Cascadia_Wx Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: Judah is spoiled lol. He believes his area is in a prolonged snow drought even after that behemoth nor’easter last January (the one I rode out in Plymouth w/ 80mph gusts & windows shattering around me, lmao). For reference this is the footage I took of the conditions there. I haven’t seen anything even remotely like that since Feb 2010, and even that apparently didn’t satisfy him. (captured one of the shattering windows at 33:22 in, fwiw). this was wild. Sounds like an eastern MossMan. 5 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Heavy Snow, 28 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Heavy Snow, 28 No photos or videos? Banned! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Those analogs are for 11 days out from now... so it assumes the models have everything right. I wish they did analogs for the current pattern which has actually verified. But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table. That was an amazing early March. And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. I would love a 1951 redux, but the people who don't like dry weather would not approve. 1 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 55 minutes ago, MossMan said: Be careful…removing snow from your windshield can be dangerous! Wow! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: Also the skiing has been fantastic. Usually the Gun Barrel face at heavenly ices up first since it is at the bottom of the mt. But this season it has been nice and chalky with very little ice. Not sure why its posting up side down but use your imagination. lol Trippy! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Snow Snifters! I love that word. Ray Ramsey!!! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Another decently chilly day. 42/29 here with a little bit of snow this morning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: definitely more likely not to get anything the rest of winter if something doesn't dramatically change soon in these runs. rapid acceleration of declining odds by mid feb in general. Apparently you haven't been round in Feb in recent years. Feb will most likely end up below normal. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I would love a 1951 redux, but the people who don't like dry weather would not approve. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 42/27 at PDX today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Best looking AK ridge yet at this time vs last couple days of ensemble runs. Less SW cold 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: It will probably take longer than that as that looks like a MJO phase 5 or 6 pattern. That is decent for CA but not so much up here. The 850mb temps at the end of the EPS run show the focus of the colder air is in the desert SW. That type of pattern usually ends up being pretty quiet up here. 5 is a wild card here. Some of our best blasts have been with MJO 5. Region 7 is the absolute best bet though. A good wave in 7 almost always delivers decent cold. Three is also decent for cold here as this current cold snap shows. If the NAO had been a little bit minus we would have gotten nailed with this current block. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Overcast and 34.0˚F here. Slowly melting. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 18z GEFS has a much stronger signal for cold in BC than previous runs. Hmmmm. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Overcast and 34.0˚F here. Slowly melting. Cold really hung on up there. All in all this was a decent cold snap. My bucket of water outside still has a good 2 inch thick slab of ice on it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 41/29 here today. Month will finish +1.0F. 2 sub 40 highs and 2 trace snowfalls with the cold snap made it a bit better I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 5 is a wild card here. Some of our best blasts have been with MJO 5. Region 7 is the absolute best bet though. A good wave in 7 almost always delivers decent cold. Three is also decent for cold here as this current cold snap shows. If the NAO had been a little bit minus we would have gotten nailed with this current block. MJO 5 with a Nina in February? Apparently every month is different in terms of MJO patterns. MJO 5 in February with a Nina looks like what the EPS is showing: 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Cold really hung on up there. All in all this was a decent cold snap. My bucket of water outside still has a good 2 inch thick slab of ice on it. More snow would have been nice, but at least there was some, and there’s a decent chance of a bit more tonight. Plus I did really well last month, so no complaints about this winter from me. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Maps today for tonight look a lot like maps yesterday for yesterday night. 3 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Maps today for tonight look a lot like maps yesterday for yesterday night. Except last night the ECMWF showed some precip down here while tonight it shows nothing south of about Arlington. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: 41/29 here today. Month will finish +1.0F. 2 sub 40 highs and 2 trace snowfalls with the cold snap made it a bit better I guess. At least this month wasn't warm enough to ruin our chances for a decent Nov - Feb average. The final third was actually pretty nippy. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: MJO 5 with a Nina in February? Apparently every month is different in terms of MJO patterns. MJO 5 in February with a Nina looks like what the EPS is showing: I was just talking about 5 in general during the winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: At least this month wasn't warm enough to ruin our chances for a decent Nov - Feb average. The final third was actually pretty nippy. Yeah I was thinking about that earlier. If this month had finished +3 or so it would’ve been pretty hard to pull off a colder than normal Dec-Feb. December finished -1.7F and this month just +1F. So just a slightly colder than normal February would get us a colder than normal winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 The numbers for Jan 20 to Jan 31 IMBY were actually decent. Average Max = 42.7 Average Min = 31.0 Average = 36.8 That's almost frigid by recent late January standards. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Calm. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Hopefully the positive changes on the 18z GEFS will be the beginning of something. That stronger BC cold signal is a pretty big deal. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, T-Town said: Calm. Pretty much as dead as it gets. Dead calm here as well. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 A good number of ensemble members in the sub -7 bracket on this run as well. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Ended up with a 41/23 day here. Still solidly chilly with just some high overcast today. Mountains are out this afternoon, kind of some cool lighting out there. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Radar starting to look interesting. 2 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, RentonHill said: 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Down to 34.3 DP 31. I still have snow on the ground! 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted February 1, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Given the currently raging -PAC (Phil and CFS), I'd say we're looking pretty spot on for a major late season blast come mid-late February. In all seriousness with -ENSO/+QBO and some MJO schenanigans, it won't take too much to bring in a decent Arctic airmass, Hudson Bay be damned. 10 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Down to 33.6˚F and I still have snow on the ground. DP 30.7˚F. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 43/23 at SLE today 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Control (worthless on its own and is no better than an single ensemble member) shows a nice blast 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A good number of ensemble members in the sub -7 bracket on this run as well. How does the spaghetti chart look 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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