December Weather In the PNW

[Kayla]

I think everyone’s just worn out.

 

10" of snowfall on Christmas day is so 2008.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2017122200/seattle/cmc_snow_acc_seattle_18.png

[umadbro]

Gem should be the drunk uncle.

[Phil]

I think everyone’s just worn out.

Even Rob appears to have tapped out. That’s kinda says something.

[umadbro]

I don't understand how one gets worn out looking at forecast models...

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is quite a bit snowier for the Puget Sound lowlands than the 12z was for early tomorrow morning.  This run undeniably digs the trough into WA more solidly than previous runs.  I was pretty surprised to see the NWS has a straight snow forecast for the EPSL on Christmas Day.  Not too bad of a pattern we are in.

[snow_wizard]

In other news today's ECMWF weeklies looked better than anything I've seen in quite some time as we get into January.

[Phil]

In other news today's ECMWF weeklies looked better than anything I've seen in quite some time as we get into January.

Don’t look beyond week two. #2007/08

[Jbolin]

10" of snowfall on Christmas day is so 2008.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2017122200/seattle/cmc_snow_acc_seattle_18.png

That's just ridiculous and uncalled for, I LOVE it.

[snow_wizard]

Don’t look beyond week two. #2007/08

 

I was referring to later in the month.  Pretty strong anomaly centers for a ensemble mean that far out.

[snow_wizard]

That's just ridiculous and uncalled for, I LOVE it.

 

In all seriousness the time frame the GEM is showing the snowfall has high potential for something fun.  The 12z WRF was really good too.  It's a very complex situation though so the models will struggle mightily with it.

[snow_wizard]

Really strange there aren't more people posting tonight with snow in the forecast.

[Front Ranger]

10" of snowfall on Christmas day is so 2008.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2017122200/seattle/cmc_snow_acc_seattle_18.png

 

Pepto Bismol for everyone!

[Jbolin]

In all seriousness the time frame the GEM is showing the snowfall has high potential for something fun.  The 12z WRF was really good too.  It's a very complex situation though so the models will struggle mightily with it.

true 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not looking good for snow here at this point.

[Deweydog]

Retrogreshion signal at 384 hours.

 

#extrapolate

[Jbolin]

Really strange there aren't more people posting tonight with snow in the forecast.

Like Jesse said earlier, some folks are burnt out

[Front Ranger]

Even Rob appears to have tapped out. That’s kinda says something.

 

Happens most years.

[Kayla]

Pepto Bismol for everyone!

 

Yuck! Never liked that stuff.

[Blizzard777]

Pepto Bismol for everyone!

Lol !!!!

 

 

Couldn't resist, asked the magic 8 ball to verify

[Blizzard777]

Temp continues to hold at 37

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really strange there aren't more people posting tonight with snow in the forecast.

Snow in the forecast for some of us but not here. If there were an impending Arctic airmass then I think it would be more active but plenty of us down here in Oregon will get nothing and likely won't for the next several days. Missing out on a White Christmas by 100 miles will be pretty agonizing but them's the breaks.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

wrf is still good.

[Jbolin]

wrf is still good.

wow

[snow_wizard]

The model runs have been like snowflakes lately...no two are alike.  The latest GFS keeps things pretty blocky right up to the end of the run again.  It shows a log jam of high pressure cells off the coast.  New ones keep running into existing cells.  That's one way retrogressions can happen.

[HighlandExperience]

Really strange there aren't more people posting tonight with snow in the forecast.

 

Wow the WRF, GEM, and GFS all look solid for Puget Sound Region. Looking forward to the EURO

[MikeInEverett]

the weather app shows snow on sunday monday wesdnay and thursday am i going to get buried

[snow_wizard]

I am really stunned at how good the models look for a white Christmas.  Looking at the 500mb maps you would never guess it, but the lower levels look fantastic.  The NAM MM5 and the WRF both show a surface low tracking straight from the west over the Puget Sound region on Christmas Eve.  The anti cyclonic flow (backwash) behind that low takes 925mb temps well below freezing again.  In general the next 4 or 5 days have potential to over perform big time.  The cold shot tonight and tomorrow is looking pretty solid with the WRF indicating lows in the low 20s tomorrow night for some people.  The pattern ain't pretty, but it might work out pretty darn well for us.

[TT-SEA]

Twas definitely snowing in Bellevue... huge flakes.

 

https://vimeo.com/248421761

[chopper 918]

Go south!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Twas definitely snowing in Bellevue... huge flakes.

 

https://vimeo.com/248421761

U big tease!

[snow_wizard]

the weather app shows snow on sunday monday wesdnay and thursday am i going to get buried

 

This is really tough call.  The pattern is so unorthodox I don't have any real reference to draw from.  This is a wait and see proposition.  For tonight I feel somewhat confident we will see some flakes, but beyond that I don't know.

[MikeInEverett]

This is really tough call. The pattern is so unorthodox I don't have any real reference to draw from. This is a wait and see proposition. For tonight I feel somewhat confident we will see some flakes, but beyond that I don't know.

Was joking when I said that, but yeah. Definitely some possible excitement coming up. If we do get anything big out of this it will almost make it better that it comes as such a surprise.

[Front Ranger]

I am really stunned at how good the models look for a white Christmas.  Looking at the 500mb maps you would never guess it, but the lower levels look fantastic.  The NAM MM5 and the WRF both show a surface low tracking straight from the west over the Puget Sound region on Christmas Eve.  The anti cyclonic flow (backwash) behind that low takes 925mb temps well below freezing again.  In general the next 4 or 5 days have potential to over perform big time.  The cold shot tonight and tomorrow is looking pretty solid with the WRF indicating lows in the low 20s tomorrow night for some people.  The pattern ain't pretty, but it might work out pretty darn well for us.

 

Yeah, it's pretty odd. You'd think there would be an analog or two, but I'm not sure...most overrunning events with weak 500mb patterns featured significant cold intrusions first.

[snow_wizard]

Really interesting radar right now.  Pretty odd progression and precip type is showing as snow although that is mostly virga.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=ATX19

[Front Ranger]

Yuck! Never liked that stuff.

 

I think most people on here would drink a gallon of it if they knew it would make it snow.

 

Maybe someone should try?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, it's pretty odd. You'd think there would be an analog or two, but I'm not sure...most overrunning events with weak 500mb patterns featured significant cold intrusions first.

 

It must be due to the block being so skinny at the base.  This is really an oddball.

[TT-SEA]

GFS is snowy on Christmas Eve and then dry and chilly all week... absolute perfection.   

[wxmet]

This is really tough call.  The pattern is so unorthodox I don't have any real reference to draw from.  This is a wait and see proposition.  For tonight I feel somewhat confident we will see some flakes, but beyond that I don't know.

The setup resembles big snowstorm events in the PNW such as Nov. 1985. The key is the strong 1040mb+ high to the north keeping cold air in place as the low pressure system moves onshore.

[MossMan]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's a 36F drizzle-fest in Victoria this evening, but I'm sure the city will get blasted with snow on Christmas eve as I'll be heading to Vancouver, which will struggle to see a flake.