Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The cutoff on the HRRR is very sharp between CR and Iowa City. Iowa City keeps showing up on the southern edge of the heaviest band. Cedar Rapids looks to be in a great spot. I’m right in between.Same here. The county I live in (Dallas) varies from .20" qpf to .50" qpf on the latest runs. I'am also right in the middle so it could go either way. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 WWA for us, 2-3 inches. Not sure about that personally, but nice to get another headline so soon after Sat/Sun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 LOT's update snowfall forecast.... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 LOT suggesting rather high snow ratios: Forecast soundings indicate a very deep layer (well inexcess of 10 kft) of saturated conditions within the dendriticgrowth zone, though omega peaks at the top or just above thislayer. The very deep DGZ should help to achieve higher thanaverage snow to liquid ratios. NAM Cobb outputs suggests averageof 16-17:1 while time-lagged ensemble guidance shows a decentlikelihood of achieving 25:1 ratios at times. Took a middleground on the SLR nudging up slightly from previous forecastgetting closer to a 20:1 average. Generally expect total QPFvalues of 0.15 to 0.30 across the CWA which will result indeterministic snow totals of 3-6 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OAX&brand=wui&num=16&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25297261&lat=41.47476196&lon=-96.20301819&label=Kennard%2C+NE #Omadome... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 SIGN ME UP!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GID put up an advisory for Grand Island/Kearney/Hastings. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Warning on the table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Warning on the table?DMX will only do it when (if) its happening. Maybe around 11am if radar trends hold but even then , if BeerEnds, is working, forget about it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Meh. Everything is to our North. I'm fine with that, I have a big exam today and this is the one day I DON'T need much snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 LOT suggesting rather high snow ratios:Still sticking with 2 here. Let’s see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Based on radar trends Des Moines looks to be in the primo spot to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 And the latest HRRR agrees with Des Moines being in the best spot. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018020513/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Nothing on radar for us is reaching the ground yet. We are surrounded by pretty dark clouds however. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Man, this system is a fast mover. In and Out! Will dump a quick 1-3" IMBY. Nice! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 When I first checked the radar an hour ago, I thought it looked like good snow was farther south in western Iowa than I expected. Now the models are trending more robust out that way and a bit south in general. Des Moines really does look good. The HRRR is clobbering that area. I'm still thinking 5" here, which I'll be quite pleased with. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Upper air temps look warm so I'm not too sure how much that'll affect ratios. No wind, however. Still thinking whatever we see will accumulate pretty easily. If we end up getting an isolated band like some models are showing an inch should be easy to achieve. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 HRRR has been consistently showing around 7" for CR and IC. That would be sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Radar is lighting up around my area. Snow should begin here soon. Hoping for 6-7 inches out of this. More would be great, but depends where best band is. I am kind of surprised that a Winter Storm Warning has not been issued yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 this is a very quick storm. It's going to have to dump 1"/hr rates at times to get 6+". It might only snow 9 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 10+ for dsm?? Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looking at radar trends from the Hastings radar, I'd say Omaha is in a sweet spot. The heavy band appears to be heading right towards us. Hopefully, it doesn't weaken/shift north! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gotta love it when the heavy band sets up 10 miles to the south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 radar looks like it's moving mostly west to east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 HRRR shows us getting 8" in about 8 hours(or slightly less). I don't buy that. I could see 5-6 though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gotta love it when the heavy band sets up 10 miles to the southLook at what's happening to Omaha right now. Heavier returns west, north, and east of us. It's like an arc of snow all around of us, with not a single flake falling right now. OMADOME!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 heavy snow wording added to the forecast here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 DSM gonna get crushed. I bet Warning gets issued soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Last two runs of the HRRR have 0.4" back up into CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 also talking 20 or 25 to 1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Des Moines area is going to get hit hard for the next few hours at least. Good spot to be in. Hopefully it maintains it's intensity as it heads east, if it does it will hit my area head on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Des Moines area is going to get hit hard for the next few hours at least. Good spot to be in. Hopefully it maintains it's intensity as it heads east, if it does it will hit my area head on.Are flakes flying by you yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 nice little dry slot working in right over I80 where I live. So still nothing here. Should start in the next 15 minutes or so though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 First flakes reaching the ground in CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 nice little dry slot working in right over I80 where I live. So still nothing here. Should start in the next 15 minutes or so though. Not snowing up here either, but forecast soundings showed a hefty dry layer in the lower levels, although the rates should overcome that within the hour. NWS was talking about it in their AFD. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Are flakes flying by you yet? The snow is mainly smaller flakes which are not that efficient in accumulating but occasionally it does get better. About 30 miles WNW of DSM. I doubt WSW go out because of this factor.The Hrrr and RAP showing amounts near 10" is not going to happen, but a solid 5-7" is not out of the question if you can get under the heavier bands. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 MKE raised things up here. Should get 1-2.5" of fluff on top of our 6" snowpack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 By looking at the radar, this baby is moving due east towards SEMI. I like the way its holding up. I just hope it doesn't lose its grip as it heads E. I can see a couple of inches for MBY tbh (2-4"), assuming it does not break up, in terms of precipitationwise. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Forcing must suck in mby. Falls apart as it gets close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Light snow in Downtown Lincoln right now. Driving home. Radar looks good. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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