PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow, you are almost up there with Phil in that post when it comes to acronym density.

At least I understand Jim's acronyms. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow, you are almost up there with Phil in that post when it comes to acronym density.

I should have thrown in a little SOI, TPV, and OLR just to make it really fun.

[SnowWillarrive]

The dry air is killing my snow fall here. Just light snow here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE hit 24, EUG 22. Meanwhile I guess Seattle is mid 30s?

Saw a -9 on the car thermometer this morning. Currently 12 near Winnemucca. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Late February.   

Interestingly following the cycle of cold/snowy weather towards the end of each month this winter.  

Very possible.  We do have some semblance of an LRC this winter.  We've had pretty good 500mb blocking 3 times this season now.  No reason to think there won't be one more.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

At least I understand Jim's acronyms. 

True!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE hit 24, EUG 22. Meanwhile I guess Seattle is mid 30s?

Saw a -9 on the car thermometer this morning. Currently 12 near Winnemucca. 

Seattle proper is mid 30s.  Most places are freezing or below.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The dry air is killing my snow fall here. Just light snow here. 

For me just seeing any fall is nice.  The fact every flake is sticking helps too.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is there any chance you did one of those for each part of each winter month?

[Deweydog]

GFS still going for thicknesses in the low 460’s over SE Canada later this week. Just absurd.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Is there any chance you did one of those for each part of each winter month?

No, Jim. The end of December was quite mild.

[Phishy Wx]

looks like Pres Day Blizzard is still on track

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The dry air is killing my snow fall here. Just light snow here. 

Same as anyone else. @ShawniganLake has reported the most snow this morning, and he got only 1.5". This was never modelled to be a big dump.

[snow_wizard]

The radar shows there could be one last pretty good shot for this area just before it ends.

[Phishy Wx]

forecast for my old town in NH (lived there 2000-2003)

pretty sure I saw a lot colder. need to look at records.  looks like a quick hitter

 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same as anyone else. @ShawniganLake has reported the most snow this morning, and he got only 1.5". This was never modelled to be a big dump.

I think he is comparing to places to the south of here where there is actually some snow on the ground now... its too dry in our area to even do that.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Speaking of cold places one used to live, Logan, UT reporting -18˚F after an overnight low of -27.

Their forecast:

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

GFS still going for thicknesses in the low 460’s over SE Canada later this week. Just absurd.

Looks like New England is going to get whiplash from the temperature swings over the next week.  An incredible blast in overall torch fest there.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

forecast for my old town in NH (lived there 2000-2003)

pretty sure I saw a lot colder. need to look at records.  looks like a quick hitter

 

 

I think it could get colder than that based on what I've seen.  Quick hitter for sure though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winnemucca is beautiful. Bozeman south. 

[PuyallupChris]

Huh, this was very surprising to me. Even started driving to work, as it was dry and cold in Puyallup. Got to Federal Way and it had started snowing pretty hard. Had pretty much assumed this was going to be a nonevent.

Nothing at all downtown though. Nothing but a yucky commute in between. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes, that GFS run. 

[Ray]

Snow here sticking to cars and grassy areas on the Auburn/Algona line.  32 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like two more freezing nights before things warm up for a while.

Amazingly I managed to pull off 11 freezing mins this month.  The final third of the month saved this month from being a top tier warm January.  In the end we're probably looking at cold Nov, Dec, and Feb this winter with a warmish January.  Not terrible.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winnemucca is beautiful. Bozeman south. 

Crazy diurnal spreads there.

[TacomaWx]

Big burst of fat flakes at the end but it’s almost done. Pretty fun morning! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Huh, this was very surprising to me. Even started driving to work, as it was dry and cold in Puyallup. Got to Federal Way and it had started snowing pretty hard. Had pretty much assumed this was going to be a nonevent.

Nothing at all downtown though. Nothing but a yucky commute in between. 

The models totally botched the southern extent of the precip. For example, here is yesterday's 12Z Euro:

Light gray should have gone at least as far south as Everett and there should have been a gray blob over the south metro area.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes, that GFS run. 

You're model riding while driving?

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes, that GFS run. 

I'm fine with it.  Chilly periods showing up in this run and the 6z for that matter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The models were wrong. Excuse my handwriting, I got a hand cramp halfway through

[Rubus Leucodermis]

That was fun! Let’s do it again tomorrow morning!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

You're model riding while driving?

My wife is driving right now. I drove from Vegas to Battle Mountain. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife is driving right now. I drove from Vegas to Battle Mountain. 

splitting it up. I like it.  we do the same.  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be a 100:1 ratio at that point... so that would be 126 inches of snow in an hour!  

Your point is broadly correct, but FWIW there’s more to snow ratios than surface temps. In January 2014 we had a snow event at 10°F and it was an ~ 8/1 ratio due to poor dendritic growth. And then there was a sloppy storm last January with 13/1 ratios at 32°F on the nose.

And then there’s this year, with < 0.1” total snowfall.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... impressive!   

And it might be garbage day in case you forgot. 

Recycle.  I got it out in time. . If they come. 

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like New England is going to get whiplash from the temperature swings over the next week.  An incredible blast in overall torch fest there.

EC is gonna make 23-24 their b*tch.

[Phil]

All that cold bottled up in NE-Canada with nowhere to go. Going to be very difficult to dislodge with this SSW attempt failing.

 

[Phil]

Next shot to take out the PV probably mid/late February, but getting pretty late in the season by that point. Maybe another cold spring upcoming for the lower-48?  

[bainbridgekid]

It came.

[snow_wizard]

GFS isn't bad at all.  Pretty blocky for week two.  Maybe the early stages of a very good blocking episode.