PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

But I have seen even that type of snow turn into bad traction on the roads after a few days of sun and wind with temps below freezing and constant traffic.  It becomes a shiny smooth surface.   

That's exactly the situation we have here in Denver on all the side roads now. But it was made worse by our last big storm starting out as rain and then icing up as it turned to snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be another top tier warm January.

Don’t complain, it’s the only kind of top-tier January we can score anymore!

[Doinko]

Summer will torch them we'll get a November 1977, December 1919, January 1930, February 2014 and March 1960 repeat

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The valleys over there are bloody cold in the winter.

True, only hot in the summer. But dry year round. I’ve been to Brewster. It’s sagebrush country.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The fact is January was never going to deliver. 

Poor Dewey. He finally got a call right last December, his confidence soared, and he went all in on the most cursed winter month...only to be burned yet again.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

24 minutes ago, Seattle said:

And it just spiked to 59 on the inter-hour obs! Jeez making a late run at 60. Classic January behavior.

Only 53.4°F for a max here. I feel cheated.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Could be worse man. Parts of the east Willamette Valley like Stayton on up to Mollala or so have it pretty bad right now.

This is about the worst pattern we could possibly be in during the winter.  Just a load of horse shitt.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

The damage and flooding from this California storm has been immense.  Very sad seeing what wind and crazy rain numbers have done.  

I will continue to be in the California weather thread, but I still check on you guys.  Miss ya.   

Far from over it appears. The Sierras look to be absolutely hammered early next week.

 

[NWbyNW]

Beautiful view out from Bellingham tonight.  Lovely lighting with the clouds and a pink, phallic, rocket ship at the bottom left.  A mild 58F degrees right now. 

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Poor Dewey. He finally got a call right last December, his confidence soared, and he went all in on the most cursed winter month...only to be burned yet again.

Remember Matt also predicted it would not hit 90 last July in Portland.   He is good but nature can fool even him. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Excellent, so no whining if everyone from Mossman north scores big in February, and everyone to the south gets skunked. Because it didn’t matter anyhow, too long of a wait.

Post bookmarked, just in case this happens.

I'm pretty sure the only below normal temps anyone is going to see will be from cold onshore flow.  Maybe areas up north will see some continental cold again sometime later in the winter.

The point is, I'm at the point where nowhere west of the Cascades would do it for me anymore.  Just too much crap for the brief reward we see.  I have no one to blame but myself for still being here though.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is about the worst pattern we could possibly be in during the winter.  Just a load of horse shitt.

Why not enjoy the pleasant weather.  Better than 42 with sideways rain just to get some meaningless stats.

[NWbyNW]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Far from over it appears. The Sierras look to be absolutely hammered early next week.

 

You're right.  They have storms lined up for at least another week.  Whether it be rain, snow, or wind.  They're getting a pounding.  I've been trying to get the Californian's interested in their own weather, but they don't seem to care what's going on for the most part, lol. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Why not enjoy the pleasant weather.  Better than 42 with sideways rain just to get some meaningless stats.

The cold sideways rain was fun yesterday with the roaring wind. Though this is nice too.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is about the worst pattern we could possibly be in during the winter.  Just a load of horse shitt.

Dude, the snow levels for northern OR Cascades are consistently below 5k for the foreseeable future.

It can 100% get much worse than this.

See the first half of January 2021. PDX was literally outright warmer than parts of the Bay Area.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The cold sideways rain was fun yesterday with the roaring wind. Though this is nice too.

Then you are enjoying it!   I think this pattern is most pleasant way to get through winter.   Obviously its not going to be snowy and cold for months on end around here.   We had a good run in my area... and probably have another one coming up in February.    But in between I am totally fine with very comfortable weather while the CA drought issues are reduced.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The Torch Watch, because hey, there’s no decent snow chances to track, so might as well track something. (I paid for that WeatherBell access, D****T!  I’m using it, snow or no snow.)

Sunday, Monday, and next Thursday look good and torchy. Well, torchy at least. Whether or not that’s good is a matter of personal preference. Who knows, Roseburg may score a 60-burger on Thursday!

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be another top tier warm January.

I sure didn't think today would be this warm.  The models are way behind the 8 ball on this.

Being real I should have seen it coming.  Our last really cold Nov / Dec combo was 1985 and Jan 1986 was a turd.  What a disappointment though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The Torch Watch, because hey, there’s no decent snow chances to track, so might as well track something. (I paid for that WeatherBell access, D****T!  I’m using it, snow or no snow.)

Sunday, Monday, and next Thursday look good and torchy. Well, torchy at least. Whether or not that’s good is a matter of personal preference. Who knows, Roseburg may score a 60-burger on Thursday!

Disgusting.

