January Weather In the PNW

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779

[Phil]

Not bad at hr 384!

 

If only the Baffin Bay monster didn’t have the Arctic air on a doggy leash.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779

What are your thoughts for early February? Do you think we have a good chance of an Arctic blast?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

162 inches of snow in the mountains north of Vancouver BC. That would be incredible.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_41.png

Pretty Niña-ish. Bend will get a nice bit of snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

If only the Baffin Bay monster didn’t have the Arctic air on a doggy leash.

 

It would be really awesome if all that cold air could drop into the Midwest and east coast as they are really due. It seems like they keep getting missed this year. Hope it all works out.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Pretty Niña-ish. Bend will get a nice bit of snow.

Pretty normal, for marginal lowland events and great mountain snow... just good enough to keep the grass green and frogs quiet and Tim’s roses in hiatus... a yawner but at least back to a average winter like pattern.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If only the Baffin Bay monster didn’t have the Arctic air on a doggy leash.

 

 

I wouldn't be particularly worried about it if the 500mb looked like that, though it might be more of a stretch for places further south. That said, I've done a year's worth of hr 384 speculating this month.

[Eastvanisle]

Yep

I had and aunt farm once- it was all relative though

[Phil]

I wouldn't be particularly worried about it if the 500mb looked like that, though it might be more of a stretch for places further south. That said, I've done a year's worth of hr 384 speculating this month.

Haven’t we all, lol. That said, if the vortex is coupled to a baratropic mode stratospheric PV, that cold will be very difficult to dislodge no matter what. Great for polar bear snow weenies in the NE Canadian Arctic, though!

[Phil]

It would be really awesome if all that cold air could drop into the Midwest and east coast as they are really due. It seems like they keep getting missed this year. Hope it all works out.

Do I sense sarcasm?

 

We sure as heck ain’t due for more Arctic air. We are definitely overdue for a solid snowstorm, though. This winter has been complete and utter crap in that department.

[WeatherArchive]

The question remains if there is any actual cold air to tap into. If there isn't then there isn't. You can't just make something for nothing though Congress has been good at that until recently and the media is acting like big cry babies that their free cotton or should I say rotten candy is taken away. Though perhaps it will save their teeth from rotting away while spring keeps springing into Oregon?

 

God it is SO warm without breaking any records either.  It felt like late March out there today and people were out and about like a nice March day.  We ALMOST mowed our grass as it's very tall but it's still a tad too wet for the mower to work properly. Tomorrow is very likely if we don't get any more showers.  It's suppose to be even warmer around 60F.   No fog so things are likely a go.    

 

If we can't have decent mountain snowfall then give us the sun and fun!    Yee haw let er rip!

[TT-SEA]

According to the GFS MOS guidance... it might not even reach 50 on Friday in Seattle.     The 00Z run shows 49 that day.    Brrrrrrrr!  

[seattleweatherguy]

Hour 210 looking decent for areas north of PDX, and Andrew and Timmy.

 

Puget sound snow shadow as there is a hole in the precip from Snohomish country border to seattle

[TT-SEA]

Record high again at SEA today... although it was wimpy 56.

 

Record warm day yesterday ended with a decent front coming through and a new air mass... and then we have another record high today.   Don't see that too often.   

 

Like getting a record low on the day after the transition event following an arctic blast.      

[ShawniganLake]

Hood Canal!

 

[ShawniganLake]

EPS has improved significantly in the long range in the past 24hrs. Much more amplified North Pacific ridge.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS has improved significantly in the long range in the past 24hrs. Much more amplified North Pacific ridge.

 

E56D7681-50EA-4489-844F-56D6BD698B8D.png

Very nice! Huge improvements. I was not expecting that.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS 500mb nice improvements. Still a ways to go, but this along with the EPS are definite steps in the right direction.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018011706/348/500h_anom.na.png

 

--

12z GFS in 3 hours 55 minutes

[crf450ish]

Where’s Jimbo been?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say the ensembles are notably worse than when I looked yesterday, though I did not see the 00z suite. Pretty clear nothing of interest in the low lands or below 2000' for that matter by the end of January...I still have hope for February though. Encouraged by the EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1) The CFS has completely flipped and is now showing a warm February

 

2) Could this be the warmest Nina January on record?

[luvssnow_spokane]

According to the GFS MOS guidance... it might not even reach 50 on Friday in Seattle. The 00Z run shows 49 that day. Brrrrrrrr!

Weird and unusual to get that cold this time of year. I hope people are prepared. Weird year!!

[crf450ish]

1) The CFS has completely flipped and is now showing a warm February

 

2) Could this be the warmest Nina January on record?

A few folks on here are going to have a nuclear meltdown...

[umadbro]

I still don't understand why we look at any of the longer range. Their about as reliable as a politician of any party.

[luvssnow_spokane]

1) The CFS has completely flipped and is now showing a warm February

 

2) Could this be the warmest Nina January on record?

I am not surprised at all... pretty much expected outcome based on the overall pattern this year. Bummer

[TT-SEA]

Today is a hidden gem that will be classified as a "rainy" day.

 

Weak warm front lifting north now... then 8-10 hours of dry and warm weather... then rain this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today is a hidden gem that will classified as a "rainy" day.

 

Weak warm front lifting north now... then 8-10 hours of dry and warm weather... then rain this evening.

Maybe some more elusive 60s

[MossMan]

Today is a hidden gem that will be classified as a "rainy" day.

 

Weak warm front lifting north now... then 8-10 hours of dry and warm weather... then rain this evening.

Too bad we still do not have a radar.

[Jesse]

1) The CFS has completely flipped and is now showing a warm February

 

2) Could this be the warmest Nina January on record?

#dealinginreality

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whoaaa...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011700/city/PAFA_2018011700_forecast_240.png

[TT-SEA]

Cold like that in Alaska means the rest of the country is finally going to warm up.  

 

A warm Alaska usually equals a cold Minnesota this time of year.   

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at +3.9 through yesterday and should be around +4.1 after today.

 

PDX is at +4.3 through yesterday.

 

Going to take a really cold 13 days remaining in the month to turn that into a cold January. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Do I sense sarcasm?

 

We sure as heck ain’t due for more Arctic air. We are definitely overdue for a solid snowstorm, though. This winter has been complete and utter crap in that department.

Yes. 100% sarcasm

[HighlandExperience]

Cold like that in Alaska means the rest of the country is finally going to warm up.

 

A warm Alaska usually equals a cold Minnesota this time of year.

It’s been cold in the Deep South as well. All that will change soon.

[TT-SEA]

It’s been cold in the Deep South as well. All that will change soon.

 

 

Looks like a big snowstorm across the Upper Midwest on Sunday into Monday...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice looking Bering Sea ridge on the 12z, now within the 10 day forecast. I'm still optimistic for last week of January / first week of February. It feels like this pattern we're entering has better potential than what we had in December.

 

[Timmy]

Gem is pretty good. Low snow levels close to pdx snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major multi day AR in the long range

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, fun run!

[wx_statman]

Great post from Wunderground:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-temperature-workout-wild-gyrations-january-2018

 

Monthly record highs for Alaska (66) and New Brunswick (63) set during the past week.