PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

Ended up with about a quarter inch which is the first depth I really consider measurable, so I'll take it! It brought me a lot of joy this morning to wake up to winter again.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

It came.

D*mn I’m surprised places north of Seattle didn’t do as well. Seems like randy-northwards and Seattle south did better. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Next shot to take out the PV probably mid/late February, but getting pretty late in the season by that point. Maybe another cold spring upcoming for the lower-48?  

We can still do well the second half of Feb.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We can still do well the second half of Feb.

It’s almost a tradition at this point. Prerequisite is giving up on winter because it’s “too late” for a good snow event.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s almost a tradition at this point. Prerequisite is giving up on winter because it’s “too late” for a good snow event.

I would not be surprised if we had something happen in later February. It’s hard to bet against persistence. 6 years in a row it’s found a way to snow here. 

[joelgombiner]

Nice flurries this morning! 

[Omegaraptor]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We can still do well the second half of Feb.

Yeah… after the last six winters, cancelling winter before mid-March will likely backfire.

[MossMan]

Got an update pic from home about an hour ago. 
About the same where I am currently at in Bellingham. I-5 was just wet but the plow trucks were out dumping salt on the road as it was pinging off the work van when going past him. 

[TT-SEA]

A little sun peaking through the mid-level clouds here now... 35 degrees.

[MossMan]

So many examples of good non-marginal snows and cold temps from mid to late February…2007, 2011, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and many before 2007 as well. It’s not over. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Next shot to take out the PV probably mid/late February, but getting pretty late in the season by that point. Maybe another cold spring upcoming for the lower-48?  

yep will lead to another cool/showery/snowy spring > straight into 90s/100s heat

[Phishy Wx]

suppose to get some snow showers here later this afternoon.  plenty cold for stickage.  Cloudy and 24 with a DP of 12

[TacomaWx]

36 in Tacoma, probably won’t stay sub 40 today but overall this cold snap performed better than I thought it would. Always nice when you set expectations very low and it works out in the end. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Got all the way down to 23 this morning despite lots of high overcast. Still mostly cloudy and only 30.

Looks like PDX fell to 27. Impressive 22 at VUO.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe some AR action next week... which I would be glad to see.   A very dry February can be the kiss of death for spring and early summer.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe some AR action next week... which I would be glad to see.   A very dry February can be the kiss of death for spring and early summer.  

Good! AR To start the month, cold snowy blast later in the month if we follow the Jim timeline of AR’s and arctic events! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The kiss of death is a dry spring and early summer.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF is actually wetter than normal over the next 10 days.   

[The Ms. Anthrop]

It snowed for a little over an hour in Skyway/South Seattle from 7:20ish to 8:30. Based on the NAM last night I bet some coworkers that we’d get a dusting… so yay for winning that round and those rounds on Friday night. But I’ll be gutted if this it for lowland snow this year. Crusty ice and trace amounts are no bueno! 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 35.2 after a low of 27. Managed to wake up to a little dusting in some places earlier so it snowed IMBY though it didn’t stick to much.

[JW8]

14 hours ago, JW8 said:

Just got an alert from a weather app on my phone that said, "expecting snow at 8:00 am." 

Of course, that means it most certainly is NOT coming.

Update- weather apps are smarter than all of us! 

[Omegaraptor]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF is actually wetter than normal over the next 10 days.   

Looks like lots of it falls as snow in the Cascades too. Might leave the entire West Coast with a water/snowpack surplus.

[TT-SEA]

Sky is decently bright today.   A welcome short break as we have the harshest winter weather in the country here at 1,000 feet in the Cascade foothills.  Much worse than Montana.   

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sky is decently bright today.   A welcome short break as we have the harshest winter weather in the country here at 1,000 feet in the Cascade foothills.  Much worse than Montana.   

Weird that many places near sea level had more snow this morning. Definitely must’ve been drier air closer to the mountains. 

[TacomaWx]

38 after a low of 29. Should hit 40 for the first time since Saturday this afternoon. Still should end the month with another decent negative departure. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Weird that many places near sea level had more snow this morning. Definitely must’ve been drier air closer to the mountains. 

There were a few random snowflakes here but not really noticeable.    I had to tell my it was snowing and she had to look out the window for about 30 seconds to confirm my statement.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There were a few random snowflakes here but not really noticeable.    I had to tell my it was snowing and she had to look out the window for about 30 seconds to confirm my statement.  

I figured we would atleast see some flakes here last night but did not expect accumulation this far south. I enjoyed it while it lasted because it very well could be the last snow of the season. 

[Cold Snap]

This might be the biggest weather weenie tweet of all time. Saying this would be a “non event” in a normal winter there.

[Skagit Weather]

34 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like lots of it falls as snow in the Cascades too. Might leave the entire West Coast with a water/snowpack surplus.

We'd need significantly more than modeled to get to a water/snowpack surplus, but it would be nice to see. The Canadian also looks pretty good, but the GFS remains remarkably dry. It also seems like the Euro's long range totals have not even been close to verifying in the last couple months (seemingly worse than previous winters) so I'll remain skeptical until proven wrong.

[Gradient Keeper]

So Puget Sound/vicinity and northern Washington scores again. Well, not a big snow storm, but at least it's snowing and accumulating. Looks like BC is doing decently.

Feb 4th-5th watch the models by then. No idea what for, but watch anyways.

[RentonHill]

End of the EPS. AK ridge strengthening and no HB vortex. Will be a nice third week of February. Maybe even fourth week too. #whitecastlewinter

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHill said:

End of the EPS. AK ridge strengthening and no HB vortex. Will be a nice third week of February. Maybe even fourth week too. #whitecastlewinter

Here we go!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

So Puget Sound/vicinity and northern Washington scores again. Well, not a big snow storm, but at least it's snowing and accumulating. Looks like BC is doing decently.

Feb 4/5th watch the models by then. No idea what for, but watch anyways.

Seemed like some places just got a few flakes worth of accumulation…others did a bit better especially north of Everett. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

This might be the biggest weather weenie tweet of all time. Saying this would be a “non event” in a normal winter there.

Judah is spoiled lol. He believes his area is in a prolonged snow drought even after that behemoth nor’easter last January (the one I rode out in Plymouth w/ 80mph gusts & windows shattering around me, lmao).

For reference this is the footage I took of the conditions there. I haven’t seen anything even remotely like that since Feb 2010, and even that apparently didn’t satisfy him.  

(captured one of the shattering windows at 33:22 in, fwiw). this was wild.

 

[RentonHill]

ooooo

[RentonHill]

Its great to see that CA will get some reinforcements in early Feb before the inevitable 4 month dry stretch comes up. @AlTahoe Hows it lookin down there??

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Model consensus is a beautiful thing.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

End of the EPS. AK ridge strengthening and no HB vortex. Will be a nice third week of February. Maybe even fourth week too. #whitecastlewinter

It will probably take longer than that as that looks like a MJO phase 5 or 6 pattern.   That is decent for CA but not so much up here.    The 850mb temps at the end of the EPS run show the focus of the colder air is in the desert SW.    That type of pattern usually ends up being pretty quiet up here.

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It will probably take longer than that as that looks like a MJO phase 5 or 6 pattern.   That is decent for CA but not so much up here.    The 850mb temps at the end of the EPS run show the focus of the colder air is in the desert SW.    That type of pattern usually ends up being pretty quiet up here.

when did you become such an MJO phanboy? dont get so locked in on one factor. did you even screen out the low pass signals??

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

when did you become such an MJO phanboy? dont get so locked in on one factor. did you even screen out the low pass signals??

Ag Weather Update baby!   Eric went through all of this yesterday... says the end of February for the west.   Who know if he is right.  

But in general... its better to have that cold signal over SW BC in the long range like we saw on so many EPS runs in December leading up to that big event and a couple weeks ago leading up to this current event.   If the cold is focused in the desert SW than usually even cooler than normal 850mb temps yield relatively mild conditions up here.    When I see those purple colors over BC in the long range it usually means something is coming.