Phil Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Incredible differences between the ECMWF OP and GFS et al, right off the bat. Here's the ECMWF minus GFS @ 60hrs. Note the ECMWF digging the back quadrant of the troughs..usually when this happens it's an error on the part of the ECMWF. Not always, but usually. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A0B4CB89-4AB1-4DF3-9CA4-8F13F4DA63BF_zpssqguksnt.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 By 72hrs, the differences are huge. The ECMWF is digging those shortwaves/BQs much farther southwest compared to the GFS. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B64A17E9-A2B2-45A0-9DCD-AF7191C84699_zpsnhenjgun.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Sometimes the ECMWF will score a coup in this type of situation, but I'm almost certain it's (at least partially) a result of bias, in this case. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Total rain over next 10 days per the 00Z ECMWF... this should begin to put a dent in the drought. Kind of typical November fare. Obviously we'll get a bit less than that and on the 23rd of the month I'll be sitting around 8-9" which will be average to date for the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Kind of typical November fare. Obviously we'll get a bit less than that and on the 23rd of the month I'll be sitting around 8-9" which will be average to date for the month.We need another 8” to get to normal for the month here. Currently at about 3”. So I agree, even if that verified, we would be near to slightly below for the month to date Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Total snow through just Sunday... this would allow the Summit at Snoqualmie to open. I believe their normal opening date is around December 7th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Up to 7 inches of rain on the month here after this evening and normal is between 11-12 inches. I think a wetter than normal November seems pretty likely here. SEA is also above normal for the month so far. I assume a wet November is a good sign for December. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 A lot of snow up at Mt Washington today. News was reporting 28” at the higher elevations today 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Up to 7 inches of rain on the month here after this evening and normal is between 11-12 inches. I think a wetter than normal November seems pretty likely here. SEA is also above normal for the month so far. I assume a wet November is a good sign for December. Do you know what your annual average is? Mine is about 75-80" Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Do you know what your annual average is? Mine is about 75-80"Not sure. North Bend is around 60 inches and that is 2.5 miles away and easily visible from here. But of course there can be a big difference in that short distance. I would guess its probably around 80 inches here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Not sure. North Bend is around 60 inches and that is 2.5 miles away and easily visible from here. But of course there can be a big difference in that short distance. I would guess its probably around 80 inches here. There is a guy who lives about 1200' in Clark County, Wa who averages at least 100" a year. He always gets so much more rain than I do. That area on the SW side of St. Helens gets an incredible amount of precip. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 00z EPS not too dissimilar than the Op run. 500mb progression similar also. Worlds better than the abysmal GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Power just came back on. 43 fog 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Cloudy and 40 degrees. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Live view from the Summit at Snoqualmie this morrning as the sun is coming up... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 The morning after... we did lose power for 2 hours during the night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 The morning after... we did lose power for 2 hours during the night. A lot of leaves on those trees still Tim Raining here. Looking at the mesoscale models this morning it could be a really wet day on southern Vancouver Island. That narrow but heavy band looks pretty stationary 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Pretty view from the top of Snoqualmie. Tim your roads are way too clean! None of the roads here looks like that. Colder and blustery here this morning. Internet and cable came back on about midnight here. Never lost power for more than a few seconds. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Pretty view from the top of Snoqualmie. Tim your roads are way too clean! None of the roads here looks like that. Colder and blustery here this morning. Internet and cable came back on about midnight here. Never lost power for more than a few seconds.I think the wind blew them clean. There are definitely less leaves in my yard this morning as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 A lot of leaves on those trees still Tim Raining here. Looking at the mesoscale models this morning it could be a really wet day on southern Vancouver Island. That narrow but heavy band looks pretty stationary The 12Z models keep it mostly dry out here through this evening as the rain stays mostly to the west of Puget Sound. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Also... the 12Z GFS is still dry for Saturday which is in complete disagreement with the 00Z ECMWF which showed very heavy rain that day over WA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 The 12Z models keep it mostly dry out here through this evening as the rain stays mostly to the west of Puget Sound.Quite wet up here so far. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Quite wet up here so far. Yes... models keep the rain mostly west of Puget Sound down here. That is not true a little farther north. Here is 4 p.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Also... the 12Z GFS is still dry for Saturday which is in complete disagreement with the 00Z ECMWF which showed very heavy rain that day over WA. Will be fun to see which model ends up caving. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Will be fun to see which model ends up caving. I always like to track a model battle! There is a massive difference between the GFS and ECMWF considering Saturday is just 96 hours away. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 I always like to track a model battle! Canadian basically echoes the GFS, shows the jet hitting B.C. on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Quite wet up here so far. Getting brushed by showers here. I imagine later it will be more of a steady rain. Looks like a line of t-storms. Still some stop lights out this morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Getting brushed by showers here. I imagine later it will be more of a steady rain. Looks like a line of t-storms. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LGX/N0Q/LGX.N0Q.20171114.1750.gif Still some stop lights out this morning. According to the 12Z models... the rain might not really move east until later this evening. Partly sunny and calm here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Yep strong thunderstorms coming ashore - just what the region needs after last night and yesterday... Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Seattle WA955 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2017WAZ517-141830-Central Coast-955 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2017...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAYS HARBOR COUNTYUNTIL 1030 AM PST...At 954 AM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm nearOcean Shores, or 8 miles northwest of Westport, moving northeast at45 mph.Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible withthis storm.LAT...LON 4722 12405 4704 12417 4726 12422TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 228DEG 41KT 4696 12425 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Mt. Bachelor just announced they’re opening early Saturday! Let the party begin. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Winds gusting to 48 mph at Destruction Island next to those thunderstorms right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Winds gusting to 48 mph at Destruction Island next to those thunderstorms right now. AKA a "slight breeze" on Mt. Washington. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend. Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area. Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend. Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area. Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all. Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Partly sunny and pleasant here... nice change from last night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened. I think 2008 was torchy until the second of week of December and then it just crashed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend. Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area. Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.It's still dragging the ULL and lead shortwave, but yeah it definitely swung towards the GFS. This is one of those convoluted patterns that can really exploit the ECMWF's ULL bias. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend. Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area. Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.king gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened.I was washing my truck in shorts on Thanksgiving 2008 and was very concerned as well...until the greatness started just a couple of weeks later! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2017 Report Share Posted November 14, 2017 Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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