PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Over 3 hours without power now. How long will it go? 

One thing here is east winds are so common the power has barely flickered so far.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Over 3 hours without power now. How long will it go? 

Until you turn the generator on

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Over 3 hours without power now. How long will it go? 

We did 26 hours last week.   But the direction and the strength of that wind out here caused way more problems than a more typical east wind event like tonight.  North Bend almost never loses power with the east wind.   I was surprised it went out tonight but I think there are still lingering issues from the ice storm and the windstorm last week and things are more fragile than normal at this point.  

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the pattern is locking there.

Maybe a turd for the first half of the month and something good for the second half.

Would 1995-1996 be a somewhat good analog for this winter so far?

I saw some references to 1989/1990 as well. 2005/2006 also had something in February.

[snow_wizard]

Remarkably low PNA on the GEFS extended ensemble for being that far out.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Doinko said:

Would 1995-1996 be a somewhat good analog for this winter so far?

I saw some references to 1989/1990 as well. 2005/2006 also had something in February.

For the 2005-2006 analog we’re doing a bit better than that one regionally. The late December event this year was pretty top tier even if most people south of Everett didn’t get a lot of snow…Pretty big backdoor blast in February 2006. Some snow here too. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Would 1995-1996 be a somewhat good analog for this winter so far?

I saw some references to 1989/1990 as well. 2005/2006 also had something in February.

This one was a lot colder than all of those up here for Nov and Dec.  Coming up with a suitable analog could be really tough.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Until you turn the generator on

When the power went out tonight I told my wife we need to install a whole home generator that runs on natural gas.  No fuss.   Power just comes right back on in a second!    I resisted it before because power outages have been so infrequent here since the 2006 windstorm but starting to think everything is overgrown again and PSE is not keeping up.    My neighbor's house just taunts when the power goes out.   They are in Hawaii for the winter but when the power goes out their house is still all lit up and the only lights we can see out the front window.   They aren't even there and their house is a beacon of light while we sit here in our dark house.   

I will probably change my mind when I get a quote.   But I can dream! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

For the 2005-2006 analog we’re doing a bit better than that one regionally. The late December event this year was pretty top tier even if most people south of Everett didn’t get a lot of snow…Pretty big backdoor blast in February 2006. Some snow here too. 

Yeah....the last half of Dec 2005 was a wicked torch.  Some of December was kind of similar.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....the last half of Dec 2005 was a wicked torch.  Some of December was kind of similar.

Thankfully not nearly that torchy this time

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

When the power went out tonight I told my wife we need to install a whole home generator that runs on natural gas.  No fuss.   Power just comes right back on in a second!    I resisted it before because power outages have been so infrequent here since the 2006 windstorm but starting to think everything is overgrown again.    My neighbor's house just taunts when the power goes out.   They are in Hawaii for the winter but when the power goes out their is still all lit up and the only lights we can see out the front window.   They aren't even there and their house is a beacon of light while we sit here in a our dark house.   

You would almost have to have that if you weren't home for long periods during the winter.  A house sitting without power in the winter could be really bad.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sharp temp gradient between here and the airport. The torch is moving north.

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When the power went out tonight I told my wife we need to install a whole home generator that runs on natural gas.  No fuss.   Power just comes right back on in a second!    I resisted it before because power outages have been so infrequent here since the 2006 windstorm but starting to think everything is overgrown again and PSE is not keeping up.    My neighbor's house just taunts when the power goes out.   They are in Hawaii for the winter but when the power goes out their house is still all lit up and the only lights we can see out the front window.   They aren't even there and their house is a beacon of light while we sit here in our dark house.   

I will probably change my mind when I get a quote.   But I can dream! 

My neighbor got one of those after the 2012 Derecho. We haven’t lost power since he got it.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Random question…..how much snow does Tiger Mountain average per year? I couldn’t find that data online. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When the power went out tonight I told my wife we need to install a whole home generator that runs on natural gas.  No fuss.   Power just comes right back on in a second!    I resisted it before because power outages have been so infrequent here since the 2006 windstorm but starting to think everything is overgrown again and PSE is not keeping up.    My neighbor's house just taunts when the power goes out.   They are in Hawaii for the winter but when the power goes out their house is still all lit up and the only lights we can see out the front window.   They aren't even there and their house is a beacon of light while we sit here in our dark house.   

I will probably change my mind when I get a quote.   But I can dream! 

The Generacs are about $27k. You have a big place too so it would take a hefty generator to power the whole thing, but as you age (not calling you old, but even at 38 I’m starting to feel the years.), it gets to be more of a hassle and convenience is worth the cost. Our basic generator is 9500 watt, we have a plug in on the outside of the house and we can just plug it in there, turn it on and go. It runs on an 8 gallon gas tank and that will usually last an entire day, longer when we turn it off at night, which we typically do when we go to bed. I think it was about $800 at Costco, and powers most everything, but doing laundry will overload it. It was about $1200 to have the switch installed, so overall about $2000 with fairly minimal effort, but eventually we will probably want to upgrade and our house is only about 1620 square feet, so if we had a bigger place we would need something much higher end. 

[snow_wizard]

The yard is a whole lot messier than when I looked a couple of hours ago.  Lots of branches including 3 big ones.  We had about an hour of gusts into the mid 40s...maybe even higher.  Hard to know how accurate my anemometer is in a case like this.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Random question…..how much snow does Tiger Mountain average per year? I couldn’t find that data online. 

Not a clue, and I don't think anyone keeps track.  Just a rough guess for Tiger Mountain Summit which is 1,300 feet would be about 35 - 40 inches a year, based on what I've seen.  I'm thinking the top of the mountain would be maybe 25% of what Snoqualmie Pass sees.  Just a rough guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The yard is a whole lot messier than when I looked a couple of hours ago.  Lots of branches including 3 big ones.  We had about an hour of gusts into the mid 40s...maybe even higher.  Hard to know how accurate my anemometer is in a case like this.

