PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[T-Town]

Down to 33 here. Falling faster than I was expecting given the cloud cover. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks quite likely that anyone lucky enough to get moisture tonight will have snow.  Easily a cold enough air mass.

Plus the Canadian forum just crashed. Overperformance coming up!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Down to 33 here. Falling faster than I was expecting given the cloud cover. 

Based on the models I’d expect mid to upper 20s for a low here tomorrow. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we will finish with just 2.92” of rain this month. Driest January I’ve recorded (2005-present) is 2.66” in 2013. We also had 2.97” in 2017. 
 In terms of temperature right now we’re at +1.2F…but based on tomorrow forecast the month should finish about +1F. Considering how torchy most of the month was that’s pretty good. 
 Not really a great month with just 3 total freezes (4 tomorrow) and a very torchy period from 1/5-1/17. Not much precipitation to show for the gloominess at times as well. This little cold snap and surprise graupel/snow event Saturday night makes it a little better I guess. 

[Deweydog]

34 years ago right now!

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Back when you didn't need an Alaskan block to score.

Now you need PDO’s, PNA’s, NAO’s, phase 27.654 on the little circley graphy thingy, at least 12 Jim meltdowns, and Tim’s tropical vacations to line up precisely for anything to happen anymore. 

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA coming in with a 39/24 spread today. Excellent stuff.

[RentonHill]

Some 1968 history from Carlton. Exploding apple trees. Reminds me of the book “hatchet” when he was stuck up i the Yukon or somewhere and trees were exploding. 

[Meatyorologist]

Wow, I just checked the local gauge, and saw something remarkable... A 40/19 day here! Very, very unusual spread, I have never recorded a high in the 40s and a low in the 10s on the same day. Can not imagine this is common in the Seattle area.

Temp spreads on days with lows in the 10s at my location, since joining, ranked by high temperatures (snowcover days listed with an "s"):

1.) 1/30/2023 - 40/19

2.) 2/6/2019 - 39/18 (s)

3.) 2/5/2019 - 37/18 (s)

4.) 1/1/2022 - 35/19 (s)

5.) 2/10/19 - 34/16 (s)

6.) 12/21/2021 - 29/18 (s)

7.) 12/27/2021 - 26/18 (s)

8.) 12/22/2022 - 25/16 (s)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little blue now showing up on the 00Z HRRR.

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Ok, ridge.  Are you happy now Mr. confused.  

The 1989 blast featured a massive AK ridge. They flipped from bonechilling to boiling at the 500mb level at alarming speed.

[Gradient Keeper]

It hasn't been this cold in late January in a very long time, and this cold overall since January 2017, at least down here in PDX metro. The low/high temp spread even more impressive. Nice.

00z GFS in 3 minutes
This run will probably feature a whole lot of "nothing to see here" and other doldrums. I'm thinking models could turn interesting by February 4th/5th. Normally I would say, "don't hold me to that", but nah go ahead. Why not. If I'm wrong we can look back at this, have a chuckle, and publicly humiliate me. That sounds like fun, well more fun than the weather pattern the next 7+ days. C'MON!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Here it comes!

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow, I just checked the local gauge, and saw something remarkable... A 40/19 day here! Very, very unusual spread, I have never recorded a high in the 40s and a low in the 10s on the same day. Can not imagine this is common in the Seattle area.

Temp spreads on days with lows in the 10s at my location, since joining, ranked by high temperatures (snowcover days listed with an "s"):

1.) 1/30/2023 - 40/19

2.) 2/6/2019 - 39/18 (s)

3.) 2/5/2019 - 37/18 (s)

4.) 1/1/2022 - 35/19 (s)

5.) 2/10/19 - 34/16 (s)

6.) 12/21/2021 - 29/18 (s)

7.) 12/27/2021 - 26/18 (s)

8.) 12/22/2022 - 25/16 (s)

40/19 is something I’d expect to see in like Yellowstone. 39/21 here. It was colder than I thought it would be today particularly the overnight low. Actually surprised we managed 2 sub 40 highs from this little cold snap too. 

