December Weather In the PNW

[Guest Dome Buster]

Are you looking more than four days out???

 

#practicewhatyoupreach

Now I am.  Need a surface low at the central Oregon coast to develop.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That's the problem

 

It's just to the east of us

Here is the modeled 2M temp for Christmas day at 4PM.

 

[Deweydog]

Now I am. Need a surface low at the central Oregon coast to develop.

You need a lot of things, I suspect.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That's the problem

 

It's just to the east of us

We just need things to continue trending west and we'll be fine.

[Parksvillewx]

Looks like you guys may score big.

 

If we score big enough looks like it'd lock in a white Christmas up this way. That'd make it the 2nd one in my 30 year lifetime that I've experienced (2008 was the first obviously).

[TT-SEA]

If we score big enough looks like it'd lock in a white Christmas up this way. That'd be the 2nd one in my 30 year lifetime.

 

Wow... I would have expected that to happen more often up there.    

 

I am sure that we have had snow on the ground on Christmas more years than not here during our 13 years in this house.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That's the problem

 

It's just to the east of us

Blowing cold air into the valley...filling it like a bathtub. Surface low can come in around Coos Bay would be great

 

It's trending west. This is going to be a regional event. So much potential for this airmass about to hit us.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM in 20 minutes!

[Guest Dome Buster]

You need a lot of things, I suspect.

Nope.  Other than that I am just fine.  Thanks for the concern though.

[High Desert Mat!]

Hard to believe it wouldn't be colder with the gorge outflow. Especially the Euro model showing temperature uniformity throughout pdx and the westside. Not going to happen that way.

#gorgedensity

[Parksvillewx]

Wow... I would have expected that to happen more often up there.    

 

I am sure that we have had snow on the ground on Christmas more years than not here during our 13 years in this house.

 

Lots of close calls but as far as measurable snow, on the ground on Christmas, 2008 is the only time I can remember. I know 1996 did too but I wasn't here, so it doesn't count.

[umadbro]

I thought it didnt snow until Christmas evening or even the day after in 1996? I just remember being in battle ground for christmas and driving home on the 27th to Lynnwood. Olympia is were the snow started.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Love all the maps Dj jazzy Droppin.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If that block trends, what, 200 miles further west are we in business?

[Phil]

Gotta hand it to Phil. Whether any of this verifies to an extreme degree, he called the personnel on the field from a very long ways out. Super computers have finally caught up to his brain for the moment.

 

You did good too, Flatiron!!! Very good grammar and sentence structure!!!

Thanks for the kind words. Unfortunately, the regional details matter more for perception, so my head is still on the chopping block until those aspects verify.

[Parksvillewx]

I thought it didnt snow until Christmas evening or even the day after in 1996? I just remember being in battle ground for christmas and driving home on the 27th to Lynnwood. Olympia is were the snow started.

 

Your right.  Just looked back and it looks like it was more the 27th onward up here.

[MossMan]

I thought it didnt snow until Christmas evening or even the day after in 1996? I just remember being in battle ground for christmas and driving home on the 27th to Lynnwood. Olympia is were the snow started.

The day after for places up here, however we did have an inch or so on the 23rd...if I remember correctly...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Your right.  Just looked back and it looks like it was more the 27th onward up here.

Bellingham and Anacortes had a White Christmas that year.  Snow started about the 20th and there was snow on the ground for a few weeks.  I remember places south of Skagit County did not get snow until after Christmas

[Deweydog]

Thanks for the kind words. Unfortunately, the regional details matter more for perception, so my head is still on the chopping block until those aspects verify.

Well to me you can already claim somewhat of a victory.

[Gradient Keeper]

The trends on all 12z runs even at Day 1 was the Aleutian ridge a notch stronger, more width, and touch better amplification, to not weaken the ridge as it moved into the Gulf of Alaska, for a strong merger with Aleutian ridge, to cut-off the energy holding it south of the block, and for the block to not weaken as it sets up at Day 4-5. I expect that to continue with 00z runs tonight. If so, there is certainly room for colder runs ahead.

[Parksvillewx]

Bellingham and Anacortes had a White Christmas that year.  Snow started about the 20th and there was snow on the ground for a few weeks.  I remember places south of Skagit County did not get snow until after Christmas

 

I really wish I was here that winter. Came home to warm rain and 6ft tall snow piles in parking lots after New Years. Spent the time over Christmas in Arizona.

[BLI snowman]

If that block trends, what, 200 miles further west are we in business?

 

It's going to be a cold pattern no matter what. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I really wish I was here that winter. Came home to warm rain and 6ft tall snow piles in parking lots after New Years. Spent the time over Christmas in Arizona.

Brennan tells the same story.  Hopefully this year will make up for it for you!

[MossMan]

I really wish I was here that winter. Came home to warm rain and 6ft tall snow piles in parking lots after New Years. Spent the time over Christmas in Arizona.

