February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX hit 40.

 

What’s even more surprising is that BLI did. There must have been some sort of downslope component up there.

[Arctic Front]

For being something everyone here loves so much you seem grumpy.

A case of the winter blues.

[Geos]

NWS updated their zone forecast for the EPSL...

 

Friday: Partly sunny, then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

Friday Night: Rain and snow. Snow level near 300ft. Snow accumulation 1 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 7 inches.

 

Seems like they are thinking 1-2 inches widespread followed by higher accumulation for any places with elevation. Not too shabby.

 

Nice.

 

Temp leveled off at 35 here. Should be dropping within the hour. Dew point fell to 19. 

I like tomorrows prospects.

[Blizzard777]

Looking at webcams back home snow is gone in all sunny locations.

Snow gone here in Tigard too

Need a reload!

[Geos]

Total run of the RGEM.

 

[Farmboy]

They will seem pessimistic regardless of what will actually happen.

 

It's Seattle and it's the NWS office in Seattle... it's practically their job to remain pessimistic because 9 times out of 10 the snow forecast will fall on the sh*tty side rather than a full-blown snowstorm.

 

Such is the nature of our climate here.

Maybe they lurk here on the forum, and seeing how worked up Puget Sound people are, decided to be evil, knowing that a 2-7 inch snow forecast for EPSL will bust...

[HighlandExperience]

Maybe they lurk here on the forum, and seeing how worked up Puget Sound people are, decided to be evil, knowing that a 2-7 inch snow forecast for EPSL will bust...

Cliff Mass reads this forum and shakes his head

[Deweydog]

Sort of an interesting seasonal hybrid. Cold core showers unexpectedly drifting SW off the Cascades in the afternoon reminds me a bit of a spring pattern with a ULL sinking south. Difference being there is a modified arctic airmass overhead right now and the shower was mostly snow.

Definitely a whiff of ULL season.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cliff Mass reads this forum and shakes his head

**** him.

[seattleweatherguy]

Cliff Mass reads this forum and shakes his head

Nah Jeff Renner reads this fourum and is in disbelief.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gotta think we won't be nearly as cold as most of the rest of the lowlands tonight. Might get down to 32

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nah Jeff Renner reads this fourum and is in disbelief.

Jeff don't even look at the models anymore, to busy f***** with his hair.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will admit I would like to see Jeff Renner and Steve Pool in the boxing ring. I think Renner would take him.

[HighlandExperience]

 

Not sure if this was already talked about or not. Nice to have that monkey off our back.

 

For the first time in 7 years, #Seattle has set a new daily record low temperature. 27-degree reading this morning breaks previous mark of 30 degrees (from 2005)— Seattle Weather Blog (@KSeattleWeather) February 22, 2018

I think I read that this morning. Wow seven years. We should feel sad it’s been that long!

[Jesse]

Actually getting a decent snow shower now. Sticking to the roof and cars.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

12z Euro ensembles look quite snowy for Everett area.

 

Where is the website for that?  It looks quite good.

[Geos]

 

Not sure if this was already talked about or not. Nice to have that monkey off our back.

For the first time in 7 years, #Seattle has set a new daily record low temperature. 27-degree reading this morning breaks previous mark of 30 degrees (from 2005)

— Seattle Weather Blog (@KSeattleWeather) February 22, 2018

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

That was a weak record low!

[bainbridgekid]

Been an incredible run of cold in Arlington.

 

Sunday: 37/26 (with a foot of snow)

Monday: 34/21

Tuesday: 36/18

Wednesday: 35/15

Thursday: 36/13

[Jesse]

I think I read that this morning. Wow seven years. We should feel sad it’s been that long!

 

I've always admired you ability to put a positive spin on things.

[Geos]

Dang - dew point dipped another 3 degrees to 16. Temp now 34. Should be well below freezing tonight. 

 

[Winterdog]

Not sure if this was already talked about or not. Nice to have that monkey off our back.

