PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Widespread and pretty tightly grouped this time.

Some really cold temps east of the Cascades too, 15/-11 in Burns today, 22/-20 at Foster Flat, OR. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think after this "event" we have another lengthy wait ahead.   

Not sure.  We have some good MJO potential and the models are advertising the demise of the TPV (being proper there).  The models have a pretty strong signal a bit down the road.

[snow_wizard]

For those who are interested in seeing the SSW that really isn't an SSW.  Pretty darn impressive!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Euro, GFS, HRRR, and NAM 3km now all call for light snow tonight IMBY. It's happening.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think after this "event" we have another lengthy wait ahead.   

Third week of feb we’re make our b*tch

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Euro, GFS, HRRR, and NAM 3km now all call for light snow tonight IMBY. It's happening.

Looks like a pretty legit threat up there.

[Deweydog]

Sunset alert!

[snow_wizard]

MJO forecast is getting better and better.  Regions 5 and 7 have the best potential to deliver once it leaves 3.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sunset alert!

Let the plunge begin!

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Third week of feb we’re make our b*tch

 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those who are interested in seeing the SSW that really isn't an SSW.  Pretty darn impressive!

Pretty minor... can't even break up the polar vortex so its not meaningful to us down here on the surface.   We won't have that helping us like in 2018, 2019, and 2021.

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sunset alert!

Regional event. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

MJO forecast is getting better and better.  Regions 5 and 7 have the best potential to deliver once it leaves 3.

Ag Weather update went into this extensively in the new video today.   Phase 5 and 6 are not good at all for western cold... and phase 7 in February puts the focus of the cold in the middle of the country but it could also be good out here.   So maybe the last week of February if it progresses as shown.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Regional event. 

I got skunked … because the snow clouds are building .

[TT-SEA]

From Ag Weather Update today... phase 7 strongly favors that vortex over Canada again.    

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty minor... can't even break up the polar vortex so it’s not meaningful to us down here on the surface.   We won't have that helping us like in 2018, 2019, and 2021.

Doesn’t look very sudden either. Maybe a slow stratosphere warm

[snow_wizard]

Already down to freezing here.  Amazing how fast it plunges with a fully decoupled dry air mass.

This is actually pretty remarkable to have dps still in the upper teens and low 20s with no wind at all.

[MossMan]

Tim is not onboard! 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty minor... can't even break up the polar vortex so its not meaningful to us down here on the surface.   We won't have that helping us like in 2018, 2019, and 2021.

As you can tell I'm still not convinced.  I'm pretty hard pressed to think of a warming like this that didn't deliver a bit down the road.  The jury is still out on this BTW.

[MossMan]

36/22 on the day.

Currently 30.9 and cloudy. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Tim is not onboard! 

Maybe for the Feb 20-28 period?    But its January 30th so that could be a decently long wait ahead.    I tried to accelerate the timing with our Hawaii trip but looks like that has failed.   

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Doesn’t look very sudden either. Maybe a slow stratosphere warm

Just as sudden as the ones I've watched on that site.  Somebody has really poisoned the waters on how you guys are seeing this IMO.

[TacomaWx]

If anything happens it’ll be 2/14-3/7 timeframe. 

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Maybe for the Feb 20-28 period?    But its January 30th so that could be a decently long wait ahead.    I tried to accelerate the timing with our Hawaii trip but looks like that has failed.   

Yeah you really screwed up this time, Tim! Usually your control over the weather with your vacations are much more precise. I’m disappointed in you. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just as sudden as the ones I've watched on that site.  Somebody has really poised the waters on how you guys are seeing this IMO.

I think we just like giving you sh*t. A bunch of arseholes, us.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As you can tell I'm still not convinced.  I'm pretty hard pressed to think of a warming like this that didn't deliver a bit down the road.  The jury is still out on this BTW.

We will see.    I am going with Phil on this one.   He might struggle with the patterns in the PNW but the guy knows this global stuff very well.   And like he said... if he thought there was even a chance at a major SSW event he would be all over it.   

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

From Ag Weather Update today... phase 7 strongly favors that vortex over Canada again.    

Also the powerful blocking off the West Coast.

[RentonHill]

3rd week of Feb

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah you really screwed up this time, Tim! Usually your control over the weather with your vacations are much more precise. I’m disappointed in you. 

Big time screw up!   We should have stuck with the end of February like we have done in years past.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

If anything happens it’ll be 2/14-3/7 timeframe. 

Something like 1993 in that timeframe would be nice. Salem had a foot in one day and 14.1" total, Corvallis had 15" in three days, and Downtown Portland had 7.6" of snow with that snowstorm.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see.    I am going with Phil on this one.   He might struggle with the patterns in the PNW but the guy knows this global stuff very well.   And like he said... if he thought there was even a chance at a major SSW event he would be all over it.   

I will admit he is more up to speed on this aspect than I am.  Just looking at the graphs this SSW looks just like other ones I've seen.  I'm not as sure about wind reversals and all of that.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Also the powerful blocking off the West Coast.

Yeah... but that could easily evolve similar to this current event.    

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Something like 1993 in that timeframe would be nice. Salem had a foot in one day and 14.1" total, Corvallis had 15" in three days, and Downtown Portland had 7.6" of snow with that snowstorm.

I would choose 1971.  Flat out amazing late Feb/ early March event.  Quite cold and lots of snow.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Something like 1993 in that timeframe would be nice. Salem had a foot in one day and 14.1" total, Corvallis had 15" in three days, and Downtown Portland had 7.6" of snow with that snowstorm.

Basically all of the precip that month was snow as well, a very dry month with a big snowstorm. No real rain at all

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I will admit he is more up to speed on this aspect than I am.  Just looking at the graphs this SSW looks just like other ones I've seen.  I'm not as sure about wind reversals and all of that.

And I know less than you!    I am just repeating what smarter people have said.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Doinko said:

Basically all of the precip that month was snow as well, a very dry month with a big snowstorm. No real rain at all

February/March 2019 was pretty similar. Barely any rain fell during those few weeks. Even after the big snows early in the month we had plenty of wet snows on and off into early March. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I would choose 1971.  Flat out amazing late Feb/ early March event.  Quite cold and lots of snow.

Looks like Hillsboro had 5" of snow in late Feb and then a low of 20 degrees. However a COOP station in the Sylvan area of Portland had a snow depth of 13" with that late month event.
Places with elevation did amazing that winter. The station near Sylvan in Portland had 72.6" of snow total that winter. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

February/March 2019 was pretty similar. Barely any rain fell during those few weeks. Even after the big snows early in the month we had plenty of wet snows on and off into early March. 

We also had a freezing east wind event in early March.  Temp fell to freezing during the afternoon here with that.  Really quite something.

[snow_wizard]

It looks quite likely that anyone lucky enough to get moisture tonight will have snow.  Easily a cold enough air mass.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We also had a freezing east wind event in early March.  Temp fell to freezing during the afternoon here with that.  Really quite something.

I also remember a couple days before that there was a very strong east wind that went on for hours here. Believe it was either the 26th or 27th. Was a pretty incredible stretch looking back I wish I knew in the moment how crazy that few weeks was.