PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

No question that the wimpy onshore push the Euro shows would do little or nothing to scour our PDX on Saturday, in that scenario. Takes more than 10mph WSW winds aloft to mix out a thoroughly entrenched low level cold pool that advects them down to 15.

Confidence appears to be growing in the CAA actually happening. The EPS and GEFS are both very cold but the EPS is actually even more aggressive than the usually cold biased GFS.  

EPS, GFS, CMCE. The operational runs more or less are in line too. 

It seems like some kind of impactful event on Thursday is maybe more likely than not at this point. Now I am becoming more curious about what that approaching warm front looks like and how well the cold pool can hold up against it. 

Have your thoughts changed about how this goes?

[North_County]

2 minutes ago, flya00 said:

Woke up to solid snowfall in Kelowna. Currently 7F with a Wind Chill of -11F.

I've always wanted to take a trip up to Kelowna. Maybe now that the border is open again it will be in the cards soon.

Do you live there? Or just visiting? It would be great to get some regular observations from that area when cold air starts moving south. 

[MikeInEverett]

Yeah that CZ can stay right where it is

[snow_wizard]

NAM is good on Tuesday.  I usually don't rely much on that model though.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That would be very snowy from about Seattle northward.

South of Seattle too.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

NAM is good on Tuesday.  I usually don't rely much on that model though.

NAM is totally dry on Tuesday... it shows the Tuesday system happening on Wednesday.

[Hawksfan2008]

Area to watch for over performance. In line with the EURO. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

NAM is totally dry on Tuesday... it shows the Tuesday system happening on Wednesday.

Yep 7am to about 2pm

[bainbridgekid]

Just started as all snow here in South Everett despite being 40 degrees at onset. Big flakes pouring down here now. 

[joelgombiner]

The C-zone setup looks pretty ideal to my amateur eye. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

NAM is totally dry on Tuesday... it shows the Tuesday system happening on Wednesday.

Didn't even notice!

[Cold Snap]

Getting a graupel shower! Currently 39.

[MossMan]

Very frustrating day. Snow starts dumping down turning everything white, then it stops and mostly melts. Then the same thing over and over. Now the sun is coming back out. Sad. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just started as all snow here in South Everett despite being 40 degrees at onset. Big flakes pouring down here now. 

It could snow all night and your scorching hot ground will not allow accumulation.   

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just started as all snow here in South Everett despite being 40 degrees at onset. Big flakes pouring down here now. 

Pretty much everywhere north of Everett at this point is gonna get snow if there’s precipitation. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Area to watch for over performance. In line with the EURO. 

Is this official?  My area is on this.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The C-zone setup looks pretty ideal to my amateur eye. 

And a c-zone is climo with that wind pattern... even in the summer.     Its going to park over Seattle later.

[smerfylicious]

Just had a graupel shower and it dropped almost 5 degrees in 10 minutes. Need it to drop another 5 and then we got a stew goin!

[MikeInEverett]

Snowing moderately at Paine Field

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Moist arctic front with a nice snowfall event as it comes in.

Thundersnow.

Flash freeze.

Not bad!

Been really light for the past few hours. Closing in on 3".

[flya00]

7 minutes ago, North_County said:

I've always wanted to take a trip up to Kelowna. Maybe now that the border is open again it will be in the cards soon.

Do you live there? Or just visiting? It would be great to get some regular observations from that area when cold air starts moving south. 

I go to university here, September through April. I visit often in the summer too around July and August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM looks warmer Wednesday evening. 

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And a c-zone is climo with that wind pattern... even in the summer.    

Yep! And the northwesterly onshore flow makes me think that it will go south of the usual King-Snohomish line. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, flya00 said:

I go to university here, September through April. I visit often in the summer too around July and August.

You mean college?  

[snow_wizard]

The NAM has some snow between OLM and SEA tomorrow night.  Some models do like the idea of snow tomorrow night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon looks a little south and really good for most of western Washington. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Yep! And the northwesterly onshore flow makes me think that it will go south of the usual King-Snohomish line. 

No doubt about it.   I think its going to be centered along I-90. 

[MossMan]

From 33.4 to 32.2 in 10min here. Snow picking back up. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean college?  

That's kind of a British way of saying it.  They say go to hospital instead of go to the hospital and stuff like that.  I've heard them do the same with university.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That's kind of a British way of saying it.  They say go to hospital instead of go to the hospital and stuff like that.  I've heard them do the same with university.

I know... that is why the wink was included.  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt about it.   I think its going to be centered along I-90. 

I'm hoping for 10 miles south of the ECMWF idea.  Certainly in the envelope of uncertainty.

[MossMan]

31.9! Moderate snow! Arctic front? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Nov1985]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very frustrating day. Snow starts dumping down turning everything white, then it stops and mostly melts. Then the same thing over and over. Now the sun is coming back out. Sad. 

Looks like you are in line for more snow from around 2 to 5 pm. If you are nice, I will send more. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

South sound special.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That’s exactly what we need for it to work out here…but we will see nice to atleast see we’re still in the game on several model runs here. 

[North_County]

Somewhere in the Fraser outflow zone.

https://twitter.com/RyanVoutilainen/status/1604580242110418944?t=ocw8wudm_yolQzMcE0jOEg&s=19

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon looks a little south and really good for most of western Washington. 

Major event on that model.  Any southward trend so close to the event becomes meaningful now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

11 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The C-zone setup looks pretty ideal to my amateur eye. 

Low level winds will be switching to offshore in the Juan de Fuca soon, it's already turned NE here in Victoria. Could be better at the upper levels, but any convergence will have to come from the Arctic front itself not the convergence of winds from the Juan de Fuca and Chehalis Gap.

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Looks like you are in line for more snow from around 2 to 5 pm. If you are nice, I will send more. 

Could you spare some cutter for me brother