007 at a couple locations I checked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 McMinnville riding at 104f and smoke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBurnabyWeather Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 When was the last time a heat wave ended with widespread thunderstorm activity in coastal sections of WA/OR/BC, instead of the more typical marine push and shifting winds? Continuing on that subject, has there ever been a cycle of heat, storms, more heat (i.e. the storms don't bring much relief) in these parts? Such a pattern is fairly typical in the Mid-Atlantic Finally, will this forthcoming monster heat wave bring elevated humidity levels and lows in the 70s? Like, 3pm dewpoints in the upper 50s-low 60s (15-17 Celsius), pretty much Arizona monsoon-level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 105 in Salem too. Yeah, NE wind there too. I would have liked to see more of a jump at PDX between 2-3pm. I'm looking at days like 8/10/1981 (100 to 105), 7/21/2006 (97 to 102) and 7/30/2015 (95 to 100). None of those days had an east wind surface during the hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yeah, NE wind there too. I would have liked to see more of a jump at PDX between 2-3pm. I'm looking at days like 8/10/1981 (100 to 105), 7/21/2006 (97 to 102) and 7/30/2015 (95 to 100). None of those days had an east wind surface during the hour.Without a dew point drop they're gonna have issues getting past 102 or 103. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Timing of the drying could end up perfect. 7/30/1965 is about the only analog for that scenario. Wind shift from W to NE and a recovery from 91 at 2pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 7/30/1965 is about the only analog for that scenario. Wind shift from W to NE and a recovery from 91 at 2pm.Offshore flow is pretty weak. They've probably got about an hour to see a spike from the drying but I'm still liking 103. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 When was the last time a heat wave ended with widespread thunderstorm activity in coastal sections of WA/OR/BC, instead of the more typical marine push and shifting winds? Continuing on that subject, has there ever been a cycle of heat, storms, more heat (i.e. the storms don't bring much relief) in these parts? Such a pattern is fairly typical in the Mid-Atlantic Finally, will this forthcoming monster heat wave bring elevated humidity levels and lows in the 70s? Like, 3pm dewpoints in the upper 50s-low 60s (15-17 Celsius), pretty much Arizona monsoon-level. Mid-August 2008 comes to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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