January Weather In the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

Various models (and various model runs) have shown potential lowland snow with the Thurs/Fri system next week. Bears watching.

I’m liking the potential for our area.

[wx_statman]

Also, don't know if this has been mentioned yet - PDX tied the January record for consecutive 57+ readings. 

 

We're at 4 days, if today becomes the 5th we'll have a new record.

 

Previously 4 days on Jan 13-16, 2011. We just missed a 5th on 1/17/2011 with a reading of 56.

 

A 4 day streak was also observed from Dec 30th - Jan 2nd, 1981, part of a ridiculous 7 day run of 55+ warmth. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also, don't know if this has been mentioned yet - PDX tied the January record for consecutive 57+ readings. 

 

We're at 4 days, if today becomes the 5th we'll have a new record.

 

Previously 4 days on Jan 13-16, 2011. We just missed a 5th on 1/17/2011 with a reading of 56.

 

A 4 day streak was also observed from Dec 30th - Jan 2nd, 1981, part of a ridiculous 7 day run of 55+ warmth. 

 

Absolutely incredible. I think 2011 MAY be a decent match for the Feb-May period. Overall, I doubt we see an arctic outbreak of that magnitude in late February. 

 

For the winter as a whole I don't think 2010-11 is a good match, given its major November blast, and the nice cold snap around New Year's that year. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wow 2 feet of rain across central Vancouver Island. That would be probably 15ft of snow at Mt. Washington

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow 2 feet of rain across central Vancouver Island. That would be probably 15ft of snow at Mt. Washington

 

I am pretty excited we are finally going to see an active pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am pretty excited we are finally going to see an active pattern.

Pretty easy for some surprise snow events to show up for places in this pattern coming up.

[wx_statman]

Absolutely incredible. I think 2011 MAY be a decent match for the Feb-May period. Overall, I doubt we see an arctic outbreak of that magnitude in late February. 

 

For the winter as a whole I don't think 2010-11 is a good match, given its major November blast, and the nice cold snap around New Year's that year. 

 

Pretty ironic though to get both 57+ streaks on the same dates, both with -ENSO. 

[Jesse]

Also, don't know if this has been mentioned yet - PDX tied the January record for consecutive 57+ readings.

 

We're at 4 days, if today becomes the 5th we'll have a new record.

 

Previously 4 days on Jan 13-16, 2011. We just missed a 5th on 1/17/2011 with a reading of 56.

 

A 4 day streak was also observed from Dec 30th - Jan 2nd, 1981, part of a ridiculous 7 day run of 55+ warmth.

Do you happen to have a list of the top ten warmest Januaries at PDX? The resource I have only lists top 5.

[TT-SEA]

Random topic... I was checking out sun angles last night (after Tyler's post about AK) and discovered something that is probably obvious but I have never thought about it before and is pretty cool.

 

In Quito Ecuador... right along the equator... the sun angle is lowest in December and again in June and peaks at 90 degrees (straight overhead) in March and September.   The sun is in the southern sky during December at 66 degrees and in the northern sky at 66 degrees during June.   It would be so strange to have the sun coming from opposite sides of the sky at different times of the year.   

 

In Caracas... at 10N... the sun angle peaks in April and August at 90 degrees and also switches between the southern sky and the northern sky.     How strange to have peak sun in April and in August.    

 

Hawaii is at the edge of the northern extent of the sun angle in June when it is straight overhead.

 

By comparison... the sun angle in Seattle today is 21.8 degrees. 

[Timmy]

can someone post a link to the graphed ensembles?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles look slightly better. Which is nice, because the 06z ensembles were a pile of junk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to do some research to see where this January is headed in terms of warmest -ENSO Januaries. 2011 had the warm stretch, but the first week of that month was actually pretty cold. 

[wx_statman]

Do you happen to have a list of the top ten warmest Januaries at PDX? The resource I have only lists top 5.

 

There ya go -

[ShawniganLake]

can someone post a link to the graphed ensembles?

These?

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi

[Timmy]

These?

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi

yes, will that link refresh or is there a home page I have to go to?

[BLI snowman]

I am going to do some research to see where this January is headed in terms of warmest -ENSO Januaries. 2011 had the warm stretch, but the first week of that month was actually pretty cold. 

 

2006 and 1967 are both going to be hard to top.

 

And then there's 1934, the granddaddy of them all.

[ShawniganLake]

yes, will that link refresh or is there a home page I have to go to?

Should refresh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like these are the top 10 warmest Januaries on record at PDX.

