PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Deweydog]

In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast:

[Meatyorologist]

Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry.

What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered.

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Control (worthless on its own and is no better than an single ensemble member) shows a nice blast 

Pres day blizzard still on track

[Phishy Wx]

almost 1" of bonus snow today.  models didn't even really pick it up except for the NAM

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry.

What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered.

PDX had a 29/24 day in early March 1960 with a snowstorm from Eugene to Seattle. McMinnville had 11" of snow and a 34/22 day on the 3rd

Some great snowstorms in that late Feb period like 1993 and 2019 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Late February is kind of goated, a relatively untapped time of year. The airmasses are still quite decent but a lot needs to go right to stay below freezing all day given the higher sun angles. 1956, 1990, and 2011 are the best examples (even 2022 was pretty cold despite being so dry.

What I'm saying is that it's climatologically feasible for a 26/15 type day if all were to go right, albeit quite defficult. But if it were to happen, records would be shattered.

On the other end of the rapidly sliding spectrum, Eugene got around 6” on 2/28/96 with a lovely longwave pattern like this and still managed a high of 50…

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

PDX had a 29/24 day in early March 1960 with a snowstorm from Eugene to Seattle. McMinnville had 11" of snow and a 34/22 day on the 3rd

Some great snowstorms in that late Feb period like 1993 and 2019 

March 1960

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, Doinko said:

March 1960

The article on the lower right "Remains Calm" is hilarious.   

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The article on the lower right "Remains Calm" is hilarious.   

I love looking at these old newspapers. Here's something from the January 1960 snowstorms mentioned in that paper. Pretty dry summer followed.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast:

Alaska ridge isn't anything real special in terms of 500mb heights over Anchorage, yet yeah nicely amplified. Southeast US ridge isn't real sharp. BUT the PV lobe is located favorably and phased nicely with the Hudson Bay PV and the air mass in general to our north was very bitter.

00z GFS in 30 minutes

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Alaska ridge isn't anything real special in terms of 500mb heights over Anchorage, yet yeah nicely amplified. Southeast US ridge isn't real sharp. BUT the PV lobe is located favorably and phased nicely with the Hudson Bay PV and the air mass in general to our north was very bitter.

00z GFS in 30 minutes

 

The rest of the week’s episodes will be much prettier!

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast:

I need to go raid my dads photo albums as I know we have pics from that event! 

[Tyler Mode]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I love looking at these old newspapers. Here's something from the January 1960 snowstorms mentioned in that paper. Pretty dry summer followed.

 

Of course now the big snows are "worst in 50 years! or 100 years!"

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

In case anyone else is unhealthily living vicariously through their youth, here’s Tuesday evenings state of the blast:

We pulled that off with a Hudson's Bay low too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS continues to look nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEFS continues to look nice.

Just wait until Feb 4-5 (c)Rob 2023

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Tease!

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Just wait until Feb 4-5 (c)Rob 2023

How far north will the 60-burgers get on that day?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!).

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How far north will the 60-burgers get on that day?

That's when the models begin to look mighty interesting, so perhaps Bakersfield....

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!).

A high of 50 degrees is about to become cooler than normal in Seattle.   #winterinthepnw

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

50-burgers up to Whatcom County on the 5th (and look at that 57 in Pendleton!).

Average highs 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Light snow. 33.4˚F.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Light snow. 33.4˚F.

It’s coming! 

[MWG]

Quick drop in temps! Low for tomorrow suppose to be of 29F.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Phil]

GFS now projecting -45°C 850mb temps in SE Canada/Maine. Ridiculous cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Loads of excitement so far

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Given the currently raging -PAC (Phil and CFS), I'd say we're looking pretty spot on for a major late season blast come mid-late February.

In all seriousness with -ENSO/+QBO and some MJO schenanigans, it won't take too much to bring in a decent Arctic airmass, Hudson Bay be damned.

Baffin/Hudson vortex can be overcome but you need crazy amplification upstream. Like 2013/14 type stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is one ugly GFS run. Looks like more of the same.