December Weather In the PNW

[Timmy]

Nothing positive about the gfs in the mid range.

[GobBluth]

Nothing positive about the gfs in the mid range.

looking more and more that any action will need to wait until around a potential ridge realignment around the 27-28th.

[North_County]

Modest "chunkiness" in the rain at 49°N this morning, with a decent outflow.

 

A few degrees cooler, and it would be a real mess with this wind and precipitation rate.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Raining and 37 at sea level in Victoria.

 

Same, it looks like it cooled down a bit last night then the temperature jumped again as the low approached. There's heavy snow falling about 5~10 miles west of here at lower elevations, while the entire east side of the peninsula is currently stuck in the warm sector with heavy 37F rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

TEMP rising fast here. 46 heading to 47

[Deweydog]

Sunny Saturday before Xmas!

 

#compromiseisthespiceoflife

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sunny Saturday before Xmas!

 

#compromiseisthespiceoflife

<_>

[Timmy]

Gfs is about to get fun next Wednesday

[GobBluth]

Gfs is about to get fun next Wednesday

depends if the cut off can hold steady.

[Timmy]

Never mind, 12z says goodbye ridge

[GobBluth]

depends if the cut off can hold steady.

the pacific is coming to life just in time to undercut any ridge ready to deliver goodness.

[Phil]

Sweet. I always love seeing others score on here. (Besides Phil)

F**k you.

[Deweydog]

A reset perhaps in time for a certain mid January national holiday?

[TT-SEA]

What looked like a dry, sunny week of Christmas now looks like almost daily precip.  

 

Block fails! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Reset? We never got started.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like all rain at sea level in Vancouver BC

[Timmy]

The extended gfs looks pretty progressive, normal winter troughs. Although there is a good amount of cold air not far away and things could change still. This run was half a million baby steps in the wrong direction.

[HighlandExperience]

The extended gfs looks pretty progressive, normal winter troughs. Although there is a good amount of cold air not far away and things could change still. This run was half a million baby steps in the wrong direction.

WA and BC look to have some potential next week.

[van city]

Looks like all rain at sea level in Vancouver BC

Switching over quickly from West to East.

[Timmy]

WA and BC look to have some potential next week.

i don’t live there so I don’t really care. Even though I would likely get snow at my house in that scenario. The potential that we have been seeing for several days basically disappeared on this run is all I am saying. Not putting much stock into it but definitely don’t want to see it trend that way.

[MossMan]

WA and BC look to have some potential next week.

Promising! Then hopefully we can get a pattern reset for mid to late January.

[Timmy]

This place sure died. Feels like we just hit the “acceptance” phase of the stages of grief.

[Timmy]

Heavy rain gusts to 60mph here now at Depoe Bay

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Finally switching to snow here, temperature is falling rapidly, just as I have to head into the office; figures <_>

[MossMan]

I take it the GEM is also crap? I'm too lazy to look. Glad DJ is getting some much needed rest. 

[HighlandExperience]

I take it the GEM is also crap? I'm too lazy to look. Glad DJ is getting some much needed rest.

Gem spitting out crazy snow totals per usual

[Timmy]

I take it the GEM is also crap? I'm too lazy to look. Glad DJ is getting some much needed rest.

It isn’t as bad, but only goes out 10 days. Zr for pdx Christmas and snow north of Seattle Christmas night. Cool showers to follow with cold air glancing. The pattern is much less blocky and more progressive.

[HighlandExperience]

Snoqualmie Pass closed. WA passes getting blasted

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously the 12z was not as good as the 06z in the long range, but the 06z operational had almost no ensemble support. The pattern depicted on the 12z makes some sense, hard to imagine the blocking would not break down at some point, not to say it cannot re-emerge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS says cya block.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Obviously the 12z was not as good as the 06z in the long range, but the 06z operational had almost no ensemble support. The pattern depicted on the 12z makes some sense, hard to imagine the blocking would not break down at some point, not to say it cannot re-emerge.

12z GFS operational member at day 15 holds lots of promise. Unbelievable how cold the air is just across into Canada. We obviously don't need it that cold and just need a piece of it. The SE ridge is there too.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850th.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850t_anom.conus.png

[WeatherMan101]

Snow right down to sea level and sudden temp drop

[WeatherMan101]

Looks like all rain at sea level in Vancouver BC

Changed over at the airport

[MossMan]

Snoqualmie Pass closed. WA passes getting blasted

Yeah, glad I chose not to attempt the drive today.

[CTA]

Looks like warming in the North Pacific.  Think that will cause problems for us?  I don't like seeing that area warm up.

 

[MossMan]

12z GFS operational member at day 15 holds lots of promise. Unbelievable how cold the air is just across into Canada. We obviously don't need it that cold and just need a piece of it. The SE ridge is there too.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850th.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850t_anom.conus.png

Let’s hope we can get a piece of something before February.

[umadbro]

12z GFS operational member at day 15 holds lots of promise. Unbelievable how cold the air is just across into Canada. We obviously don't need it that cold and just need a piece of it. The SE ridge is there too.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850th.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/360/850t_anom.conus.png

Only 15 days out!!

[Phil]

This place sure died. Feels like we just hit the “acceptance” phase of the stages of grief.

The collective mood on this forum swings more wildly than the 384hr GFS. Rinse, wash, repeat.

[MossMan]

Only 15 days out!!

I think reality will be a raging zonal setup. Just a gut feeling.

[Phil]

Looks like warming in the North Pacific. Think that will cause problems for us? I don't like seeing that area warm up.

 

Can see the source domain there. Steroidal west-Pacific warm pool continues to dominate the wavetrain.