February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I think most people are okay with you posting them.

 

I have posted maps for this event whenever I was able to... I am not making any comment about it.   Just showing the data.   I would want to know.  

[Randyc321]

FWIW. That shows rain near Victoria with 850mb temps of -12. Probably off just a little.

 

I am liking that is showing all snow over Kitsap.

[Deweydog]

To be fair, you were drinking the megablast Kool aid along with everyone else at one point in December, jumping the gun and singing Phil's praises for nailing everything well in advance.

 

Even Mr. Above the Fray has moments of weakness.

Even in singing his praises as he nailed early-mid December, there was the warning that he was going to likely blow his extremecast. Not hard to see that coming.

[HighlandExperience]

FWIW. That shows rain near Victoria with 850mb temps of -12. Probably off just a little.

 

I highly doubt its all snow in the swamp, and rain on the east side. 

[wxmet]

FWIW. That shows rain near Victoria with 850mb temps of -12. Probably off just a little.

I don't have access to ECMWF temp charts between 850mb and the surface, but if there is a warm nose in that layer then rain is a possibility. 

[The Swamp]

I have posted maps for this event whenever I was able to... I am not making any comment about it. Just showing the data. I would want to know.

When will it warm up and rain Tim? Please. Tell. Us.

[HighlandExperience]

I have posted maps for this event whenever I was able to... I am not making any comment about it. Just showing the data. I would want to know.

We appreciate it

[TT-SEA]

Low temps on Tuesday morning... the coldest morning of the event.

 

[BLI snowman]

I'll be happy if PDX can score a high below 40 or low below 20 with this. Best potential down here is midweek, Euro also shows the coastal slider with a dusting as far east as about Clatskanie.

[Blizzard777]

Funny stuff

 

It was late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in South Dakota asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.

 

Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.

 

But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, 'Is the coming winter going to be cold ?'

 

'It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,' the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

 

So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared

 

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?'

 

'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service again replied, 'it's going to be a very cold winter.'

 

The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.

 

Two weeks later, the chief called the National Weather Service again. 'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?'

 

'Absolutely,' the man replied. 'It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we've ever seen.'

 

'How can you be so sure?' the chief asked.

 

The weatherman replied, 'The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.'

[Front Ranger]

Even in singing his praises as he nailed early-mid December, there was the warning that he was going to likely blow his extremecast. Not hard to see that coming.

 

I'm not even talking about the "3 week Arctic outbreak" forecast. You were getting excited in mid December just like everyone else for Arctic air by the end of the month. And preemptively giving credit to Phil - drinking the Koolaid. 

 

To act now like you were above all that and never really gave any credence to LR forecasting (whether we're talking weeks or months in advance) rings pretty hollow.

[ShawniganLake]

I don't have access to ECMWF temp charts between 850mb and the surface, but if there is a warm nose in that layer then rain is a possibility.

A warm nose behind the arctic front? Nope.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The minus ten in eastern wa is no joke. It will be much colder at Bremerton and Shelton I would think. Bremerton was 22 the other night under a much warmer air mass.

[Deweydog]

I'm not even talking about the "3 week Arctic outbreak" forecast, you were getting excited in mid December just like everyone else for Arctic air by the end of the month. And preemptively giving credit to Phil - drinking the LR forecast Koolaid.

 

To act now like you were above all that and never really gave any credence to LR forecasting (whether we're talking weeks or months in advance) rings pretty hollow.

He'd done well at that point. I remember you being a bit butt hurt by it, but credit where credit is due. He worked you over in December then you both the bed in January, until of course the big one day blast on MLK.

[Perturbed Member]

Not an obsession.  Some runs showed below freezing highs.   I am just trying to provide data from the ECMWF surface maps for people since they always ask.

 

Guess I won't do that now.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate that you post WB ECMWF data. I just interpreted you posting the high temp maps as you trying to suggest that temps are running unexpectedly high. Maybe I misinterpreted. 

[FroYoBro]

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate that you post WB ECMWF data. I just interpreted you posting the high temp maps as you trying to suggest that temps are running unexpectedly high. Maybe I misinterpreted. 

 It is just the D**n ellipses he uses...

[High Desert Mat!]

Funny it shows Redmond with a low of 15 on the coldest morning. We were in upper teens this morning and 4 two days ago. If that's what we can muster with this upcoming cold pattern then sign me up for summer already.

[TT-SEA]

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate that you post WB ECMWF data. I just interpreted you posting the high temp maps as you trying to suggest that temps are running unexpectedly high. Maybe I misinterpreted.

I have been posting the same maps for 3 or 4 days now. Regardless of what they show. Just the things people always ask for here with an event approaching.

[Perturbed Member]

12z ECMWF is much further east with the Tuesday low compared with previous runs. Looking much closer to ICON, GEM and NAVGEM. Still needs to shift further east to really deliver. The trend seems to be good though. This is the best realistic shot of snow down here.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Shift the center of this low about 150 miles east and then maybe we get some regionwide fun?

 

[Deweydog]

#trendeastplease

[Front Ranger]

He'd done well at that point. I remember you being a bit butt hurt by it, but credit where credit is due. He worked you over in December then you both s**t the bed in January, until of course the big one day blast on MLK.

So you never were on the excitement train in December, eh? I call BS.

 

And he didn't "work me over" in December. My LR forecasts for Nov and Dec worked out fine, as well as anyone's, it wasn't until Jan that things fell apart.

