NEJeremy Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Here on the west side of Omaha we managed to get under an enhanced band of snow... snowing moderately with some larger flakes even on the southwest side of town, it looks like we are going to get a little more than just a dusting tonight here. And in the last couple of minutes the snow has picked up even more with the visibility dropping, I wasn’t expecting much of anything tonight snow-wise so this is a nice surprise.it wasn't much of a band, maybe a couple of miles wide, but the flakes definitely were much bigger. looks like a decent area of returns still behind it too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 it wasn't much of a band, maybe a couple of miles wide, but the flakes definitely were much bigger. looks like a decent area of returns still behind it tooI don't know man, that was definitely much heavier of a snow then what we saw last weekend. That was pretty intense. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 You aren't hyping anything? Yet you post a GFS clown run when you know full well(or at least I hope you do) that the GFS has been way too cold in this pattern? It's been correcting warmer since the onset of this pattern before Christmas. Remember the 1060+ mb high that came out of Canada on the GFS run after run? Where is it? Oh right, that was overdone. It's showing another 1060mb high again in the day 5 range. While this could happen, given that the contiguous US record for high pressure is 1064mb, I would strongly weigh against a high of that magnitude occurring. Not only that, but the GFS is also showing 850s around -20c and surface temps around -30c. Next, lets take a look at a Skew-T pulled from the date that you refer to on your Facebook page. See that massive inversion to a "torchy" -18c? I would think that it would be very difficult to realize the amount of radiational cooling needed to cool the temperature that much and leave an inversion that large. I'm sure that the high pressure which is bound to be in place would certainly help in that regard, but the euro(with a similar strength high, which I still don't buy(I should really be a poet)) only gets temps down to ~-10 degrees. While the Euro doesn't have public soundings, I am sure it looks a whole lot more realistic than the inversion that the GFS is spitting out. Since the Euro under a markedly similar setup is over 20 degrees warmer than the GFS, whose output just looks unrealistic(and has been under similar setups this month), your Facebook post lacks the grounding to make the sort of claims that it did. Feel free to quote this post when the GFS verifies though.http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2017122718_114_41.75--96.5.pngKeep on talking mr internet tough guy lol. Anyways wow..what a great band of snow we got! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 00z GFS just went a bit more robust and a good bit farther north with the Friday wave. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 welp, I guess thats it for the weekend threat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 welp, I guess thats it for the weekend threat Not gone yet what you talking about lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Keep on talking mr internet tough guy lol. Anyways wow..what a great band of snow we got! Was definitely a nice surprise, looks like we picked up just over an inch of new snow in my backyard tonight. Not bad, not bad at all for a small snowpack refresher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM, Euro, and now GFS all in very good agreement with a stripe of 2-4” for our neck of the woods Friday. The 00z GFS just went a bit more robust and a good bit farther north with the Friday wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Damnit, wow things are sure going to crap fast for Nebraska. A week and a half with solid ensemble support only to start breaking tonight. Hopefully stuff starts to change fast. can't let these Iowa posters get there snow lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 always set your standards low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS is still bullish with amounts in SD. The first wave maybe not as temps will be near 10, but I think the second wave (the one that will hit Eastern IA) is being way overdone as temps will be in the negative teens. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Dear God that was a crappy GFS run for Nebraska for Friday and Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Dear God that was a crappy GFS run for Nebraska for Friday and Saturday.Still three days left, look how much last weekend improved a day before. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Grizz and Toasted are about to see the flakes fly... Can't complain right now. Biggest flakes so far from this event. Visibility down to less than a mile. Only half an inch so far but we will take every last freaking flake! Hope you do well the next few days! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Gem is way north for the Friday wave and more robust as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Still three days left, look how much last weekend improved a day before. its over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Gem is way north for the Friday wave and more robust as wellAlso nails Chicago with lake effect on New Years Eve. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 00z GFS just went a bit more robust and a good bit farther north with the Friday wave. Looks like 12z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hey Tom does LES still look promising? True, but I'm not going complain since we were lucky enough to get a white Christmas even though it has been a warmer than normal month overall around here. Hope I can score a couple inches through Friday. Might get lucky and get some LES over the weekend as well.