 

For the first time in 7 years, #Seattle has set a new daily record low temperature. 27-degree reading this morning breaks previous mark of 30 degrees (from 2005)— Seattle Weather Blog (@KSeattleWeather) February 22, 2018

The actual low was 26 II believe

[jaya]

12z Euro ensembles look quite snowy for Everett area.

Is the bottom graph snow for KPAE.  If so, wow that is impressive.  Snow levels do look like they will generally stay low for a while, and KPAE is at nearly 600 feet, so it could be interesting.  That could be especially true if we get into some convergence zone action!

[HighlandExperience]

[wx_statman]

Did the same thing here a while ago. Little bit of instability from the surface heating and a very cold air mass aloft I imagine.

 

Definitely a cold airmass overhead when 40 at the surface counts as heating. I don't recall a pattern like this happening anytime in the recent past.

[Deweydog]

Definitely a cold airmass overhead when 40 at the surface counts as heating. I don't recall a pattern like this happening anytime in the recent past.

Definitely. Typically in a setup like this we'd be overwhelmed by dry advection.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah, the bottom graph is showing snow for KPAE.

 

Definitely crossing my fingers for some convergence zone(s) to pop up over the weekend!

Look's prime for convergence to me.

[Jesse]

Definitely a cold airmass overhead when 40 at the surface counts as heating. I don't recall a pattern like this happening anytime in the recent past.

D**n shame PDX just barely brushed 40 today. With tomorrow looking cold they could have strung together four consecutive highs in the 30s, which has got to be getting into pretty rarefied territory for this late.

[MossMan]

Stopped by the lake house...think I will wait a little longer to put the boat in the water!

[Jbolin]

Stopped by the lake house...think I will wait a little longer to put the boat in the water!

Sweep that off and dunk her in man.

[MossMan]

Good grief, one second I’m reading the forum and it sounds like more winter fun over the next week with posts like “January 1950 in February” and then the very next post is “snow levels too high and rain for most all of us” for the next week...

 

And why are Arctic Fronts so D**n grumpy all the time?

[seattleweatherguy]

So Friday will go from snow to rain or all snow like the nws seems to think

[seattleweatherguy]

34 with a dp of 13 here

[MossMan]

So Friday will go from snow to rain or all snow like the nws seems to think

Depends on who you ask on here apparently! At least that is what I have gathered while getting caught up on the forum festivities.

 

JAYA...thoughts on this?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z nam a little more generous with moisture and a little colder at the surface so far.

[Bryant]

Good grief, one second I’m reading the forum and it sounds like more winter fun over the next week with posts like “January 1950 in February” and then the very next post is “snow levels too high and rain for most all of us” for the next week...

 

And why are Arctic Fronts so d**n grumpy all the time?

What's your opinion?

[pscz1140]

00z nam a little more generous with moisture and a little colder at the surface so far.

 

It's ripe with potential.

 

Those away from the water, a bit elevated, and/or a little north are probably going to pretty happy if it turns out anything like that. Having said that, it might turn out well even for those who lack those most enviable qualities.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So Friday will go from snow to rain or all snow like the nws seems to think

 

We had that with one of the events in Dec, 2016.  We had snow for 2 hrs, then a period of sleet, then changed back to all snow and we ended up with 5-6".

[luminen]

That SSW was just what we needed to reset the background state. If this can maintain itself throughout 2018 and into 2019, we'll have an interesting year and one heck of a winter in 18-19 which will obviously be the ten year anniversary of the much beloved 2008-2009 December blast.

[seattleweatherguy]

We had that with one of the events in Dec, 2016. We had snow for 2 hrs, then a period of sleet, then changed back to all snow and we ended up with 5-6".

I think that was an OR only event

[snow_wizard]

That SSW was just what we needed to reset the background state. If this can maintain itself throughout 2018 and into 2019, we'll have an interesting year and one heck of a winter in 18-19 which will obviously be the ten year anniversary of the much beloved 2008-2009 December blast.

 

Next winter will be kind of like a slot machine coming up all cherries, or gold bars, or whatever.  

 

1. 8 - 9 winter.

2. The winter before solar min is reached

3. Likely neutral or cold ENSO

 

Things to watch for will be falling PDO and persistent GOA ridging this year.