November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z EPS has a blowtorch +EPO pattern for much of the country by day 10, with the PNW staying just on the peripheral. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

Pedestrian 

[Front Ranger]

Pedestrian

You know that my pedestrian comment was playing off of Andrew's, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time for the drunk uncle run of the day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now if we have a January 1950 redux I will do my best to downplay it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of cold air up north, but no blocking to deliver the goods.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of cold air up north, but no blocking to deliver the goods.

 

Need a good mountain snow building pattern to get the ski season started!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really beautiful day out there! 

[luvssnow_spokane]

You know that my pedestrian comment was playing off of Andrew's, right?

Oh, Yes and ditto!... I was Just getting in, on all the fun. ... thought it was funny btw. 

[Geos]

Nice brisk autumn day. About 45 outside right now. 

Now tonight I would expect some more widespread 20s.

 

Sunset now at 4:42. 

[WeatherMan101]

For us up in Vancouver, Canada.

 

 

2:45 PM PST Monday 06 November 2017

Special weather statement in effect for:

 

City of Vancouver - including Burnaby and New Westminster

Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge

Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley

Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

North Shore - including West Vancouver and North Vancouver

A mix of rain and snow on the way...

 

A slow-moving cold front will approach the South Coast Tuesday night. As it nears, outflow winds will intensify through the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound. Bands of moisture will also accompany the front and with cold air in place, many areas could see snow or mixed rain and snow.

 

Current forecasts indicate that a weak band of precipitation will arrive over the South Coast early Wednesday morning followed by a more intense band later Wednesday afternoon or evening.

 

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing of the precipitation and the likelihood of snow. Higher elevation locales and areas exposed to outflow winds including East Vancouver Island are most likely to see snowfall accumulations.

 

Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and alerts as details will become clearer with the approach of the storm.

[Jesse]

Now if we have a January 1950 redux I will do my best to downplay it!

I don’t think that month overwhelmingly favored the foothills northeast of Salem compared to everywhere else, so it would come as no surprise.

[Phil]

Phil, I think 1989 is one of the leading analogs right now, and as you know that led to some serious cold in the East during second half of Nov/Dec. That loading pattern in the maps above looks like it's probably headed in that general direction.

Yeah, definitely some homogeneity there across the tropical/subtropical Pacific (was the case in several of those 1980s winters, actually)..

 

I'm starting to think we'll see more -NAM (-AO) this year, or at the very least a more timid PV, thanks to reduced solar forcing and a healthier BDC/O^3 pump.

[Jesse]

Chilly east winds have started out here in Cascade Park. The first of the season.

 

Currently 46 DP 35.

[Geos]

For us up in Vancouver, Canada.

 

 

2:45 PM PST Monday 06 November 2017

Special weather statement in effect for:

 

City of Vancouver - including Burnaby and New Westminster

Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge

Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley

Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

North Shore - including West Vancouver and North Vancouver

A mix of rain and snow on the way...

 

A slow-moving cold front will approach the South Coast Tuesday night. As it nears, outflow winds will intensify through the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound. Bands of moisture will also accompany the front and with cold air in place, many areas could see snow or mixed rain and snow.

 

Current forecasts indicate that a weak band of precipitation will arrive over the South Coast early Wednesday morning followed by a more intense band later Wednesday afternoon or evening.

 

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing of the precipitation and the likelihood of snow. Higher elevation locales and areas exposed to outflow winds including East Vancouver Island are most likely to see snowfall accumulations.

 

Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and alerts as details will become clearer with the approach of the storm.

 

Interesting that the forecast for US side of the border has 40 and rain for tomorrow night. They must be seeing something different than what SEW is seeing.

[crf450ish]

One of the vans at work which has been in the full sun for hours with very little melting to my surprise.

I hate that condensation that builds up on the inside of the windshield when snow sits on the exterior. 

 

Small price to pay for the snow though 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t think that month overwhelmingly favored the foothills northeast of Salem compared to everywhere else, so it would come as no surprise.