 

1) 1953 47.3

2) 2006 45.5

3) 2010 45.0

4) 2003 44.7

5) 1992 44.5

6) 1994 44.4

7) 1983 44.3

8) 1981 43.8

9) 1961 43.6

9) 1967 43.6

 

Through the 16th PDX is at 45.0 this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2006 and 1967 are both going to be hard to top.

 

And then there's 1934, the granddaddy of them all.

 

We may be able to pull off a 1981 like number...

[Phil]

1) The CFS has completely flipped and is now showing a warm February

 

2) Could this be the warmest Nina January on record?

If anything, the CFS flipping warm makes me more bullish for Feb, lol.

 

I think there’s a window of opportunity during the first 10 days of Feb as the extending jet rams into the Aleutian anticyclone and tries to amplify it. Not likely, but it’s possible.

 

If the first 10 days of February flunk, then yeah, it’s probably over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Using the EURO 00z guidance, PDX would be at 44.65 through the 26th. 

[Phil]

[BLI snowman]

We may be able to pull off a 1981 like number...

 

Pretty weak -ENSO that year. This month has felt similar to that one so far, though. Dry and crappy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty weak -ENSO that year. This month has felt similar to that one so far, though. Dry and crappy.

Looking at the models not sure how dry the month will end up...

[Phil]

The 00z EPS looked very promising.

 

As the jet extends and the pattern begins its transition into a +PNA, it slams into the antecedent mass load/dirty Aleutian ridge and amplifies it enough to drive an Arctic airmass well into British Columbia.

 

While this isn’t necessarily a “likely” outcome, it has historical precedent and could happen, even if the cold pattern is brief and lasts 10 days or less.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last night's 00z ECMWF EPS ensemble snow mean is the highest yet for the Portland-Troutdale location through day 15. It's showing an average of 7 inches of snow. One member goes all the way to 14 inches. There's definitely going to be potential as we head into February.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011700/city/KTTD_2018011700_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

[Phil]

The 00z EPS looked very promising.

 

As the jet extends and the pattern begins its transition into a +PNA, it slams into the antecedent mass load/dirty Aleutian ridge and amplifies it enough to drive an Arctic airmass well into British Columbia.

 

While this isn’t necessarily a “likely” outcome, it has historical precedent and could happen, even if the cold pattern is brief and lasts 10 days or less.

 

This wouldn’t exactly be the “typical” manner in which PNW Arctic blasts unfold, however, since nothing has been “typical” about this winter to date, perhaps this would be fitting.

[ShawniganLake]

The 00z EPS looked very promising.

 

As the jet extends and the pattern begins its transition into a +PNA, it slams into the antecedent mass load/dirty Aleutian ridge and amplifies it enough to drive an Arctic airmass well into British Columbia.

 

While this isn’t necessarily a “likely” outcome, it has historical precedent and could happen, even if the cold pattern is brief and lasts 10 days or less.

 

10 days is an extremely lengthy cold pattern for the PNW. Maybe you’re not aware, but our arctic outbreaks typically last less than 5 days.

[Phil]

10 days is an extremely lengthy cold pattern for the PNW. Maybe you’re not aware, but our arctic outbreaks typically last less than 5 days.

Sorry, I meant the pattern as a whole, not the Arctic blast itself. I’m not even saying it will happen, but if it does happen, it would be during the first 10 days of February.

[TT-SEA]

This feels like a situation when something good shows up with little warning. Lots of variables in play.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This feels like a situation when something good shows up with little warning. Lots of variables in play.

I agree 100%. And it can happen over night in the models.

[Phil]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z EPS looked very promising.

 

As the jet extends and the pattern begins its transition into a +PNA, it slams into the antecedent mass load/dirty Aleutian ridge and amplifies it enough to drive an Arctic airmass well into British Columbia.

 

While this isn’t necessarily a “likely” outcome, it has historical precedent and could happen, even if the cold pattern is brief and lasts 10 days or less.

 

That's a strong signal and it does look very promising considering that's just the ensemble mean. Based on what I see there, an Arctic blast is headed to the NW if the ridge keeps amplifying.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW Phil...10 days is about as long as cool periods generally last in the PNW.

[Jesse]

BTW Phil...10 days is about as long as cool periods generally last in the PNW.

Generally cool periods can last much longer than that.

[Phil]

BTW Phil...10 days is about as long as cool periods generally last in the PNW.

What makes you say that? Many winters, even ones this century, have observed much longer ones.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks warmer thru early next week. Wiped out the snow chances for hood canal and kitsap. The weekend front is draped across Vancouver Island.

[BLI snowman]

Looking at the models not sure how dry the month will end up...

 

Yeah gonna distance ourselves from 1981 shortly. Probably won't matter much though.

[ShawniganLake]

I agree 100%. And it can happen over night in the models.

It can work both ways, of course.