PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Judah is spoiled lol. He believes his area is in a prolonged snow drought even after that behemoth nor’easter last January (the one I rode out in Plymouth w/ 80mph gusts & windows shattering around me, lmao).

For reference this is the footage I took of the conditions there. I haven’t seen anything even remotely like that since Feb 2010, and even that apparently didn’t satisfy him.  

(captured one of the shattering windows at 33:22 in, fwiw). this was wild.

 

Sounds like an eastern MossMan.

[Phishy Wx]

Heavy Snow,  28

[Phishy Wx]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Heavy Snow,  28

No photos or videos? Banned!

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Those analogs are for 11 days out from now... so it assumes the models have everything right.   I wish they did analogs for the current pattern which has actually verified.

But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table.   That was an amazing early March.    And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. 

I would love a 1951 redux, but the people who don't like dry weather would not approve.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Be careful…removing snow from your windshield can be dangerous! 

 

Wow!

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Also the skiing has been fantastic. Usually the Gun Barrel face at heavenly ices up first since it is at the bottom of the mt. But this season it has been nice and chalky with very little ice. 

Not sure why its posting up side down but use your imagination. lol 

Trippy! 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Snow Snifters! 

I love that word.  Ray Ramsey!!!

[snow_wizard]

Another decently chilly day.  42/29 here with a little bit of snow this morning.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

definitely more likely not to get anything the rest of winter if something doesn't dramatically change soon in these runs.

 

rapid acceleration of declining odds by mid feb in general.

Apparently you haven't been round in Feb in recent years.  Feb will most likely end up below normal.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would love a 1951 redux, but the people who don't like dry weather would not approve.

 

[Doinko]

42/27 at PDX today

[RentonHill]

Best looking AK ridge yet at this time vs last couple days of ensemble runs. Less SW cold

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It will probably take longer than that as that looks like a MJO phase 5 or 6 pattern.   That is decent for CA but not so much up here.    The 850mb temps at the end of the EPS run show the focus of the colder air is in the desert SW.    That type of pattern usually ends up being pretty quiet up here.

5 is a wild card here.  Some of our best blasts have been with MJO 5.  Region 7 is the absolute best bet though.  A good wave in 7 almost always delivers decent cold.  Three is also decent for cold here as this current cold snap shows.

If the NAO had been a little bit minus we would have gotten nailed with this current block.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 34.0˚F here. Slowly melting.

[snow_wizard]

18z GEFS has a much stronger signal for cold in BC than previous runs.  Hmmmm.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Overcast and 34.0˚F here. Slowly melting.

Cold really hung on up there.  All in all this was a decent cold snap.  My bucket of water outside still has a good 2 inch thick slab of ice on it.

[TacomaWx]

41/29 here today. Month will finish +1.0F. 2 sub 40 highs and 2 trace snowfalls with the cold snap made it a bit better I guess. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

5 is a wild card here.  Some of our best blasts have been with MJO 5.  Region 7 is the absolute best bet though.  A good wave in 7 almost always delivers decent cold.  Three is also decent for cold here as this current cold snap shows.

If the NAO had been a little bit minus we would have gotten nailed with this current block.

MJO 5 with a Nina in February?    Apparently every month is different in terms of MJO patterns.

MJO 5 in February with a Nina looks like what the EPS is showing:

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Cold really hung on up there.  All in all this was a decent cold snap.  My bucket of water outside still has a good 2 inch thick slab of ice on it.

More snow would have been nice, but at least there was some, and there’s a decent chance of a bit more tonight. Plus I did really well last month, so no complaints about this winter from me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Maps today for tonight look a lot like maps yesterday for yesterday night.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maps today for tonight look a lot like maps yesterday for yesterday night.

Except last night the ECMWF showed some precip down here while tonight it shows nothing south of about Arlington. 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

41/29 here today. Month will finish +1.0F. 2 sub 40 highs and 2 trace snowfalls with the cold snap made it a bit better I guess. 

At least this month wasn't warm enough to ruin our chances for a decent Nov - Feb average.  The final third was actually pretty nippy.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

MJO 5 with a Nina in February?    Apparently every month is different in terms of MJO patterns.

MJO 5 in February with a Nina looks like what the EPS is showing:

 

I was just talking about 5 in general during the winter.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At least this month wasn't warm enough to ruin our chances for a decent Nov - Feb average.  The final third was actually pretty nippy.

Yeah I was thinking about that earlier. If this month had finished +3 or so it would’ve been pretty hard to pull off a colder than normal Dec-Feb. December finished -1.7F and this month just +1F. So just a slightly colder than normal February would get us a colder than normal winter. 

[snow_wizard]

The numbers for Jan 20 to Jan 31 IMBY were actually decent.

Average Max = 42.7

Average Min = 31.0

Average = 36.8

That's almost frigid by recent late January standards.

[T-Town]

Calm. 

[snow_wizard]

Hopefully the positive changes on the 18z GEFS will be the beginning of something.  That stronger BC cold signal is a pretty big deal.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Calm. 

Pretty much as dead as it gets.  Dead calm here as well.

[snow_wizard]

A good number of ensemble members in the sub -7 bracket on this run as well.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 41/23 day here. Still solidly chilly with just some high overcast today. Mountains are out this afternoon, kind of some cool lighting out there.

[RentonHill]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Radar starting to look interesting.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

[MossMan]

Down to 34.3

DP 31.

I still have snow on the ground! 

[Meatyorologist]

Given the currently raging -PAC (Phil and CFS), I'd say we're looking pretty spot on for a major late season blast come mid-late February.

In all seriousness with -ENSO/+QBO and some MJO schenanigans, it won't take too much to bring in a decent Arctic airmass, Hudson Bay be damned.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 33.6˚F and I still have snow on the ground. DP 30.7˚F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43/23 at SLE today 

[RentonHill]

Control (worthless on its own and is no better than an single ensemble member) shows a nice blast 

[SouthHillFrosty]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A good number of ensemble members in the sub -7 bracket on this run as well.

How does the spaghetti chart look