Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 I'm not seeing a 2007 like outcome. This year is much more blocky. I agree. Doesn't mean it should be completely disregarded as an analog, though. I think we have to look at analogs as a blend of likely possibilities, varying outcomes that still produce a coherent signal. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 The mountain snowpack, at least in Oregon, has been completely destroyed. I'm pretty sure there are no survivors.I did a webcam tour and was actually surprised how much remains above 4,000’ or so. The fact that we didn’t get a ton of rain when temperatures were the warmest helped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 I did a webcam tour and was actually surprised how much remains above 4,000’ or so. The fact that we didn’t get a ton of rain when temperatures were the warmest helped.Looking at the tripcheck cams, it is pretty bleak at the pass levels. Santiam had 30" just last week. It's pretty spotty now. Unfortunate, but common in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 12z re-capCMC, ECMWF, GEM (Images posted in that order) Centered at day 8(FCST HR 192) Viewing all 3 Operational runs the GFS was certainly the most progressive with the ridge tending to be shoved eastward broadening out/flattening and thus not setting up in a favorably. GFS also lacks any amplification and features above normal heights/ridge over the southern rockies. Perhaps resulting in more of a "fake cold" pattern. CMC and ECMWF are in quite good agreement days 5-8 with cold trough digging southward over WA/OR and above normal heights/ridge over southern plains. Much better teleconnection pattern also. Both models suggest possible arctic air, but the amplification needed is lacking, for now. Anytime in late November through the heart of Winter we see the ridge axis around 150-160 W at the very least it is encouraging. We need that if we have any shot at cold, arctic air. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017112412/192/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112412/192/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112412/192/500h_anom.na.png 12z Ensembles - 500mb12z GEFS flow is simply too progressive. Chilly NW flow at times. Ridging is transitory and very flat after day 7. Extended period is not in agreement with CMC/ECMWF. 12z CMCE. Too progressive. Block is initially 150-140 W, builds closer to the Coast after day 8-10. Above normal heights over us. Fake cold pattern potentially. Not an arctic pattern. 12z EPS less progressive. Block sets up 160-150 W, then edges towards 145-140 W and remains there through day 8-10. Definitely seeing a bit better amplification, but ridge axis just a bit too close. Chilly NW to perhaps N flow at times. Potential is there for improvement. Possible backdoor intrusion of cold air into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Looking at the tripcheck cams, it is pretty bleak at the pass levels. Santiam had 30" just last week. It's pretty spotty now. Unfortunate, but common in November. The Mt. Hood sno-tel site (5,400') still is reporting over a foot on the ground. Granted they had well over 30" just a few days ago. But it isn't completely gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Looking at the tripcheck cams, it is pretty bleak at the pass levels. Santiam had 30" just last week. It's pretty spotty now. Unfortunate, but common in November. Yeah, mid Dec-Mar is really the key period for building snow pack. Not that good snowpack can't be built earlier, it's just much more likely to survive into the spring later. DJ droppin-inspired new name? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Good call. It's obvious there will be a cold snap of some sort during week 2. It should be noted December 1970 was pretty cold and snowy for many though.I also think there should be a (brief) troughy episode in early December as a Rossby wave packet rides through, but I think overall the month will run well above average. I'm very excited for you guys January, though. I might even find an excuse to visit my extended family in Everett, if it starts to look like a slam dunk. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 This would fit with most leading analogs featuring a generally warm West in December. Of course, this doesn't mean wall to wall warmth in December, as discussed in the Winter Predictions thread the past couple weeks. Some of these years had cool spells with some snow. post-949-0-15240400-1510796688.pngFascinating. I know it's subjective, but to me this really feels like an old timer's Niña. At least in terms of the pattern progression. Haven't seen an east-based Walker Cell/IPWP under a +SIOD/-QBO since the 1950s. Throw in weakening solar, and you have a recipe for some interesting stuff centered in the mid-winter period. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 I wondering if you realize almost none of your analogs line up with what the NE Pacific looked like in Oct-Nov. I think that stubborn positive height / pressure anom out there is key to this winter. Past history is adamant the persistent positive anoms out there are a big deal.Remember, though, that there was a well-timed MJO wave in tandem with that residual warm pool/off-equator forcing that really enhanced that GOA ridge last month. I'm not confident it was a background state at the time, though I'm assuming it will indeed become a background state sometime this winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Fascinating. I know it's subjective, but to me this really feels like an old timer's Niña. At least in terms of the pattern progression. Haven't seen an east-based Walker Cell/IPWP under a +SIOD/-QBO since the 1950s. Throw in weakening solar, and you have a recipe for some interesting stuff centered in the mid-winter period.The Thanksgiving blowtorch out here is actually pretty textbook for an "old school" type of Niña. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 As far as climate is concerned, I'm very happy to see the -NAM return. Tropical convection is finally strengthening and consolidating equatorward as a result (this following the prolonged anemic state that had dominated since 2013). http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6D00B48D-F3D8-4297-8C25-35D655B0AD1C_zps9cgd7hym.jpg The resulting increase in cloud cover and wind speeds (between 30N - 30S) is just beginning to draw down OHC within those latitudes, through a combination of evaporative cooling (extraction and transfer latent heat, which is released via condensation in convection) and reduced insolation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Another super torchy day. What a disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Another super torchy day. What a disappointment.But beautiful here. Put up the Christmas lights outside. Nicest Black Friday for me since 2008 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 But beautiful here. Put up the Christmas lights outside. Nicest Black Friday for me since 2008 What if this is a trend for the rest of the winter though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 What if this is a trend for the rest of the winter thoughWelcome to climate change. Like it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Welcome to climate change. Like it? If it gives us more January supercells I'm all for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 When does fake cold become real?When mankind stops polluting into the air and oceans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 What if this is a trend for the rest of the winter thoughWhat if it isn’t through ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 What if it isn’t through ?Then it must dead end somewhere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 The ensemble spread is large, but there are some truly insane members in there, along with many that resemble December 2008 or November 2010. A smaller cluster has the ridge closer to the coast, but that looks like a product of a delayed retrogression and stronger PV, rather than a denied one.How insane are we talking? And if the ridge is closer wouldn't it cause temp to be warmer vs of it was more offshore? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 How insane are we talking? And if the ridge is closer wouldn't it cause temp to be warmer vs of it was more offshore?Depends on which side of it You're on. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 How insane are we talking? And if the ridge is closer wouldn't it cause temp to be warmer vs of it was more offshore?All signs point to an insanity level in the 6.6 to 6.9 range on the Gifford-Pinchot-Bachman-Turner-Overdrive Insanity Scale (GPBTOIS). Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Another super torchy day. What a disappointment. Beautiful day. Not sure how anyone could be disappointed. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 I did a webcam tour and was actually surprised how much remains above 4,000’ or so. The fact that we didn’t get a ton of rain when temperatures were the warmest helped. WHAT?! I had about 3.5" of rain the 20-23rd with temps mostly in the 50s at 1600'....Pass elevations probably got at least that much rain if not more. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Beautiful day. Not sure how anyone could be disappointed.I sobbed uncontrollably while hanging lights in the face of slightly mild sunshine. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 I sobbed uncontrollably while hanging lights in the face of slightly mild sunshine. Here at Oregon's Station of the God's it is going to end up with something around a 55/35 day. Not exactly a "torch" in the south valley. Just a few degrees above average. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Beautiful day. Not sure how anyone could be disappointed.WOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Yeah, mid Dec-Mar is really the key period for building snow pack. Not that good snowpack can't be built earlier, it's just much more likely to survive into the spring later. DJ droppin-inspired new name?I'm not quite sure what you mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 I sobbed uncontrollably while hanging lights in the face of slightly mild sunshine.Raining up here most of the day! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 I'm not quite sure what you mean You've mentioned your flatulence a lot recently...and dolt's new name is "shart". 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 You've mentioned your flatulence a lot recently...and dolt's new name is "shart".LOL I mentioned it once in a very poor attempt at humor while drawing comparisons to.... well, you know. I could change my username to Rob, or Gradient Keeper. DJ Droppin in my artist/producer name. Maybe I'll come up with something like SnowBallz. I dunno. 00z GFS in 2 hours 42 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Reality check...the winter of 1861-62 didn't have any cold whatsoever until mid December. Same is true for many great winters. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 [Model Countdown]Next up.................*00z GFS in 2 hours 29 minutes00z CMC(Canadian) in 3 hours 14 minutes00z ECMWF in 4 hours 50 minutesIt would be nice to see both an amplified and less progressive pattern on the runs tonight. I'm not overly confident for either. Cautiously optimistic. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Reality check...the winter of 1861-62 didn't have any cold whatsoever until mid December. Same is true for many great winters. This winter already blew it early this month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 This winter already blew it early this month.Like I say...we can always count on March! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Ensembles seem to be gradually trending milder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Ensembles seem to be gradually trending milder.If you mean GEFS? Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Reality check...the winter of 1861-62 didn't have any cold whatsoever until mid December. Same is true for many great winters.Many of our warm, snowless winters also had no cold, snow through mid December. Hmmmm... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Another super torchy day. What a disappointment. Was quite a bit cooler here, 49 for a high compared to 64 on Thanksgiving. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 You've mentioned your flatulence a lot recently...and dolt's new name is "shart".I thought you were talking about dropping a poo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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