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Its not over until the fat lady sings. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Keep on talking mr internet tough guy lol. Anyways wow..what a great band of snow we got! So I'm an internet tough guy for explaining why your Facebook post was without any proper grounding and trying to explain why I think the GFS is overdoing both temps and precip? Right on dude, you can go all in on the GFS, but prepare for some disappointment since the Euro has been doing better lately, even though it's not as extreme. But whatever, it's your Facebook weather hype page, not mine. Do with it as you wish. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Snow is falling now in Des Moines, IA. Should begin snowing here around 1:00AM or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Also nails Chicago with lake effect on New Years Eve. That's a set up worth watching for and many people(who I think are pretty smart) seem on board with it. I don't know a whole lot about lake effect, but since it has their attention, I'd be on the lookout for it! Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 00z UK also shifted north and looks just like the other models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yeah i feared the GFS would do this once the 18z rolled in. Looking like a bust for Nebraska, especially being this close in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Plot twist...EURO comes way south tonight. lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Plot twist...EURO comes way south tonight. loltoo bad it wont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Few flakes currently but man the radar is drying up. No worries....still puts me in the winter mood. Liking how Friday is looking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 00z Euro - 10:1 snow map through the weekend. A 20:1 ratio would put the 5" line through Cedar Rapids http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122800/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_90.pnghttp://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122800/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_90.png 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Well I guess the second wave is still on quite a few of the models that come through Nebraska Saturday, its just weaker, probably could eek out a 1-3 inches. Wouldn't take much of a strengthening to get a couple more out of it and perhaps get something like last weekend. I'll take any snow i can get lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hey Tom does LES still look promising? .That band is gonna rip wherever it sets up. Complicating factor is potential mesolow development and how that would alter the placement/duration. Given the setup I would expect peak rates on the order of 2-4" per hour somewhere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not a flake here.All eyes to Friday. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hey Tom does LES still look promising? .I would say you have a better shot at seeing LES on NYE than NE IL, however, these events are always tough to forecast this far out anyway. It's not as much of a robust signal over here as the models were indicating a couple days ago but that could change. I like your chances though. The flow will be more northerly and somewhat of an easterly component early, then come down the full fetch of the lake when its ideal for your area. Meantime, 06z NAM 3km came north and robust with qpf... Euro showing 2", GFS 2", NAM 3" through Friday for ORD...SREF mean 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The wave on Friday has some "oomph"...over performer??? Hope IA peeps cash in, esp those in E IA who have missed out in previous events.... DVN SREF mean is up to 3"... http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017122812/mw/ndfd_acc_snow_mw_42.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Light to moderate snow and 3F. About 1” down so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Well I guess the second wave is still on quite a few of the models that come through Nebraska Saturday, its just weaker, probably could eek out a 1-3 inches. Wouldn't take much of a strengthening to get a couple more out of it and perhaps get something like last weekend. I'll take any snow i can get lolWho are you and what have you done with Craig? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Light to moderate snow and 3F. About 1” down so far.I bet it feels like your in the Arctic Tundra with a temp as low as that with the flakes flying... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 13.1° on my balcony. You know you're in the PV when a high in the low 20s with 5" of powder on the ground is warm. Diving back down tomorrow into Saturday and it looks like our next shot at 20 is Tuesday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 RPM model looks good for C IA/E IA and just a tad south of Chi...I think someone is going to cash in 3-5" tomorrow from this wave...looks like a legit frontogenesis set up and very good banding signal... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I bet it feels like your in the Arctic Tundra with a temp as low as that with the flakes flying...The snow is like pixie dust, so the wind is whipping it around pretty good. Looks and feels like the dead of winter today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.