Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history... https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW. Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet. The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy. I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879. Can anyone link me to that site again? And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo. However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect. The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914). The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy.Location matters when it comes to volcanic eruptions. By far, the Indo-Pacific eruptions are the most effective at changing climate patterns since that area is literally the convective engine of the entire planet. Smack dab in the middle of the warm pool. The 1912 eruption was in Alaska. The 1902 eruption was in Guatemala. Neither location features deep convection to the extent that the Indo-Pacific region does, and neither location transports excessive amounts of heat poleward like the IPWP domain. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history... https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW. Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet. The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy. I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879. Can anyone link me to that site again? And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo. However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect. The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914). The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy.Some of those early 20th century summers you rave about were actually quite cool. They were just consistently sunny. So hard to say what if any influence volcanics had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Think of it this way. The tropopause is higher in the Indo-Pacific region than anywhere else on Earth, as convection is much deeper (taller) there. When an eruption occurs under that area of deep convection, the SO^2 is more easily and vigorously pumped high into the atmosphere and around the globe. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 If anything, polar eruptions have the opposite effect on climate, because the polar regions are in an energy deficit, and SO^2 pumped into the polar stratosphere traps more OLR than it does block sunlight, and it destroys O^3, both of which alter the global energy budget in a way that favors a +NAM/+SAM in the long run, which actually increases the planetary thermal budget. Sulfur deposited on ice will also reduce its albedo. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 for the first tine this fall, the evening has that cool, crisp fall feel to it. should be a decent freeze tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart. 7 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 for the first tine this fall, the evening has that cool, crisp fall feel to it. should be a decent freeze tonight. Not even a chance here... the next front is racing onshore now. Solid cloud deck has reached all the way to Seattle now. And it will be raining before dawn... even down there it appears. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Next winter won't be a Niño (IMO), but I think 2019/20 could be.Yeah I heard next winter will have a good chance of being neutral...which it seems like when we usually get the wild windstorms and good periods of snowy fun. Let’s hope so. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Not even a chance here... the next front is racing onshore now. Solid cloud deck has reached all the way to Seattle now. And it will be raining before dawn... even down there it appears. Is there an app on your phone that alerts you when someone types “freeze” on here? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Is there an app on your phone that alerts you when someone types “freeze” on here? No. I have been on here off and on all afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Yeah I heard next winter will have a good chance of being neutral...which it seems like when we usually get the wild windstorms and good periods of snowy fun. Let’s hope so. I can't believe you're already looking past the snowiest winter in decades to next winter. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Basically what I called for in my winter forecast. I think we will see a colder upper level airmass than last winter. In fact I think there is a good chance we see a regional arctic outbreak. We have not seen one in about 4 years now. Most of the Willamette Valley SLE-PDX saw about 10-15" of snow last winter, Eugene to Albany had less, maybe 4-8". So the south valley could definitely top last winter with one good storm. We were in the lower end of that category last winter. The 4-5 inch range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Too bad. I guess technology hasn’t caught up yet. I was going to get one that auto-replied a middle finger whenever someone said “rose”. That would be cool! But what about the Rose Festival? What about a wind rose? What about reporting what water levels rose to in a flood situation? What about discussing when a cold event rose to historical levels? What about when Jim reports that his NPS index rose to one of the highest levels ever (a good thing for cold)? Are you really thinking about the ramifications of such a decision??? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Location matters when it comes to volcanic eruptions. By far, the Indo-Pacific eruptions are the most effective at changing climate patterns since that area is literally the convective engine of the entire planet. Smack dab in the middle of the warm pool. The 1912 eruption was in Alaska. The 1902 eruption was in Guatemala. Neither location features deep convection to the extent that the Indo-Pacific region does, and neither location transports excessive amounts of heat poleward like the IPWP domain. Some major climatic impacts have occurred from New World eruptions though. The climatic events of c. 535-541 are attributed to Ilopango in El Salvador, and the severe volcanic cooling & associated Russian famine of 1601-03 are currently attributed to the 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru. Definitely tropical, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 That would be cool! But what about the Rose Festival? What about a wind rose? What about reporting what water levels rose to in a flood situation? What about discussing when a cold event rose to historical levels? What about when Jim reports that his NPS index rose to one of the highest levels ever (a good thing for cold)? Are you really thinking about the ramifications of such a decision??? I’m willing to take my chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart.Yet ANOTHER sign this winter is going to be a blockbuster. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 I can't believe you're already looking past the snowiest winter in decades to next winter.This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits. F- 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits. F-And it blew and drifted around everywhere too. Made it hard to see or do much of anything. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits. F-Exactly! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Currently 38 degrees...brrrrr. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble control model goes super cold for us in early January on the latest weeklies. The mean shows -PNA returning during the same period. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble control model goes super cold for us in early January on the latest weeklies. The mean shows -PNA returning during the same period.Regional snow event confirmed. Pencil it in. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Regional snow event confirmed. Pencil it in.Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath.Freezing rain over East Vancouver though. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Wilsonville to Bellingham would be a pretty wide swath.Give me a break. It'll at least make it to Woodburn XD Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Freezing rain over East Vancouver though.No bueno. That’s where my #1 crush Jesse lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right? Plus I feel like the 93-94 niño had some cold periods. Snowflakes were falling on xmas unless I have the year wrong. You might be thinking of Thanksgiving? There was a moderate Arctic outbreak with a little lowland snow right before Thanksgiving in 1993. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 FWIW, 1993/94 wasn't a Niño Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 No bueno. That’s where my #1 crush Jesse lives. It all makes sense now. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This winter's snow, while deep, was far too powdery for snowball making due persistent temperatures in the teens and single digits. F- #coldworldproblems Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 It all makes sense now. You guys are engaged, right? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Did some exploring near my property and found a old mine. You can see little tracks for a mine cart. Very cool.Any indication of what they were mining there? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Rain is already showing up on the radar around King County. Must the warm front with the incoming system. Rain was not supposed to start until early tomorrow morning. The little break this afternoon was nice while it lasted. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Rain is already showing up on the radar around King County. Must the warm front with the incoming system. Rain was not supposed to start until early tomorrow morning. The little break this afternoon was nice while it lasted. Relax...big ol' ridge coming up. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The -NAM has already dropped the (lower tropospheric) global temperature anomaly by 0.5C since November 1st. The EPS weeklies drop it another 0.35C next month. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/29082683-4C80-4451-80A3-E5BFBAA098FF_zps1gwrdl8b.jpg 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 You guys are engaged, right?I wonder if Jesse's wearing white... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 I wonder if Jesse's wearing white...Only because I’m a huge Billy Idol fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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