I just cleaned up the yard after the storm last week and when I went out earlier there were some pretty big limbs down. The winds aren’t as strong as last week, but it is very rare to have any wind from the east here. 

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Very impressive GEFS extended. Just like CFS.

February looking good again. 

[Doinko]

Looks like a gust of 46mph was recorded in Beaverton at the KPTV station. Seems like we've had gusts in the 50-55mph range at times

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows a SLOW diminishing of the winds for the Puget Sound area from here on out.  These east wind events take forever to die out completely it seems.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a gust of 46mph was recorded in Beaverton at the KPTV station. Seems like we've had gusts in the 50-55mph range at times

Here it has been very gusty. Winds go calm at times, and then 5 minutes later a huge gust will rock the house. We have an old rabbit hutch we are working on out by the shop and one of the gusts flipped it and the dogs all came scrambling in the back door to hide. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seeing some 60 burgers pop up in the McKenzie Valley and along the foothills now. @Rubus Leucodermis

[Phil]

We actually turned on the AC yesterday.  Temps nearing 70°F just 10 days after windchills were -20°F. Worst kind of whiplash.

Someone shut down the Pacific already.

[snow_wizard]

Just a weird storm.  The thing recurves and never hits land.  A real oddball.

[Blizzard777]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When the power went out tonight I told my wife we need to install a whole home generator that runs on natural gas.  No fuss.   Power just comes right back on in a second!    I resisted it before because power outages have been so infrequent here since the 2006 windstorm but starting to think everything is overgrown again and PSE is not keeping up.    My neighbor's house just taunts when the power goes out.   They are in Hawaii for the winter but when the power goes out their house is still all lit up and the only lights we can see out the front window.   They aren't even there and their house is a beacon of light while we sit here in our dark house.   

I will probably change my mind when I get a quote.   But I can dream! 

I may get one for that very reason…..when I’m out doing these road-trips would be nice to know my pumps and cameras remain online.  
My weather machine showing a 4 mph wind…yikes! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

We actually turned on the AC yesterday.  Temps nearing 70°F just 10 days after windchills were -20°F. Worst kind of whiplash.

Someone shut down the Pacific already.

We need to build a wall!

It was the same thing after the cold here.  Not nearly as warm as you got though.

[Phil]

00z GFS maintains a strong PV through the run.

Equatorward EPF vectors aren’t inspiring if you’re hoping for a SSW. I’m starting to doubt it’ll happen this month.

[Requiem]

PDX peak gust of 50 apparently-- makes it the strongest easterly gust there since September 2020.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS maintains a strong PV through the run.

Equatorward EPF vectors aren’t inspiring if you’re hoping for a SSW. I’m starting to doubt it’ll happen this month.

Do you think we'll get cold even without one?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could care less about an SSW. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you think we'll get cold even without one?

I'm thinking we will at least see some maritime polar stuff later in the month.   A lot of models still like the idea of some real cold late in the month.

January is just kind of inexplicable as of late though.  Seems like we can't get through one without at least a good chunk of the month being a turd.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could care less about an SSW. 

I was getting kind of intrigued by the extreme warming the GFS has been showing, but it keeps getting put off.  I don't think we need it, but it couldn't hurt.

[Phil]

MJO will also be neutered by the warm/shallow equatorial tropopause, resulting from the combo of strong PV and +QBO.

That reduces the chance for substantial WWB/DOKW activity and may prolong the -ENSO base state. Flip to El Niño looking less likely for 2023 unless the final warming is dynamic + early?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could care less about an SSW. 

How much less could you care?  

 

[snow_wizard]

I've been thinking...with continental drift the US will one day be EXTREMLY cold in the winter as the Pacific ocean shrinks to pretty much nothing.  The climate change in the NW will be incredible.  Too bad it millions of years away!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel really good about the rest of winter. That said I would be surprised if we saw a major arctic blast. What we saw a couple weeks ago was probably our shot as far as that goes. It does seem like we will see a long duration of below normal temps, should be opportunities for lowland snow, though I m not sold on a major widespread lowland event, in fact I would be surprised if we saw one. Though I would also be surprised if any of us did not see snow the rest of the winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I just installed a transfer switch and bought a portable generator in September. What pushed me over the edge was a 2.5-day outage inflicted by the power company because of high fire danger. A few hours is doable, but I discovered I go pretty nuts after a day or so. The generator isn't big enough to power the whole house, but handles crucial circuits such as refrigerator, propane furnace, water pressure tank, internet, and TV. Total cost under $2K. Haven't had to use it yet.

That’s what we have. You explained it much better than I did. 
 

 

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

MJO will also be neutered by the warm/shallow equatorial tropopause, resulting from the combo of strong PV and +QBO.

That reduces the chance for substantial WWB/DOKW activity and may prolong the -ENSO base state. Flip to El Niño looking less likely for 2023 unless the final warming is dynamic + early?

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a very chilly February-April period. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel really good about the rest of winter. That said I would be surprised if we saw a major arctic blast. What we saw a couple weeks ago was probably our shot as far as that goes. It does seem like we will see a long duration of below normal temps, should be opportunities for lowland snow, though I m not sold on a major widespread lowland event, in fact I would be surprised if we saw one. Though I would also be surprised if any of us did not see snow the rest of the winter.

Almost sounds like kind of a downer.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you think we'll get cold even without one?

I think it’ll be several weeks at least? A lot of westerly momentum has been transported into the NH subtropics since the solstice.

Seems reminiscent of 1974/75 et al.