PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Skagit Weather]

Some flurries and 38F here with a dew point of 33F. Cold/dry air must be close because I wouldn't normally see snow with this.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Overrunning event is starting to look more like snow than freezing rain. Very good sign. 

What are low temps like on Thursday?

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Totally agree, but the somewhat worrisome thing here is the delay in bringing the real cold into the Columbia River basin.

The weaker push of very cold air south on Monday/Tuesday, and the if the low Tuesday does indeed come in stronger and further north on Tuesday, is not what you want to see at this point.

Agree, for now the euro does seem to delay but does not deny impressive cold into the basin. I don't like that it strengthened that low on Tuesday since it messes up/delays the CAA. Hopefully that doesn't become a trend. 

[MossMan]

Big flakes! 

[ShawniganLake]

Skies are darkening and you can see the sw flow aloft here is slowing. The arctic front must be very close. Hoping we can get an inch or so today. 

[TT-SEA]

Friday snow and freezing rain...

 

[MikeInEverett]

Sun is shining! Looks dark to the north.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Overrunning event is starting to look more like snow than freezing rain. Very good sign. 

Spoke to soon…next frame 850s warm and we have a widespread ice storm. 

[MossMan]

Snow is now blowing from north to south instead of south to north! 

[Hawksfan2008]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are low temps like on Thursday?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not to throw more confusion into this but depending on how much cold air makes it into the sound through tomorrow really makes a difference on the Tues event. If more arctic air sinks south than what the euro is showing then even a track like the 12z would be ok for snow around tacoma Seattle and even if it did change to a mix it would be very short lived with the backwash dropping temps quickly.  If you blend everything together you would have a snow line a little south of tacoma west to a bit south of Shelton at this time.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty considerable warm nose on the 12z euro for PDX, pretty much ZR more than sleet even. Hopefully this improves. This warm front looks fairly weak and disorganized but still had just too much WAA aloft compared to the GFS/GEM/UKMET.

[Hawksfan2008]

I have never experienced a significant ice storm. How much does it take around here to cause big issues? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just got very dark! 

Open eye balls.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the freezing rain threat is gone when the next band of moisture arrives on Saturday morning but this going to be a real mess in the gorge.

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Out in Everett, waiting for the pressure to bottom out and rise to say that the front has passed.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I have never experienced a significant ice storm. How much does it take around here to cause big issues? 

I heard that a quarter inch and more starts doing damage. 

[Chowders]

Mentally preparing for my monthly lake jump this afternoon with a few neighbors. Current surface temp of water is 39.9°

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not to throw more confusion into this but depending on how much cold air makes it into the sound through tomorrow really makes a difference on the Tues event. If more arctic air sinks south than what the euro is showing then even a track like the 12z would be ok for snow around tacoma Seattle and even if it did change to a mix it would be very short lived with the backwash dropping temps quickly.  If you blend everything together you would have a snow line a little south of tacoma west to a bit south of Shelton at this time.

Very good point 

[mtep]

Ended up with maybe a half inch this morning. Just enough to cover most surfaces. Im glad this will be sticking around until later in the week. Looking like Tuesday will be our next shot at greatness up here. 

 

Headed out to Squire Lake soon for a little snow hike.

[Gummy]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not to throw more confusion into this but depending on how much cold air makes it into the sound through tomorrow really makes a difference on the Tues event. If more arctic air sinks south than what the euro is showing then even a track like the 12z would be ok for snow around tacoma Seattle and even if it did change to a mix it would be very short lived with the backwash dropping temps quickly.  If you blend everything together you would have a snow line a little south of tacoma west to a bit south of Shelton at this time.

Yep, it is just so tough to get a real push of arctic air. This happens more often then not as it stays bottled up in the northern portion of the Puget Sound, and doesn't make it sound of Everett.  Hitting around 40 as a high on Tuesday in the central sound is a huge pullback if that goes as modeled and doesn't bode well for the next system being more than just some light frozen precip before a transition.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not to throw more confusion into this but depending on how much cold air makes it into the sound through tomorrow really makes a difference on the Tues event. If more arctic air sinks south than what the euro is showing then even a track like the 12z would be ok for snow around tacoma Seattle and even if it did change to a mix it would be very short lived with the backwash dropping temps quickly.  If you blend everything together you would have a snow line a little south of tacoma west to a bit south of Shelton at this time.

I'm more concerned with how much cold air actually sinks south, been up since 2am worried about this lol. If we can get some outflow going down into the sound tonight we will be set up good for Tuesday. 

[MossMan]

Down to 33.2

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Down to 33.2

IMG_0422.MOV

Your wife doesn't have to be jealous of Buffalo now!  

[MWG]

3 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

@MWG staying warm enough down there? We considered moving to Medford but chose the Lewiston area since it was cheaper at the time.  My old employer, Blue Cross of Oregon has an office in Medford.  But we went with the office in Lewiston. Bit more snow in Lewiston and more where I am but Medford area is pretty. 

Not enough warm!! lol Medford is indeed pretty but yeah lack of snow and gets darn hot during summer and if there's fires near us we get all the smoke. 

[Terreboner]

The satellite loop sure looks better than the models portraying it.  I think moisture is way underdone for today.

[ShawniganLake]

Close to 6” in parts of Vancouver this morning so far 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Will be interested to see what the EPS does with the Tuesday low 

[MossMan]

Bam! White deck! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 in Ferndale, sumas, Lynden.  This outflow is the real deal so hopefully it can move south.

[Hawksfan2008]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

C-zone tonight... half a foot of snow here between about 4-10 p.m.    That is going to be crazy.

 

Wow! That is gonna be fun. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Wow! That is gonna be fun. 

3" in downtown Seattle too if that happens.  Gridlock tomorrow morning for sure.

[ShawniganLake]

Graupel on a north wind here now. My 5 year old said it was hail.  She’s in a time out now. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Arctic boundary has reached the northern extent of the San Juans.

[MossMan]

Trees starting to turn white now! 

[mtep]

Snow has started back up here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Wow! That is gonna be fun. 

What the heck is that dot on the east slopes of Olympics. It has been there for 4 days in the models. I know it's from convergence but it is strange. It is lined up with my place so it might move more east. Very rare to have convergence here like that though.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What the heck is that dot on the east slopes of Olympics. It has been there for 4 days in the models. I know it's from convergence but it is strange. It is lined up with my place so it might move more east. Very rare to have convergence here like that though.

Has to be the upslope.

[MikeInEverett]

View to the north, and to the east straight out my balcony.

[antipex]

Absolutely dumping now with occasional NNE breezes. Front is almost here. 11F with NE wind just 28 miles away.