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow, I just checked the local gauge, and saw something remarkable... A 40/19 day here! Very, very unusual spread, I have never recorded a high in the 40s and a low in the 10s on the same day. Can not imagine this is common in the Seattle area.

Temp spreads on days with lows in the 10s at my location, since joining, ranked by high temperatures (snowcover days listed with an "s"):

1.) 1/30/2023 - 40/19

2.) 2/6/2019 - 39/18 (s)

3.) 2/5/2019 - 37/18 (s)

4.) 1/1/2022 - 35/19 (s)

5.) 2/10/19 - 34/16 (s)

6.) 12/21/2021 - 29/18 (s)

7.) 12/27/2021 - 26/18 (s)

8.) 12/22/2022 - 25/16 (s)

That December airmass was pretty amazing, 25/16 is impressive.

Not a low in the teens but HIO nearly did in November with a 49/21 spread on the 19th. EUG had a 47/18 day.

Not many lows in the teens recently at Hillsboro, but there was a 50/19 day in Feb 2022

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NAM 3km gives the snow to @MossMan.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

HRDPS says simply “No snow for you!”

[Rubus Leucodermis]

@MossMan gets in on the action in the 00Z GFS, too.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

NAM 3km gives the snow to @MossMan.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of places saw snow flurries. Overall I don’t think any accumulating snow has a chance south of Bellingham. 

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That December airmass was pretty amazing, 25/16 is impressive.

Not a low in the teens but HIO nearly did in November with a 49/21 spread on the 19th. EUG had a 47/18 day.

Not many lows in the teens recently at Hillsboro, but there was a 50/19 day in Feb 2022

 

Wow! That's a mid Feb-early Mar thing, don't think it could happen any other time of year.

[snow_wizard]

There's a place in Pend Oreille County called Triple Seed Orchard that dropped to -14 last night.  That's the coldest one I found in WA.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

34 years ago right now!

That was a BEAST!

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow! That's a mid Feb-early Mar thing, don't think it could happen any other time of year.

Way farther back but SLE had a 68/26 day in April 1951

[Meatyorologist]

NAM growing a bit bullish on a brief episode of light snow tomorrow morning. Maybe we'll get a dusting? Would be a nice bonus to a few days of sunny, cold, beautiful weather.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35/21˚F for the day here.

Temperature has dropped to 31.9˚F here despite the overcast.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Way farther back but SLE had a 68/26 day in April 1951

Gnarly!

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

NAM growing a bit bullish on a brief episode of light snow tomorrow morning. Maybe we'll get a dusting? Would be a nice bonus to a few days of sunny, cold, beautiful weather.

Plz don’t get my hopes up I need to go to bed and not be on radar watch all night

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Plz don’t get my hopes up I need to go to bed and not be on radar watch all night

As do I but it may just not be the night for getting to bed early!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As do I but it may just not be the night for getting to bed early!

It looks like it’s after 6am if I’m not mistaken, I’m usually up at 5

[Phishy Wx]

8 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

You guys ready for the President's Day Blizzard?

Yes, yes I am

[snow_wizard]

Some models starting to show a dusting here now.  We shall see.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little snow starting to stick to the pavement at the Ucluelet-Tofino junction on the west coast of Vancouver Island.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A little snow starting to stick to the pavement at the Ucluelet-Tofino junction on the west coast of Vancouver Island.

Models verifying way too dry on the southern end of this weak warm front.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Models verifying way too dry on the southern end of this weak warm front.

So you’re telling me there is a chance…..

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

So you’re telling me there is a chance…..

[RentonHill]

Just took my sleeping pills. Fu*k

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Showers starting to pop up in the Strait of Georgia near Texada Island.

They are moving southeastward. Past experience is that this can be a very favourable track for my backyard.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just took my sleeping pills. Fu*k

[TacomaWx]

I also remember February 2022 being an over performer. Picked up 0.3” with that on 2/24/22. Sometimes the models don’t pick up on the subtle 0.01” of precip that would normally be ignored or overlooked in a rain situation…but with snow that makes a huge difference. With temps and DPs right now there can be very high ratio snowfall. We will see what happens though. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

03Z HRRR. Hmmm… That blue blob is interestingly placed.