1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol I'm glad some look forward to my posts. I about myself when i saw the GFS. No victory party yet but It's doing that south route or starting to like I thought it might. Baby steps my friends, baby steps.

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Is it me or does the ICON model look like its full of . And the CMC seems unchanged. That thing sure is stubborn to the very end. Things are getting interesting now.

[Money]

Looks like the ukie came south a little bit?

[Tabitha]

Is it me or does the ICON model look like its full of s**t.

 

I thought the exact same thing...

 

It has basically nothing everywhere.

 

24 hours ago it had 1.75 LE here; today it was less than 0.05.

 

I would disregard it.

[bud2380]

UK with the SLP directly over Dubuque Iowa at hour 96

[Money]

UK with the SLP directly over Dubuque Iowa at hour 96

Looks like it’s occluded at that point as well

[Money]

GEM ensembles have a much bigger spread now

 

A lot of southern solutions

 

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=96&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

[Minny_Weather]

This is why I've always been skeptical of this storm. So many solutions. And so little time left. This is what hell feels like.

[Money]

GEM ensembles have a much bigger spread now

A lot of southern solutions

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=96&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

This was the 12z run

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This is why I've always been skeptical of this storm. So many solutions. And so little time left. This is what hell feels like.

Just like last week we are starting to see signs of a major shift very close to the storm date.

[hlcater]

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

This was the 12z run

GEFS mean jumped SE too. Not sure how much spread there is because TT and the ensemble member map isnt available yet.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GEFS mean jumped SE too. Not sure how much spread there is because TT and the ensemble member map isnt available yet.

What this guy said. Just took a peak and jumped southeast. This is a good evening!

[Tabitha]

EC holding back the energy until the year 2027...

 

Through Hour 60, no one but SD and extreme NW Nebraska sees anything.

 

At Hour 78, Low just south of the KS  / NE border at the longitude of Lincoln.

 

At Hour 84; at the 4 corners of NE, KS, MO, & IA / 998 mb.

 

At Hour 90, well ESE of Des Moines / 998 mb.

 

At Hour 96, where Il, Wi, and IA meet.

 

At Hour 102; jumps into Lake Michigan and it is all over.

 

Heaviest precipitation falls over NE Nebraska, along the border of MN & IA...and into west central Wisconsin.

 

Grand Island, NE sees very heavy snow; Lincoln & Omaha about 60 miles ESE of the heavy snow band.

[NH4NU]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018011900&fh=96

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ECMWF basically stayed the same. Only makes things more interesting lol. These next couple days are gonna be crazy

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Actually if you look at it it shifted slightly south. But its the battle of the GFS and EURO.

[Hawkeye]

Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene.  Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth.

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene.  Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth.

 

euro_011900.png

Yeah I suppose that is a plus of the EURO tonight.

[Stormgeek]

Welp, if there is anything to this south trend I may very well end up in 2-3 inch range while Rochester gets yet another one... Pulling on this thing to stop moving! Obviously a long time to go yet and this just being one run. We shall see if it is a trend or not tomorrow,

[Tabitha]

I personally would shack up with Tabitha in SW SD. She is a charm. (but for the record I'am not  single). Back to the weather-- a lot to be played out in the next 4 days. The spread of the models at this distance is still great.

 

Sounds great!  I have cute shack 200 feet from the main house (almost like a log cabin!). 

 

There's no running water; but you don't need anything fancy!

 

I'll charge you $1,000 a month for rent. Late payment will result in a $100 surcharge.  No cooking, no hot plates. 

 

As an added bonus; I'll let you take care of all the snow shoveling.

 

What do you think?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Sounds great!  I have cute shack 200 feet from the main house (almost like a log cabin!). 

 

There's no running water; but you don't need anything fancy!

 

I'll charge you $1,000 a month for rent. Late payment will result in a $100 surcharge.  No cooking, no hot plates. 

 

As an added bonus; I'll let you take care of all the snow shoveling.

 

What do you think?

Well with the winter your having shouldn't be too much to shovel!

[Money]

Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene.  Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth.

 

euro_011900.png

Wow that’s actually not that bad here

[Craig-OmahaWX]

6z NAM further south as well. G'night everyone. Should be an interesting day.

[Money]

Euro ensembles over Chicago at 96

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2018011900&fh=96

[St Paul Storm]

6z GFS holding steady from 0z.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX just issued a Winter Storm Watch.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Winter Storm Watch

[Tom]

6z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011906/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011906/090/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

[Tom]

Another notable SE shift in the snow band from the 00z EPS...MKE may be in the game to see some snow.  Money/Snowshoe are close to the 6" snow mean.  C NE/OMA look good out west while DSM is riding the edge.  If this tracks even more SE over the next 2 days, it will be a large share the wealth across our sub forum.  We would need it to dig a little more and occlude for those in IA/S WI to get in the game but that's asking for a lot inside 48-72 hours.

[Tom]

After analyzing the 00z EPS members, it looks like the low reaches its peak strength as it tracks just over KC/St. Jospeh, MO and then it occludes and tracks more E than NE across S IA into the IL/WI border.

[Tom]

I remember how several people on here thought that this storm would not deliver the goods.  On the other hand, I felt otherwise (even though its not a good hit for my back yard I'm not here complaining).  It's crazy to think I've had this system on my calendar for 2 months now and here we are.  I'm really interested to see how this storm develops and if indeed some NE posters can score a blizzard from it.

 

Meantime, here is the 06z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011906/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011906/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

The German shifts even farther SE and smashes OMA...

 

 

 

 

 

The track of the 500mb vorticity is interesting...

 

[St Paul Storm]

MPX with a nice morning disco. They said to keep an eye on the convection down south. If the models are underdoing it, more latent heat release will mean a track further NW. They also state that scenario is unlikely. But something to keep an eye on.

[gosaints]

Someone is gonna have fun watching that dry slot.  Halfway decent chance its me...

[hlcater]

Someone is gonna have fun watching that dry slot.  Halfway decent chance its me...

 

I'll be sure to tell you how it is.

[FarmerRick]

I'll be sure to tell you how it is.

 

 

Ditto...  

[CentralNebWeather]

Should be a fun, interesting, rage inducing day watch the models.  Do they stay about the same, keep moving Southeast or now move back Northwest?  Local weather seems to be going all in.

[Minny_Weather]

It's 3 days out and things look good for us. What could go wrong?

[Tom]

12 NAM shifting SE and has the SLP tracking over KC...

[Tom]

Central Neb smash job in the works...