[Doinko]

PDX only topped out at 50 today. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember Matt also predicted it would not hit 90 last July in Portland.   He is good but nature can fool even him. 

I did not remember that. Even bolder move than calling for January to deliver!

[TacomaWx]

C’mon jim….just had a top tier blast and multiple rounds of snow in an overall very wintery thanksgiving-Christmas. Things are gonna get better late January into early February. What makes cold/snow events great here is the fact that they’re not frequent. Wouldn’t be as exciting if it was guaranteed to happen every winter and we didn’t have to wait and see with 40-50 degree rain in between. 

[snow_wizard]

I guess we have to assume the summer is going to be another sizzler too.  The January curse and the hot summers seem to be going hand in hand.  Maybe the epic change in CA means something has shifted in spite of what's going on here though.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I sure didn't think today would be this warm.  The models are way behind the 8 ball on this.

Being real I should have seen it coming.  Our last really cold Nov / Dec combo was 1985 and Jan 1986 was a turd.  What a disappointment though.

1995 and 2006 each show up twice on the current analogs. Both of those had arctic blasts and 1995 had a big snowstorm here in February. I think we definitely could see some snowy weather later on in February

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess we have to assume the summer is going to be another sizzler too.  The January curse and the hot summers seem to be going hand in hand.  Maybe the epic change in CA means something has shifted in spite of what's going on here though.

2016-17 rainy season was very wet in CA.    And it was a warm and eventually smoky summer for us.

[TacomaWx]

A crazy 60/45 temp spread today here. Hard to believe just 2 weeks ago the high temp was 25. We’ve really flipped into a mild pattern quickly with 7 +50 highs since then…2 +55 highs too (58/46 on 12/26)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

C’mon jim….just had a top tier blast and multiple rounds of snow in an overall very wintery thanksgiving-Christmas. Things are gonna get better late January into early February. What makes cold/snow events great here is the fact that they’re not frequent. Wouldn’t be as exciting if it was guaranteed to happen every winter and we didn’t have to wait and see with 40-50 degree rain in between. 

I'm just to the point where it doesn't matter if it's special. I just need it.  I just love the feel of cold continental air.  It would be awesome to get through a January without a ridiculous torch for once.

Also...The models have really taken a bad turn for our prospects going forward.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

1995 and 2006 each show up twice on the current analogs. Both of those had arctic blasts and 1995 had a big snowstorm here in February. I think we definitely could see some snowy weather later on in February

Both of those were pretty much snowless up here.  Granted I would take cold and dry over this horrible pattern we are in now.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just to the point where it doesn't matter if it's special. I just need it.  I just love the feel of cold continental air.  It would be awesome to get through a January without a ridiculous torch for once.

Also...The models have really taken a bad turn for our prospects going forward.

This isn't bad at all

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just to the point where it doesn't matter if it's special. I just need it.  I just love the feel of cold continental air.  It would be awesome to get through a January without a ridiculous torch for once.

Also...The models have really taken a bad turn for our prospects going forward.

No matter what the long term ensembles say (most seem to be pretty good still early February) nobody knows what’ll happen 10-14 days out. Most of and possibly all of January is shot but that doesn’t mean it’s over. I’m sure that someday you’ll find a nice place to live on the Waterville plateau or Winthrop maybe and you won’t have to worry about this stuff much anymore. 

[TacomaWx]

Today was our warmest January day since 1/26/15 (62/42). The 6th 60+ day I’ve recorded in January (2005-present) 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Today was our warmest January day since 1/26/15 (62/42). The 6th 60+ day I’ve recorded in January (2005-present) 

The east wind has really helped reduce the torching since Christmas at PDX. Only 50 there today.

[Requiem]

Fairly intense east wind event as a whole-- seems like Clark County got rocked judging by some of Tyler's photos earlier. Peak gust at PDX was a very respectable 51 mph, which is absolutely no slouch at that location.

[Slushy Inch]

40 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This isn't bad at all

GEFS extended also good. Bummed it now might not start until FEB. The curse of JAN continues.

[RentonHill]

It will start snowing on the 31st and we’ll all owe Matt a cookie. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2007-08 was the year I struggled the most with. I wanted to rank it a lot higher, but in the end I dropped it out of the top half of years. It was a solidly cool winter regionally, probably cooler than a lot of years above it. It was great for a lot of places with elevation and east of the cascades, but I couldn’t ignore how frustrating it was in the lowlands. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It will start snowing on the 31st and we’ll all owe Matt a cookie. 

Pepperidge Farm, por favor.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pepperidge Farm, por favor.

Bordeaux or Mint Chocolate Milano

 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It will start snowing on the 31st and we’ll all owe Matt a cookie. 

bullseye

[Snownerd3000]

Great thread on late January transitions. Weather weenies only need patience.

It's coming.