PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z control run buries the Seattle area on Tuesday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think despite the odds of a full on arctic solution that always just looked wrong IMO have decreased…our odds at a decent event in western WA have increased. Would be nice to finally score a really significant arctic event…but we don’t necessarily need it for some fun things to happen as we’ve seen the last 7 years. 

This is a solid take. GFS solutions are and will be ridiculous, but there will likely be a solid event north of Olympia.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Just now, T-Town said:

I’m good with a little freezing rain to wrap things up, just don’t want a full on ice storm. Not sure where I would draw the line between the two but expect i will know it when I see it. 

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a solid take. GFS solutions are and will be ridiculous, but there will likely be a solid event north of Olympia.

I’m still not 100% on the central/south Puget sound scoring…the odds have gone up to like 65-70% IMO but more like 90% north of Everett. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

Yeah... that area was warm nosed.    While areas around Tacoma and from I-90 northward kept the low level cold longer.   It was a mess out here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I used to think the January 2004 ice storm was massive, or the December 2007 one we had in Oklahoma.  But I hope none of y’all see anything like February 2021. Ironically the places actually most likely to see a damaging storm like that are probably the Portland and south metro areas. Dang gorge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

IIRC it was the 17th-18th. Did freezing rain for like 12+ hours I think. My memory of that isn’t super sharp since I was 12 at the time. But I remember the constant on and off power outages and tree limbs breaking. We had 1” of ice accumulation. 

[Snownerd3000]

I recall while at WWU, the winter of 04/05 had a wintery outbreak that was very isolated to whatcom, maybe Skagit north and island counties but the rest of the area was very marginal. I wonder how the 500mb setup was with that compared to this event. 

[Doinko]

PDX got down to at least 27. Not bad

[Blizzard777]

I’m just happy to wake up and still have my 4Runner!!! 
Had a nightmare where my house was broke into and the only thing they grabbed were the keys and my 4Runner……lol, my baby .  

low of 28 and currently 30* with my frosty 4Runner

[ShawniganLake]

EPS looks surprisingly cold

 

 

 

[Terreboner]

28 minutes ago, Timmy said:

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Highest point in Portland on Skyline just briefly touches 1200'.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 at SLE 

[WeatherGeek2022]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

[Brennan]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

EPS looks surprisingly cold

 

 

 

Sunday-Tuesday could be really nice for Vancouver! Heck could even get blitzed Wednesday and Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

[thickhog]

13 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Highest point in Portland on Skyline just briefly touches 1200'.

You have to be up on the Chehalem Mountains near Bald Peak park to get > 1500’ in the WV. 

[Brennan]

Here comes the drunk uncle’s ex step cousin’s boyfriend’s mom’s dunkle (dad/uncle), the 6z.

[Brennan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

If this were a tradeable market this last move by the models would be the shakeout move in Wyckoff. Markup next?

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Agreed. I understand some disappointment at this point but it’s way too early to give up on this thing. The upside is still there for something special. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

The day 5 pullback.  I would expect the gfs will trend at least a little cooler in the next day or 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm icon looks

good early. Let’s see where it goes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s also worth noting most of the shrieking screams about a pull back are coming from Oregon members and rightly so. But if you live north of Olympia it’s ok to ignore us.

[rsktkr]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My main takeaway on this map is the insane blow torch coming up.

Either way, nature is awesome!

[Blizzard777]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Yep!  That’s why we’ll chase this thing into February.  I should be back in town by then

[Terreboner]

12 minutes ago, thickhog said:

You have to be up on the Chehalem Mountains near Bald Peak park to get > 1500’ in the WV. 

Yep, 1629'.  Even with it's elevation it doesn't snow there a whole lot more than lower elevations in PDX.  It has some locational problems going on.  Does pretty good in cold air damming scenarios though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Huge icon improvement 

[Terreboner]

You get a wet Christmas!!  I get a wet Christmas!!  We all get a wet Christmas!!!!

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Absolutely…late November into early December was going horribly then it turned around. Not quite as good as it was modeled beforehand but it ended up pretty good for a lot of people still. I’m feeling optimistic about next week more and more but we will see where we’re at in a couple days. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Huge icon improvement 

Need that low about 200 miles south and we all get hammered.

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap... 12Z ICON.

Other models followed ICON last night.  Could be a good morning in the model world. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon still isn’t great down here, but it’s a huge improvement. 

[rsktkr]

I hope the sting of another arctic rug pull diminishes quickly and you model guys start posting about whatever weather we do have coming because I am really starting to appreciate it all....not just cold and snow.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon still isn’t great down here, but it’s a huge improvement. 

I need to talk the Arctic front gods and get that thing at least to Olympia, and more than likely that low gets pushed to the sweet spot for us.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

45 minutes ago, Doinko said:

PDX got down to at least 27. Not bad

33 for a low here in the swamp

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Holy crap... 12Z ICON.

Other models followed ICON last night.  Could be a good morning in the model world. 

this would be an annoying scenario.  again...

[Blizzard777]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

If I don't wake up with at least a few roasts I will be pretty disappointed (I can take jokes!!)

Seriously, this is the guy moderating this place??!

Lol, looks like you’re a silly fun guy so you’re good in my book !  Great pics and I’m glad you’re moderating this place.  You do look like one of my friends from the 70s .  He’s in radio as you can tell 

[Eastwind]

12z ICON trended better for the middle of next week.

00z:

12z: