PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

CPC analogs:


Feb/March 2008 was chilly
March 1951 was extremely cold/snowy, all time snowiest month in some places in NW WA
Feb 1985: Not much happened after the cold wave early in the month
Feb-March 1999: Not much but slightly chilly
Feb 1990 (three times): Snowy, over 2ft of snow in Olympia
March 2009 had a cold wave
Feb-March 1965: Not much but PDX had a bit of snow in late March
March 1976: Chilly

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

CPC analogs:


Feb/March 2008 was chilly
March 1951 was extremely cold/snowy, all time snowiest month in some places in NW WA
Feb 1985: Not much happened after the cold wave early in the month
Feb-March 1999: Not much but slightly chilly
Feb 1990 (three times): Snowy, over 2ft of snow in Olympia
March 2009 had a cold wave
Feb-March 1965: Not much but PDX had a bit of snow in late March
March 1976: Chilly

March 1951 in Clearbrook


Blaine:

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

March 1951 in Clearbrook

Those analogs are for 11 days out from now... so it assumes the models have everything right.   I wish they did analogs for the current pattern which has actually verified.

But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table.   That was an amazing early March.    And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Those analogs are for 11 days out from now... so it assumes the models have everything right.   I wish they did analogs for the current pattern which has actually verified.

But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table.   That was an amazing early March.    And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. 

Yeah, just showing what the analogs are and what they were like here. 1990 also appears three times.  Olympia had 27.4" of snow that month. 

[MossMan]

44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I figured we would atleast see some flakes here last night but did not expect accumulation this far south. I enjoyed it while it lasted because it very well could be the last snow of the season. 

I will bet you a frozen Tofurky we will see more snow than what fell this morning, sometime before mid March! It’s coming! 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Those analogs are for 11 days out from now... so it assumes the models have everything right.   I wish they did analogs for the current pattern which has actually verified.

But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table.   That was an amazing early March.    And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. 

thats a decently high regression score too. I'll hedge my bets and say that the pattern develops in third week, and fourth week is when any scoring happens. happy mr MJO????

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will bet you a frozen Tofurky we will see more snow than what fell this morning, sometime before mid March! It’s coming! 

Totally agree... winter is not over.   

I think the Feb 20 - March 5 period is the prime opportunity.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

thats a decently high regression score too. I'll hedge my bets and say that the pattern develops in third week, and fourth week is when any scoring happens. happy mr MJO????

See post above... totally on board with this.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But if in 11 days the pattern is similar to mid February 1951 as that shows... then early March might very much be on the table.   That was an amazing early March.    And also a spectacular April and summer that followed. 

Almost 40" of snow in the first 10 days of March! That blows any 10-day period I have experienced in the lowlands west of the Cascades totally out of the water.

[MossMan]

Back home now for lunch…Here is what’s left of my snow. Currently 36.2 with a DP of 30. 

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

So Puget Sound/vicinity and northern Washington scores again. Well, not a big snow storm, but at least it's snowing and accumulating. Looks like BC is doing decently.

Feb 4th-5th watch the models by then. No idea what for, but watch anyways.

Seemed like SW BC got a general 1-2” this morning. 
 

Currently 34F with some snizzle and light snow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, just showing what the analogs are and what they were like here. 1990 also appears three times.  Olympia had 27.4" of snow that month. 

I will be positively ecstatic if I get half as much snow as Blaine got in March 1951 spread out over the rest of this season. (Also not expecting that much).

Already at 21.3" for the season, which even if I get no more would be one of the better totals I have recorded.

[TT-SEA]

39 at SEA.

41 and partly sunny in North Bend.  

[NWbyNW]

Cold morning here today.  Was 28F at sea level at 9AM.  Temps have warmed to 38F.  Gray and overcast.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

39 at SEA.

41 and partly sunny in North Bend.  

Sun angles putting in work!!! B E A YOOTIFUL day out there. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tons of snow on the ground in Burns. 

[TT-SEA]

Front window view... 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tons of snow on the ground in Burns. 

honestly i thought you just made this place up. never even bothered to google it since i knew it was fake. D**n

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHill said:

honestly i thought you just made this place up. never even bothered to google it since i knew it was fake. D**n

Ironic name too... sounds hot but its actually frigid cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

honestly i thought you just made this place up. never even bothered to google it since i knew it was fake. D**n

For real?!

[LowerGarfield]

What is this precipitation called? It looks and falls like snow but is grainy. Not graupel. Falling outside.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

honestly i thought you just made this place up. never even bothered to google it since i knew it was fake. D**n

I been there can confirm it is the real deal

[Phishy Wx]

Light Snow and 30

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What is this precipitation called? It looks and falls like snow but is grainy. Not graupel. Falling outside.

Snow grains

[WeatherGeek2022]

definitely more likely not to get anything the rest of winter if something doesn't dramatically change soon in these runs.

 

rapid acceleration of declining odds by mid feb in general.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ironic name too... sounds hot but its actually frigid cold.

I've joked more than once that they should rename it Freezes.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I been there can confirm it is the real deal

Same here. In terms of climate, it’s a lot like the town in northern Utah where I went to college: semiarid climate, and in a valley subject to extreme cold pooling in the winter.

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same here. In terms of climate, it’s a lot like the town in northern Utah where I went to college: semiarid climate, and in a valley subject to extreme cold pooling in the winter.

USU in Logan?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

USU in Logan?

LOL, how did you guess? (Plus I mentioned it earlier.)

[SouthHillFrosty]

It’s over

 

[MossMan]

54 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What is this precipitation called? It looks and falls like snow but is grainy. Not graupel. Falling outside.

Snow Snifters! 

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s over

 

It's true, we can't be spoiled EVERY february after all.

[Omegaraptor]

47 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same here. In terms of climate, it’s a lot like the town in northern Utah where I went to college: semiarid climate, and in a valley subject to extreme cold pooling in the winter.

There's a member of this forum who used to live in Craig in far NW Colorado. Just a hop and a skip from Maybell which holds the state cold record.

[Anti Marine Layer]

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Its great to see that CA will get some reinforcements in early Feb before the inevitable 4 month dry stretch comes up. @AlTahoe Hows it lookin down there??

Been very cold. We haven't had any sort of mid winter melt yet which is very rare. 

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Been very cold. We haven't had any sort of mid winter melt yet which is very rare. 

Also the skiing has been fantastic. Usually the Gun Barrel face at heavenly ices up first since it is at the bottom of the mt. But this season it has been nice and chalky with very little ice. 

Not sure why its posting up side down but use your imagination. lol 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Also the skiing has been fantastic. Usually the Gun Barrel face at heavenly ices up first since it is at the bottom of the mt. But this season it has been nice and chalky with very little ice. 

Not sure why its posting up side down but use your imagination. lol 

Looks like Bariloche!

(Bad Southern Hemisphere joke.)

[Phishy Wx]

Moderate Snow and down to 28

[MossMan]

Be careful…removing snow from your windshield can be dangerous!