 

Careful, you're mighty close to appearing in the fray right now...

[Phil]

The GEFS/EPS both hold the 2008-12 throwback through the week-2 period. The 12z GEFS in particular is sexy looking. Lots of blue across the NH by early March.

 

[ShawniganLake]

#trendeastplease

That’s unusual to hear around here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ECMWF is much further east with the Tuesday low compared with previous runs. Looking much closer to ICON, GEM and NAVGEM. Still needs to shift further east to really deliver. The trend seems to be good though. This is the best realistic shot of snow down here.

 

euro_tuesday_precip.png

Shift the center of this low about 150 miles east and then maybe we get some regionwide fun?

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021512_126_1256_149.png

Yeah this is going to be our best chance to see some significant accumulations here in PDX. A few more days for the exact track to be ironed out. I think it will hammer somebody in the PNW.

[Deweydog]

So you never were on the excitement train in December, eh? I call BS.

 

And he didn't "work me over" in December. My LR forecasts for Nov and Dec worked out fine, it wasn't until Jan that things fell apart.

 

Careful, you're mighty close to appearing in the fray right now...

You're just trying to stir the pot. Phil did an outstanding job articulating and in the end calling the pattern early and mid December. It was likely going to get lost in the shuffle if/when things fell apart. It had nothing to do with months in advance forecasting.

[Phil]

He'd done well at that point. I remember you being a bit butt hurt by it, but credit where credit is due. He worked you over in December then you both s**t the bed in January, until of course the big one day blast on MLK.

Yeah, this is my recollection of it as well.

 

That said, I think we’ve opened another pandora’s box here. No way this ends without a protracted battle of ballet and butthurt, lol.

[wxmet]

A warm nose behind the arctic front? Nope.

 

Arctic front does not guarantee that temperatures in the lowest 150mb will support snow, especially near the water. That being said, ECMWF 12z shows 925mb temps around -6C in Victoria with surface temps in the mid 30s so that would support snow. In the Sound region, temps near the surface look to be too warm in the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday morning. 

[Front Ranger]

You're just trying to stir the pot. Phil did an outstanding job articulating and in the end calling the pattern early and mid December. It was likely going to get lost in the shuffle if/when things fell apart. It had nothing to do with months in advance forecasting.

I'm just calling it like I see it. Your dis-endorsement of Phil/LR forecasts in general last night rang pretty hollow after you were all aboard the retrogression train along with everyone else in December. It was a rare moment when you let your guard down and joined the fray. Humanity!

 

Stop spreading fake news about my LR forecasting (and claiming you "give credit where its due"), and I'll let you off the hook this time.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, this is my recollection of it as well.

 

That said, I think we’ve opened another pandora’s box here. No way this ends without a protracted battle of ballet and butthurt, lol.

Lol no doubt. Dewey doesn't deal with being called out very well. But hey, no one's perfect.

[Phil]

Lol, the PV is reduced to almost nothing by next week.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018021512&fh=-78

[ShawniganLake]

Arctic front does not guarantee that temperatures in the lowest 150mb will support snow, especially near the water. That being said, ECMWF 12z shows 925mb temps around -6C in Victoria with surface temps in the mid 30s so that would support snow. In the Sound region, temps near the surface look to be too warm in the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday morning.

I can’t think of a scenario where that would happen around southern Vancouver Island, after the flow has turned northerly. If YYJ is in the mid 30s Sunday morning, I’d be pretty surprised.

[Front Ranger]

I can’t think of a scenario where that would happen around southern Vancouver Island, after the flow has turned northerly. If YYJ is in the mid 30s Sunday morning, I’d be pretty surprised.

Agreed, only way that happens is if the low is stronger/slower, delaying the cold air delivery.

[Phil]

The CMC ensemble mean is usually warm/high biased with heights, and even it sees the massive -NAM/-PNA phase locking to open March.

 

[Jesse]

My Euro link is broken.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017052812,0,2017052812&projection=classical_north_america

[wxmet]

I can’t think of a scenario where that would happen around southern Vancouver Island, after the flow has turned northerly. If YYJ is in the mid 30s Sunday morning, I’d be pretty surprised.

Strong winds mixing with above freezing water helping to moderate temperatures over land. 

[ShawniganLake]

While all eyes have been on Sunday, Saturday is shown to be quite breezy around the area.

Euro shows snow near and north of border on Saturday morning. Quite a lot for parts of BC.

 

[Phil]

FWIW, looking at models today, there’s some obvious disagreement regarding which wave to break into the Eurasian/NAO domain (which is probably necessary to sustain the -PNA through next month).

 

The GFS was keying in on the first wave yesterday, but now it’s moving towards the ECMWF idea of having the second wave do the trick, which makes more sense mechanically, but will require an extra 5 days. Not a huge difference maker in the long run, but couid have short term implications for late February.

[wxmet]

Low 40s for Puget Sound? Not sure what you're looking at to get that number.

 

Surface temps around the Sound per 12z ECMWF...

 

Sunday 4AM: 32-34 degrees

Sunday 10AM: 34-37 degrees (shown to be warmest part of the day)

Sunday 4PM: 33-35 degrees

I am using weather.us. Almost forgot that site existed until I saw some maps posted here. 

[Phil]

My Euro link is broken.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017052812,0,2017052812&projection=classical_north_america

Works for me. Try this, though..has more thermodynamic options and more regions as well:

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018021512&fh=0