PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Almost sounds like kind of a downer.

Not a lot of cold right now in our hemisphere. I am feeling good about a lot of troughing and cold maritime air. That doesn’t always add up to major events in the lowlands. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a lot of cold right now in our hemisphere. I am feeling good about a lot of troughing and cold maritime air. That doesn’t always add up to major events in the lowlands. 

My location!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We should also recognize how special February 2019 was. Expecting anything close to that is probably unrealistic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My location!

Yeah that checks out. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a very chilly February-April period. 

I haven’t even thought that far ahead yet, lol.

But I agree, a dynamic FW and/or wavelength seasonality could bring about another cold spring for lots of places.

Or not.

[TT-SEA]

Well the main rain band is basically past us here now and we didn't get a drop.   I was expecting at least some after seeing reports on here of rain with a strong east wind in the Portland area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We got 0.25” today. 0.59” on the month. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking we will at least see some maritime polar stuff later in the month.   A lot of models still like the idea of some real cold late in the month.

January is just kind of inexplicable as of late though.  Seems like we can't get through one without at least a good chunk of the month being a turd.

we must theorycraft a way to wake up january

[smerfylicious]

3rd wind event here to give me 50mph winds. Here's hoping the trees hold up, because the last one left us trapped in our neighborhood for a few days. At least we never seem to lose power

[Cold Snap]

Pretty windy IMBY now. This is definitely some of the strongest east winds I’ve seen here in Duvall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Power back on. For now. 5 hour outage. Not bad.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a lot of cold right now in our hemisphere. I am feeling good about a lot of troughing and cold maritime air. That doesn’t always add up to major events in the lowlands. 

I'm just not a fan of mP.  Hardly ever works out well here.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it’ll be several weeks at least? A lot of westerly momentum has been transported into the NH subtropics since the solstice.

Seems reminiscent of 1974/75 et al.

Meh.

Sounds like a bunch of nothing then.

Whatcom County got cold in Feb 1975, but not much here.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Meh.

Sounds like a bunch of nothing then.

Whatcom County got cold in Feb 1975, but not much here.

2006

[Slushy Inch]

CFS and EPS then I'll be done for the night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just not a fan of mP.  Hardly ever works out well here.

I am not a huge fan of whatever that pattern was we had the first 22 days of December. But it’s a lot better than what we have now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And now back down to 43F...what the hell?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Meh.

Sounds like a bunch of nothing then.

Whatcom County got cold in Feb 1975, but not much here.

I wouldn’t worry about what me or Phil say. It’s all a lot of guessing and speculation at this point. Pretty good shot we get chilly to cold again. The devil is always in the details. 

[Slushy Inch]

Way more ridging around the Aleutians on EPS.

[Tenochtitlan]

Is the Cali storm a little less wet than forecast? Still though, SFO has seen about an inch and a half of rain so far and high wind criteria have been met there. Their storms seem to usually be more sporadic than ours, with intense bands of heavy rain separated by calm periods. Interesting to check out observations.

[ShawniganLake]

53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Meh.

Sounds like a bunch of nothing then.

Whatcom County got cold in Feb 1975, but not much here.

January and February were both pretty chilly and very snowy up this way.  Looks like we were on the periphery of some fairly persistent but weaker Fraser outflow. 

[BLI snowman]

Some big gusts here in the last hour. Woke me up. Probably 35-45mph but very strong easterlies for this location.

[TT-SEA]

I can still hear the wind roaring above us here up on the ridge... the same as it was yesterday evening.    Fairly unusual in terms of duration.  The ECMWF shows the wind slowly calms down a little during the day and comes more from the SE by this evening but general easterly flow continues through the weekend.    Its 52 degrees in North Bend and 50 at SEA right now so its already warmer than the average high.   This is the opposite of cold offshore flow.

And the same overall pattern continues for most of the next 2 weeks per the EPS.    CA is pounded with rain and storms while its drier than normal up here and warmer than normal as well.  There is just no cold air to work with right now.  Sometimes we are cold and snowy when CA is squarely in the storm track but not this time.

15-day precip anomalies and 10-day surface temp anomalies from the 00Z EPS:

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

I think it’ll be several weeks at least? A lot of westerly momentum has been transported into the NH subtropics since the solstice.

Seems reminiscent of 1974/75 et al.

It's looking like a lock that we will beat Jan 2017 for wettest Jan in most of California. Setup looks identical as well. 

[AlTahoe]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

It's looking like a lock that we will beat Jan 2017 for wettest Jan in most of California. Setup looks identical as well. 

Also winter of 1994-1995 comes to mind with our early season cold and snow as well. 

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Also winter of 1994-1995 comes to mind with our early season cold and snow as well. 

August 1995 was nice

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Also winter of 1994-1995 comes to mind with our early season cold and snow as well. 

Why don't you post in the California thread? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 

Rain and snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last nights 00z CFS brought arctic air into the pnw in early February. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last nights 00z CFS brought arctic air into the pnw in early February. 

Chilly trough and then Arctic blast and then that block doesn't move

[LowerGarfield]

40 degrees out, windy, and still a bit dark outside.

[bainbridgekid]

Enumclaw had a 62 mph wind gust last night. Amazing how hard they can get hammered with East winds there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Enumclaw had a 62 mph wind gust last night. Amazing how hard they can get hammered with East winds there.

I'm friends with Clem at Enumclaw Suzuki Bike shop and he has had his large windows in his store blown out before.

[MossMan]

I see Phil canceled winter last night. Thanks Phil! 
Still quite breezy this morning and dry! Type of day if it was spring or fall I would be mowing today while the grass is so dry. 
52 degrees. 

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I see Phil canceled winter last night. Thanks Phil! 
Still quite breezy this morning and dry! Type of day if it was spring or fall I would be mowing today while the grass is so dry. 
52 degrees. 

He didn’t cancel it…he just canceled January (big surprise there). We’re not really due for more February snow since it’s happened 6 years in a row now…but I guess betting with what’s been persistent for awhile now isn’t bad. 

[TacomaWx]

It’s pretty amazing how great February has been in the 21st century with snow. Has vastly outperformed December and January…although December has been catching up in the last couple years. 
2006 3”

2009 2”

2011 7”

2014 2”

2017 5”

2018 3”

2019 22”

2020 0.5”

2021 15.5”

2022 0.3”

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

We actually turned on the AC yesterday.  Temps nearing 70°F just 10 days after windchills were -20°F. Worst kind of whiplash.

Someone shut down the Pacific already.

70 is too hot?

[TacomaWx]

Then you compare December and January…

DEC           JAN

2008 16”   2007 3”

2013 2”     2011  1”

2016 2”     2012  10.5”

2017 2”    2020  1.5”

2020 TR.

2021 11”

2022 4”

[Deweydog]

PDX’s average high bumps up a degree the day after tomorrow (which has been on TV the last couple nights…).

It’s coming.