November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes!

[Phil]

Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history...

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history

 

 

I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW. Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet.

 

The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy. I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879. Can anyone link me to that site again? And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo.

 

However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect. The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914). The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy.

Location matters when it comes to volcanic eruptions. By far, the Indo-Pacific eruptions are the most effective at changing climate patterns since that area is literally the convective engine of the entire planet. Smack dab in the middle of the warm pool.

 

The 1912 eruption was in Alaska. The 1902 eruption was in Guatemala. Neither location features deep convection to the extent that the Indo-Pacific region does, and neither location transports excessive amounts of heat poleward like the IPWP domain.

[Jesse]

Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history...

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history

 

 

I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW. Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet.

 

The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy. I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879. Can anyone link me to that site again? And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo.

 

However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect. The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914). The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy.

Some of those early 20th century summers you rave about were actually quite cool. They were just consistently sunny. So hard to say what if any influence volcanics had.

[Phil]

Think of it this way. The tropopause is higher in the Indo-Pacific region than anywhere else on Earth, as convection is much deeper (taller) there. When an eruption occurs under that area of deep convection, the SO^2 is more easily and vigorously pumped high into the atmosphere and around the globe.

[Phil]

If anything, polar eruptions have the opposite effect on climate, because the polar regions are in an energy deficit, and SO^2 pumped into the polar stratosphere traps more OLR than it does block sunlight, and it destroys O^3, both of which alter the global energy budget in a way that favors a +NAM/+SAM in the long run, which actually increases the planetary thermal budget.

 

Sulfur deposited on ice will also reduce its albedo.

[Timmy]

for the first tine this fall, the evening has that cool, crisp fall feel to it.  should be a decent freeze tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart.

[TT-SEA]

for the first tine this fall, the evening has that cool, crisp fall feel to it.  should be a decent freeze tonight.

 

Not even a chance here... the next front is racing onshore now.    Solid cloud deck has reached all the way to Seattle now.    And it will be raining before dawn... even down there it appears.  

 

[MossMan]

Next winter won't be a Niño (IMO), but I think 2019/20 could be.

Yeah I heard next winter will have a good chance of being neutral...which it seems like when we usually get the wild windstorms and good periods of snowy fun. Let’s hope so.

[Jesse]

Not even a chance here... the next front is racing onshore now. Solid cloud deck has reached all the way to Seattle now. And it will be raining before dawn... even down there it appears.

 

Is there an app on your phone that alerts you when someone types “freeze” on here?

[TT-SEA]

Is there an app on your phone that alerts you when someone types “freeze” on here?

 

No.  

 

I have been on here off and on all afternoon.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I heard next winter will have a good chance of being neutral...which it seems like when we usually get the wild windstorms and good periods of snowy fun. Let’s hope so.

 

I can't believe you're already looking past the snowiest winter in decades to next winter.

[Jesse]

[WeatherArchive]

Basically what I called for in my winter forecast. I think we will see a colder upper level airmass than last winter. In fact I think there is a good chance we see a regional arctic outbreak. We have not seen one in about 4 years now. 

 

Most of the Willamette Valley SLE-PDX saw about 10-15" of snow last winter, Eugene to Albany had less, maybe 4-8". So the south valley could definitely top last winter with one good storm. 

We were in the lower end of that category last winter.  The 4-5 inch range.

[TT-SEA]

Too bad. I guess technology hasn’t caught up yet. I was going to get one that auto-replied a middle finger whenever someone said “rose”.

 

That would be cool!   But what about the Rose Festival?    What about a wind rose?   What about reporting what water levels rose to in a flood situation?   What about discussing when a cold event rose to historical levels?    What about when Jim reports that his NPS index rose to one of the highest levels ever (a good thing for cold)?

 

Are you really thinking about the ramifications of such a decision???   

[wx_statman]

Location matters when it comes to volcanic eruptions. By far, the Indo-Pacific eruptions are the most effective at changing climate patterns since that area is literally the convective engine of the entire planet. Smack dab in the middle of the warm pool.

 

The 1912 eruption was in Alaska. The 1902 eruption was in Guatemala. Neither location features deep convection to the extent that the Indo-Pacific region does, and neither location transports excessive amounts of heat poleward like the IPWP domain.

 

Some major climatic impacts have occurred from New World eruptions though. The climatic events of c. 535-541 are attributed to Ilopango in El Salvador, and the severe volcanic cooling & associated Russian famine of 1601-03 are currently attributed to the 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru. Definitely tropical, however. 

[Jesse]

That would be cool! But what about the Rose Festival? What about a wind rose? What about reporting what water levels rose to in a flood situation? What about discussing when a cold event rose to historical levels? What about when Jim reports that his NPS index rose to one of the highest levels ever (a good thing for cold)?

 

Are you really thinking about the ramifications of such a decision???

I’m willing to take my chances.

[MossMan]

[Deweydog]

Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart.

Yet ANOTHER sign this winter is going to be a blockbuster.

[Deweydog]

I can't believe you're already looking past the snowiest winter in decades to next winter.

This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits.

 

F-

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits.

 

F-

And it blew and drifted around everywhere too. Made it hard to see or do much of anything.

[MossMan]

This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits.

 

F-

Exactly!

[MossMan]

Currently 38 degrees...brrrrr.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble control model goes super cold for us in early January on the latest weeklies.  The mean shows -PNA returning during the same period.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ECMWF ensemble control model goes super cold for us in early January on the latest weeklies. The mean shows -PNA returning during the same period.

Regional snow event confirmed. Pencil it in.

[Deweydog]

Regional snow event confirmed. Pencil it in.

Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath.

[umadbro]

Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath.

Freezing rain over East Vancouver though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath.

Give me a break. It'll at least make it to Woodburn XD

[Jesse]

Freezing rain over East Vancouver though.

No bueno. That’s where my #1 crush Jesse lives.

[Front Ranger]

I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right? Plus I feel like the 93-94 niño had some cold periods. Snowflakes were falling on xmas unless I have the year wrong.

 

You might be thinking of Thanksgiving? There was a moderate Arctic outbreak with a little lowland snow right before Thanksgiving in 1993.

[Phil]

FWIW, 1993/94 wasn't a Niño

[umadbro]

No bueno. That’s where my #1 crush Jesse lives.

It all makes sense now.

[Front Ranger]

This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits.

 

F-

 

#coldworldproblems

[Front Ranger]

It all makes sense now.

 

You guys are engaged, right?

[Geos]

Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart.

 

Very cool.

Any indication of what they were mining there?

[TT-SEA]

Rain is already showing up on the radar around King County.    Must the warm front with the incoming system.    Rain was not supposed to start until early tomorrow morning.   The little break this afternoon was nice while it lasted.  

[Front Ranger]

Rain is already showing up on the radar around King County.    Must the warm front with the incoming system.    Rain was not supposed to start until early tomorrow morning.   The little break this afternoon was nice while it lasted.  

 

Relax...big ol' ridge coming up.

[Phil]

The -NAM has already dropped the (lower tropospheric) global temperature anomaly by 0.5C since November 1st. The EPS weeklies drop it another 0.35C next month.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/29082683-4C80-4451-80A3-E5BFBAA098FF_zps1gwrdl8b.jpg

[Deweydog]

You guys are engaged, right?

I wonder if Jesse's wearing white...

[Jesse]

I wonder if Jesse's wearing white...

Only because I’m a huge Billy Idol fan.