MikeInEverett Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 "Forecast models lie satellites don't" - NWS retiring forecaster. Let's get cold snow within 96 hours not 384 hrs.Doesn’t mean we can’t have fun with the eye candy! 2 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yeah, I’m thinking it lasts ~ 3 weeks.Another midwinter sustained cold pattern would be a trip coming off of last December/January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 [Model Countdown]Next up.................*00z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes (7:24 PM)00z CMC(Canadian) in 3 hours 6 minutes (8:09 PM)00z ECMWF in 4 hours 42 minutes (9:45 PM)Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄❄☃ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Time to watch models 24/7. No sleep till Brooklyn. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Its been fun watching this group a few years ago when anyone who even dared salivate and talk about a model run 10 or more days out, was laughed and mocked into submission. Then little by little we started peeking and salivating a little farther out and a little further out. Now we are doing a happy dance in the 14 day la la land clown range models. Ok, I'm in. We all know how this "usually" turns out, but not always. So there IS a chance? Maybe this is the year it all holds together from this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Time to watch models 24/7. No sleep till Brooklyn.Intergalactic Planetary 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Intergalactic PlanetaryYour mom threw away your best (model) porno mag... Busted. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too. 500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gifI don’t see 1993, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2008 or 2011 (our 6 best Januaries of the last half century). Bad sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Its been fun watching this group a few years ago when anyone who even dared salivate and talk about a model run 10 or more days out, was laughed and mocked into submission. Then little by little we started peeking and salivating a little farther out and a little further out. Now we are doing a happy dance in the 14 day la la land clown range models. Ok, I'm in. We all know how this "usually" turns out, but not always. So there IS a chance? Maybe this is the year it all holds together from this far out.This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity. Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Love to see another 1990 again. To this day its still the most aggressive winter storm I've ever seen here. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yeah, I’m thinking it lasts ~ 3 weeks. Hopefully it doesn't start until after Christmas so our very cold January calls will still be on the table. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Doesn’t mean we can’t have fun with the eye candy! Too much eye candy will make you sick, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity. Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall.I agree. I think getting excited for hour 384 is basically the theme of every west coast winter. Sometimes that's all there is to look forward to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 This isn’t really an accurate narrative. We’ve always looked at the long range with impunity. Granted the long range models have probably gotten more accurate over the years, overall. Someone can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I read (granted, a few years ago) that the stuff within 10 days has gotten quite a bit more accurate in the past 20 years, but not so much the stuff out past 10 days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I agree. I think getting excited for hour 384 is basically the theme of every west coast winter. Sometimes that's all there is to look forward to. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Question for Phil, how have the verification scores been lately for the GFS vs. the Euro? Some ridiculous eye candy on these GFS runs, but it's hard to feel optimistic without the Euro being onboard. Looks like the Euro is pretty much on board. Not as extreme, but still cold. Like Ben Noll said a pretty respectable Nina like this won't be denied. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Was out and unable to look at models most of the day. The GFS is outrageous. The 18Z shows snow north of Seattle on the 21st. I'm not buying any of it though until we get inside a week with all models going in the same direction. We've seen stuff like this completely disappear before. In fact more times than not they either disappear or get severely truncated. Anyway it's fun to follow. Had a 41/27 day today but the frost all melted with the cloud cover. Currently 32 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Cold pool much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Better correlation SCORE, maybe the best yet. By the way, refresh my memory as to what that actually is. Some good years too, 1985, despite the white Christmas bust, 1990 too. 500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gifThis is looking really quite good if not exceptional with a number of very cold/snowy years. Another huge change is note the pattern shown in the D+8 now. Interesting. Correlation Score has also improved as you mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Oh dear lord... I think this is a much nicer map from a few hours earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wxUnusually good agreement between GEFS and EPS on major pattern change in time for Christmas; Colder and stormier west while ridge builds east coast https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/940674861231468545 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 00z GFS in 42 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Or this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Every time a clown range map is posted, that scenario becomes less likely to verify. Science. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Every time a clown range map is posted, that scenario becomes less likely to verify. Science.Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea.In Phil we trust!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Now that you said that it will happen. Whoops, now it won't, now it will, now it won't... you get the idea. I only hope that my post will make people more aware of the issue, and therefore avert future disasters. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I only hope that my post will make people more aware of the issue, and therefore avert future disasters.I have a rule that I don't tell my wife about a modeled arctic front or snow event until I'm sure it's going to happen. Every time I disregard the rule it goes away so I know it's a scientific fact that counting your chickens before they hatch is a truism. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 In Phil we trust!!!******AND FLATIRON TOO****** 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 00z GFS in 4 minutes! OMG 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 ******AND FLATIRON TOO******Don't forget about Snow_Wiz. He is putting this winter on the list of great ones all by the force of his will. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 ******AND FLATIRON TOO****** We both went cold for January. One of us officially went cool for December. The other went warm. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I have to give credit to Phil because at the mid/end of November he marked mid-December as the time for when the models would start to show the goods in the clown range, which has turned out to be true. Now it's all about sticking the landing. Let's hope for this forum's sake he does. Phil has done pretty well with the blow by blow out here since July or so. It's definitely been impressive. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Don't forget about Snow_Wiz. He is putting this winter on the list of great ones all by the force of his will. Also remember Rob, who as always is putting in more hours and depriving himself of more sleep than any of us tracking the models. That's like herding cats. 8 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Don't forget me. I look at them when I have the chance between work, family, fishing and video games! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Don't forget me. I look at them when I have the chance between work, family, fishing and video games! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 ******AND FLATIRON TOO******No, in Phil week trust. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Who can turn down a cookie? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 No, in Phil week trust. LolElders from the Analog Church of Flatiron will soon be biking to your door and trying to convert you. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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