PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Weiner Warrior]

Weird mix of snow and frozen drizzle in bellevue right now.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF pulling back some on cold... 00Z run on top and new 12Z on bottom.

It’s over.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Highs Wednesday...

 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF pulling back some on cold... 00Z run on top and new 12Z on bottom.

That’s a pretty decent pull back

[snow_wizard]

Obviously the ECMWF is sticking to it's very cold guns.  Only a very slight moderation from earlier runs.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s over.

You will have snow on the ground and temps in the 20s and be using your plow and taking pics... it will be a great week for Randy!  

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Supposed to be a date night with the wifey in Bellevue.  Might be an interesting drive home to Woodinville.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Timmy said:

That’s a pretty decent pull back

That is a bit.  The 500mb stuff is still rock solid though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You will have snow on the ground and temps in the 20s and be using your plow and taking pics... it will be a great week for Randy!  

Not sure why he's not happy.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the ECMWF is sticking to it's very cold guns.  Only a very slight moderation from earlier runs.

Looks like the 12z from yesterday to me. 00z tonight will be colder again 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF pulling back some on cold... 00Z run on top and new 12Z on bottom.

All things considered it’s not a horrible

solution. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the ECMWF is sticking to it's very cold guns.  Only a very slight moderation from earlier runs.

What planet do you live on?

[Omegaraptor]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, at this point I have just accepted I am an Oregon poster in a Washington weather group. I made some failed attempts to create Oregon centric threads a few years ago, but they never took off for that reason. Just not enough of us to make it work. By and large it’s fine though. 

Weatherwest has people in cold and snowy northern CA mountain climates posting alongside people with 68 degree average highs in January. We’ll do fine.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the ECMWF is sticking to its very cold guns.  Only a very slight moderation from earlier runs.

False 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well… Highs around 40 in the WV is still below normal! 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What planet do you live on?

[Doinko]

At least Thursday still looks cold

[FroYoBro]

Up to 33 degrees here.

It's all over.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why he's not happy.

Sorry sarcasm. Though I do not like seeing any pullbacks…Unless it makes it snower and still cold. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Updated map for Tuesday event... still snowing into the evening.

Nice event for the Seattle area.

Looks decent for King County tomorrow night as well.

[Sandy rocks]

As a long time Portland east sider. I still think these models do not take the gorge into account very much. Some of the maps show gorge outflow but many do not. I have seen over forty years what the gorge can do. In 1980 areas near the gorge had a foot of snow and 25 miles from the river it was raining. On one side of the tunnel going towards Beaverton it was raining and on the other side it was snowing. That's how powerful the gorge can be.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Here comes the ZR

[Doinko]

Ice storm and a daytime temp of 19 degrees on Thursday on this run

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What planet do you live on?

Just leave me alone.  You are the one that said November would end up above normal.  How did that work out.

BTW I was talking about the 500mb level.  I hadn't looked at anything else yet.

[Weiner Warrior]

[Prairiedog]

23 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

This thing is getting cancelled and uncancelled too many times to count anymore

That means the guys on this forum are doing their job.  They rock.  Watch and learn.  It's why they're the GOAT's of the weather forums. 

[Perturbed Member]

The "event" for down here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Ugh. As much as I would love to see valley locations pull off a sub freezing high… Maybe punting that to mid January to avoid ice would be a fair trade. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

At least Thursday still looks cold

Let’s hope we can hold onto it.

I took a pretty long break from posting/model riding yesterday afternoon and evening for some family and Christmas stuff. Although the couple times I checked the GFS ensemble charts I noticed it wasn’t backing down at all. Figured if it didn’t crack by this morning’s runs (it didn’t) it wouldn’t be a great sign for the extreme cold shown on the Euro/UKMET/KOREAN et al. Extreme cold is the rarest bird of all these days unless you live east of the Cascades or north of Seattle.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[YahRaEl]

Flurries/Sprinkles mix in Belltown Seattle

[TT-SEA]

Freezing rain per ECMWF... warms up Friday morning so its short lived for the Seattle area.

 

[Snownerd3000]

not a fan of how this has zero transition for the Thursday storm.  Essentially all ZR for most but the most NW portions of WA

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s hope we can hold onto it.

I took a pretty long break from posting/model ridging yesterday afternoon and evening for some family and Christmas stuff. Although the couple times I checked the GFS ensemble charts I noticed it wasn’t backing down at all. Figured if it didn’t crack by this morning’s runs (it didn’t) it wouldn’t be a great sign for the extreme cold shown on the Euro/UKMET/KOREAN et al. Extreme cold is the rarest bird of all these days unless you live east of the Cascades or north of Seattle.

It is. I’m fully expecting February and March to deliver epic troughing and multiple bouts with -12C 850mb temps with maritime sources airmasses. 

[TT-SEA]

Temps at 4 p.m. on Friday... still dicey for Portland area.

[WildrootParable]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

That means the guys on this forum are doing their job.  They rock.  Watch and learn.  It's why they're the GOAT's of the weather forums. 

I like to think of it like the difference between being told the answer to a math problem versus being taught the formula for how to get the answer yourself. Sure, I can wait until the day-of and look at a forecast and get a close approximation to what is likely to happen, but I would much rather learn about the mechanisms behind why our weather is so unique in this region, and maybe even get clued in to surprises and shifts earlier than the mainstream forecasts can do. 

Does this mean the answer is going to evolve over time as we get closer to an event? Sure. But that's what I sign up for by sitting in this particular classroom. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

That’s not good. 

[RentonHill]

Agree with @Kayla time to start tracking this thing real time and looking for January goodies in the Le Misambles

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

not a fan of how this has zero transition for the Thursday storm.  Essentially all ZR for most but the most NW portions of WA

Yeah... 850mb temps are just above 0C before precip arrives so its all freezing rain per ECMWF.