 

Like a 50" max snow depth at Silver Falls, but whatever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a signal for some warmer temps emerging as we head towards Thanksgiving, some football in shirtsleeves. 

[Geos]

Nice sunny afternoon at Hurricane Ridge.

 

[Phil]

For giggles, the clown range 12z EPS control run is depicting a super -NAM towards Thanksgiving. Drops the overall NH temperature anomaly by more than 1C.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/90C28F6F-6635-4C4C-8BDF-625FA86952C5_zpshvc40mj8.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3E0A9383-E4C0-457B-B638-BB3EFEBB1AE6_zpsmawmkzri.png

[MossMan]

I hate that condensation that builds up on the inside of the windshield when snow sits on the exterior.

 

Small price to pay for the snow though

Yeah it’s annoying. That old Chevy van has no insulation or headliners so the metal just condensates when it sits and just becomes a little greenhouse inside. Luckily the van that I use to travel the pass each week is a 3yr old loaded Sprinter with the heated windshield so I never have to worry about it!

[Jesse]

Like a 50" max snow depth at Silver Falls, but whatever.

Yeah but other places got a lot of snow too.

 

#winterfail

[Jesse]

Only 49 at PDX today despite a lot of afternoon sun.

 

Should be good for their first freeze tonight if the wind dies off.

[Jesse]

18Z ensembles trended a little cooler in the 7-10 day range. Definitely a decent mountain snow pattern coming up, probably the best we've seen pre-Thanksgiving in years.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Interesting that the forecast for US side of the border has 40 and rain for tomorrow night. They must be seeing something different than what SEW is seeing.

Perhaps Trump got one of his walls built near Blaine.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Perhaps Trump got one of his walls built near Blaine.

Canucks taking our jobs...

[Front Ranger]

Canucks taking our jobs...

 

Even worse when they steal our cold. And our women!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Even worse when they steal our cold. And our women!

But not our hockey...they haven't won a cup in the great white north since 1993. Sweet revenge.

[Front Ranger]

It’s not very flattering. Imagine that portrait of Cosmo Kramer.

 

I'm picturing something like this. Seems in line with umadbro's taste.

 

[Phil]

North American snowcover is pretty high right now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4A403051-1A0C-4F1D-BC02-F91ABD1FD7CE_zpssy3upewp.jpg

[Phil]

Not much coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere for the time being.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7B81B128-22AB-4EB0-82A6-D51D866DB029_zpsy2lkbdjq.jpg

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

I'm picturing something like this. Seems in line with umadbro's taste.

 

 

Ew.

[Deweydog]

I'm picturing something like this. Seems in line with umadbro's taste.

 

burt_reynolds.jpg

Smokey and the Bandit was released in 1977. Given this may be the first Burt pic in the forum's history and the fact that November also featured an exceptional cold snap, hard not to think analog.

[Phil]

Mentioned this a few times already, but here's that slow poleward propagating -AAM anomaly. Pretty much a classic precursor to a poleward amplification of the surf zone/high latitude blocking.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FCB48B79-5D94-49F5-861F-C7F0D65DA334_zps8jxn46j8.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

But not our hockey...they haven't won a cup in the great white north since 1993. Sweet revenge.

Haha. I’m not even really a hockey fan but most of the top Canadian players are part of American teams, obviously.

[Front Ranger]

Haha. I’m not even really a hockey fan but most of the top Canadian players are part of American teams, obviously.

 

The international National Hockey League.

[ShawniganLake]

Made it up to 41 here this afternoon. Already down to 30F this evening with at least a couple inches of snow left on the ground

[TT-SEA]

Temp is going up now... was down to 33 and now 35.    I am assuming the east wind is starting up without going outside to verify.  

[ShawniganLake]

Temp is going up now... was down to 33 and now 35. I am assuming the east wind is starting up without going outside to verify.

Still not a freeze there?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had a high of 54 today but looks to be a chilly night. Might get my 4th frost out of it.