PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just took my sleeping pills. Fu*k

Back in my Ambien days (2004-2005) I once fell asleep at my desktop computer while reading the forums and checking the evening NWS AFD’s…I woke up with my forehead against the keyboard and thousands of random letters across the screen…luckily they never posted to the forum. That might have been the OFA forum if I remember correctly. That was a crazy med…Wide awake one minute and completely out the next! 

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just as sudden as the ones I've watched on that site.  Somebody has really poisoned the waters on how you guys are seeing this IMO.

You know that even a SSW that takes out the vortex doesn’t guarantee cold to the PNW?  We’ve seen other parts of the globe get nailed and us sitting high and dry before. 

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I also remember February 2022 being an over performer. Picked up 0.3” with that on 2/24/22. Sometimes the models don’t pick up on the subtle 0.01” of precip that would normally be ignored or overlooked in a rain situation…but with snow that makes a huge difference. With temps and DPs right now there can be very high ratio snowfall. We will see what happens though. 

Nice little event that was! 

[Cold Snap]

Just went outside and there’s a faint ring around the moon! Pretty cool to look at! The one cool thing about having high clouds in the area.

[MossMan]

31.2 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice little event that was! 

Definitely doesn’t look like it’ll have nearly as  much precip as that system. It was just an example that even a couple hundredths of an inch of precip in a cold dry airmass can yield high snow ratios. That night there was nothing shown here really but we ended up with a decent little event. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looking like it might hold together over the Olympics…. Hopefully that band stays together!!

[TacomaWx]

Another good example of a surprise snowfall was 12/2/22. Picked up 3/4ths of an inch of snow with nothing modeled the night before. Temps were in the upper 20s so it was very dry (better than 10-1) snowfall. I know some other people did good that morning too. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like @ShawniganLake is about to see some action.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

That December airmass was pretty amazing, 25/16 is impressive.

Not a low in the teens but HIO nearly did in November with a 49/21 spread on the 19th. EUG had a 47/18 day.

Not many lows in the teens recently at Hillsboro, but there was a 50/19 day in Feb 2022

 

Hillsboro also had a 41/19 day on 12/17/22, and a 44/19 day on 11/30/19.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like @ShawniganLake is about to see some action.

I’m not expecting anything to reach the surface till probably midnight or later. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 39/17 spread here. Crystal clear skies sunrise to sunset, just a few high clouds moving in late. Pretty nice little cold snap along with the 37/27 yesterday.

Mostly clear and down to 29 now, so should be good for another low in the 20s tomorrow to close out the month.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m not expecting anything to reach the surface till probably midnight or later. 

I dunno… looks like some pretty strong echoes are about to pass over your area.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I dunno… looks like some pretty strong echoes are about to pass over your area.

I’ll be on the lookout. Nothing yet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1-10

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is full on winter cancel. 

[SnowySeeker50]

39/22 spread today. Currently 30 degrees

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is full on winter cancel. 

It'll change. Give it 5-6 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed it is -15 in Ely, NV. Also -15 in Bridgeport, CA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15/-11 at Burns today. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just noticed it is -15 in Ely, NV. Also -15 in Bridgeport, CA.

Anyone going out In shorts and a t-shirt would be crazy.

[JW8]

Just got an alert from a weather app on my phone that said, "expecting snow at 8:00 am." 

Of course, that means it most certainly is NOT coming.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Now -18˚F in my old college town (Logan, UT) after a 0/-30˚F day.

Got down to -62˚F (not a typo) in nearby Peter Sinks this morning.

[Phil]

FWIW the airmass modeled over Maine this weekend might be the coldest ever observed in the lower-48 at the 850mb level (consensus is for -43°C).

That would be outrageous.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro running....

This should be a spellbinding and captivating run. The kind of stuff that keeps a person awake at night, for all the wrong reasons. Well, okay, that's probably overreacting a tad.

[MossMan]

30.8

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Now -18˚F in my old college town (Logan, UT) after a 0/-30˚F day.

Got down to -62˚F (not a typo) in nearby Peter Sinks this morning.

Alright, I’m gonna say it. I’ve been dying to and it’s gonna happen so let it…

 

I don’t want anything to do with sinking my peter into anything that cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z Euro running....

This should be a spellbinding and captivating run. The kind of stuff that keeps a person awake at night, for all the wrong reasons. Well, okay, that's probably overreacting a tad.

I really need to catch up on sleep tonight but I’ve been staying up for it. Hoping to see it trend in the HRRR’s direction for tonight’s moisture.

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Just got an alert from a weather app on my phone that said, "expecting snow at 8:00 am." 

Of course, that means it most certainly is NOT coming.

Groundhog Day is coming 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

30.8

Exactly the same here.

[Gradient Keeper]

28.3, dp 13. East wind very light.

[Phil]

850mb temps drop to -44°C in SE Canada on the 00z CMC. Wtf.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW the airmass modeled over Maine this weekend might be the coldest ever observed in the lower-48 at the 850mb level (consensus is for -43°C).

That would be outrageous.

Fun fact: Maine's all time record low of -50F is the same as New Mexico and Nevada.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

850mb temps drop to -44°C in SE Canada on the 00z CMC. Wtf.

Really cold fart from the Hudson Bay PV

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z Euro running....

This should be a spellbinding and captivating run. The kind of stuff that keeps a person awake at night, for all the wrong reasons. Well, okay, that's probably overreacting a tad.

My dog is super excited for the Euro run! 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Just did a flashlight check, since we don’t have street lights.  Nothing falling from the sky here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just did a flashlight check, since we don’t have street lights.  Nothing falling from the sky here. 

And so the old battle to get moisture down to the surface through the dry outflow air begins.

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just did a flashlight check, since we don’t have street lights.  Nothing falling from the sky here. 

Lol. Canada sucks.