Never leave home between November to March!! Was nervous going on my honeymoon to Hawaii back in November of 2012...luckily nothing was missed.

Scheduling visiting the in laws down in Arizona for April was no accident.

[Perturbed Member]

Too bad the Friday event probably doesn't have a ton of potential to be more than a dusting at least down here in the PDX area. Around here, It seems any precipitation caused by lift from an approaching modified arctic front is almost always too light and limited and runs completely dry once the temps are cold enough. Not often that we see an exception to that here. 

[BLI snowman]

Coldest Christmas since 1990 is looking likely. PDX was 33/19 that day and since then the coldest have been 2008 at 37/33 and 2009 at 42/24. Story is basically the same for Seattle.

[Deweydog]

Coldest Christmas since 1990 is looking likely. PDX was 33/19 that day and since then the coldest have been 2008 at 37/33 and 2009 at 42/24. Story is basically the same for Seattle.

The 27 year drought is over!

[BLI snowman]

Never leave home between November to March!! Was nervous going on my honeymoon to Hawaii back in November of 2012...luckily nothing was missed.

Scheduling visiting the in laws down in Arizona for April was no accident.

 

In El Nino years after mid January it's probably okay.

[BLI snowman]

The 27 year drought is over!

 

We can still do it!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Love all the maps Dj jazzy Droppin.

No problem I enjoy doing so, especially when they look as good at today's!

[Deweydog]

We can still do it!!!

All these angst filled years and it turns out all we needed was a little blue pill.

[TT-SEA]

Never leave home between November to March!! Was nervous going on my honeymoon to Hawaii back in November of 2012...luckily nothing was missed.

Scheduling visiting the in laws down in Arizona for April was no accident.

 

Those are the best months to leave home!     We don't like leaving in the summer.  

 

We go on warm weather vacations every winter and I don't remember ever missing out on a big cold and snow event.   

 

Usually we miss days and days of 45-degree sideways rain while enjoying 80s and sunshine.     Although we did miss lots of sunny, pleasant days when we were in Hawaii in February 2010.   That was not a well timed trip.   We got to watch the second week of the winter Olympics from Vancouver BC while there and it was sunny every time we turned it on.  

 

This year we are leaving for Hawaii on February 15th for the rest of the month.   Expect tons of rain or some early spring weather during that time. 

[BLI snowman]

Too bad the Friday event probably doesn't have a ton of potential to be more than a dusting at least down here in the PDX area. Around here, It seems any precipitation caused by lift from an approaching modified arctic front is almost always too light and limited and runs completely dry once the temps are cold enough. Not often that we see an exception to that here. 

 

The modeled setup is too much of a glancing blow in the upper levels to advect meaningful moisture ahead of the wind switch. That's probably not going to change, unless things shift pretty dramatically. 

[MossMan]

A toasty 44 degree moderately rainy day today.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The modeled setup is too much of a glancing blow in the upper levels to advect meaningful moisture ahead of the wind switch. That's probably not going to change, unless things shift pretty dramatically. 

This was a pretty dramatic change in itself, considering all previous model runs had not shown any kind of an event Friday.  

[snow_wizard]

The Euro looks like epic at the end of the run  Huge potential for the mother lode shortly after that.  The GEM has a very similar look at that time.

 

Looking like a seriously cold December for places that did well with the fake cold the first half of the month.

[snow_wizard]

This was a pretty dramatic change in itself, considering all previous model runs had not shown any kind of an event Friday.  

 

Ain't that the truth.  One thing I will say with the ECMWF in particular is I'm surprised it's showing any moisture at all with the cold shot at all looking at the 500mb pattern.

[BLI snowman]

This was a pretty dramatic change in itself, considering all previous model runs had not shown any kind of an event Friday.  

 

True, but it would probably take a second comparable shift at this point to produce a westside setup that is highly favorable for snowfall going in. Would make for a pretty remarkable overall shift for this range. As it stands now, we're still teetering on the glancing blow side of things on most ensembles and the operationals.

[Deweydog]

NAM is running!

[MossMan]

Those are the best months to leave home! We don't like leaving in the summer.

 

We go on warm weather vacations every winter and I don't remember ever missing out on a big cold and snow event.

 

Usually we miss days and days of 45-degree sideways rain while enjoying 80s and sunshine. Although we did miss lots of sunny, pleasant days when we were in Hawaii in February 2010. That was not a well timed trip. We got to watch the second week of the winter Olympics from Vancouver BC while there and it was sunny every time we turned it on.

 

This year we are leaving for Hawaii on February 15th for the rest of the month. Expect tons of rain or some early spring weather during that time.

True. I just couldn’t imagine missing out on a 1985/1990/1996/2008/2012 event. I would be way too twitchy and irratated to enjoy 80 degree sunshine. Though when I had the opportunity back in Jan 2008 to spend time in San Diego and go on a Baja Mexican cruise I most definitely did not pass it up. April is a good month to go, you are almost assured of never missing anything but rain and 50’s.