TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Typhoon watch for hawaii. The next 3 weeks.Out of season... strange indeed! This will be the best chance for a true arctic front coming through quickly in a long time. Models just don't quite show that yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM!!!Now with relevance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much. As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looking at the Feb 1990, 2011, and 2013 cold snaps the -15C 850mb temps predicted for this one would top all of those. None of those 3 was a classic Fraser River blast either. If we end up with snow on the ground the numbers from this event could be spectacular. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much. As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint. Yeah...this is certainly going to be a Puget Sound northward type event. The gradients will be highly favorable for gusty north winds here on Sunday. I get my coldest temperatures here with this type of situation due to no east wind to keep the atmosphere from decoupling. I still think you guys could see some surprisingly cold low level air though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I want an arctic mega BLAST and I want it NOW!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I want an arctic mega BLAST and I want it NOW!!Just three more sleeps! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I wana ride that chrome 3 wheeler!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I want an arctic mega BLAST and I want it NOW!! This looks like a classic. The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday. Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also. This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways. Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 This looks like a classic. The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday. Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also. This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways. Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible.What do you think of our snow chances after Sunday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 This looks like a classic. The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday. Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also. This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways. Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible.Big mistake here Jim. ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting. Not an attack... but worth a reminder. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Big mistake here Jim.ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting.Not an attack... but worth a reminder.Jaya mentioned alot of this cold is coming from upper levels before the front. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Big mistake here Jim. ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting. Not an attack... but worth a reminder.Careful... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looking at the Feb 1990, 2011, and 2013 cold snaps the -15C 850mb temps predicted for this one would top all of those. None of those 3 was a classic Fraser River blast either. If we end up with snow on the ground the numbers from this event could be spectacular. It should be impressively cool. Wouldn't be surprised if we score some kind of impressively cold/cloudy day or a day with cold high temps with precip falling...Lots of potential and really that's all we can ask for. NWS point forecast here is 33/21 Monday 37/16 Tuesday This would be a record min/max on Monday and Tuesday would tie the record min/max and set a record low up here....These forecasts tend to run a bit warm here so I could easily see these verifying a couple degrees lower. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Big mistake here Jim. ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting. Not an attack... but worth a reminder.Now my gut without any kind of expertise is most areas will get half inch to an inch and a half with the area getting the more than that will be the area with the convergence zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mid-30s would be pretty D**n impressive... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Careful...Yeah. I am done discussing it. Its the same thing every time with the WRF. You have to go with the ECMWF surface map in this situation. WRF is always too aggressive in this situation. Just the reality. Ignore it if you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mid-30s would be pretty d**n impressive...Yes... and that is very likely. But not well below freezing on Sunday afternoon with a north wind blasting into Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yes... and that is very likely. But not well below freezing on Sunday afternoon with a north wind blasting into Seattle. Wait people are serious about that?! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z NAM looks colder!!!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 ICON!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z NAM looks colder!!!!!!! More cold biased than Rod Hill and Mark Nelsen's illegitimate stepson. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I wonder who would win in arm wrestling, rod hill or mark nelson? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I wonder who would win in arm wrestling, rod hill or mark nelson?Matt Zaffino would cross country ski their asses before they'd have the chance to wrestle. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Stronger shortwave. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Still loving the track of the low on the ICON. Anywhere on the very north edge of that low should get some nice snowfall. I'm assuming that's what the ECMWF has hinted at with it's occasional focus on the South Sound.Yep each model run shows some very heavy precipitation right around the low. If the northerly winds pick up prior to the precipitation moving out of the region, you could get some pretty nice snowfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Seems like the timing has moved up a bit. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow per the 00Z GFS through Sunday evening at 10 p.m. Precip is done at this point from Portland northward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Hey! Where did my snow go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Need to get that 500mb shortwave to dig further and shift the low track further south. Still time for that to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much. As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint. History would agree with you. Doesn't happen very often this late. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow per the 00Z GFS through Sunday evening at 10 p.m. Precip is done at this point from Portland northward.Shows 1 to 2 inches in king county at face value if reading it right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Shows 1 to 2 inches in king county at face value if reading it right At face value... its less than an inch for most of the lowland areas of King County. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm learning alot just by reading this fourum. It's very exciting. Me, too. It's really interesting. (Both the weather AND the snark. ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Everything is shifted a tad east on the 00Z GFS. Nothing too serious but it makes the temps go up 1 or 2 degrees. We'll have to see how the rest of the run plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Round 2? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 GFS looks similar to Euro snow totals... <_> Hope the EURO at least gives us 1-3 inches tonight. Not liking the dry trend. Trace to 1 inch over most of king county ugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 At face value... its less than an inch for most of the lowland areas of King County. But it's also a low-res, shitty map. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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