gosaints Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Highs in the mid to upper 50s will help get rid of the frost.Not it it's feet deep it won't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 yeah i believe i heard local met say the other day that its 2-3 feet deep.Wasn’t aware of that. I still would rather have rain because the snow wouldn’t stick for very long and the snow seems like it would be a sloppy wet snow where it occurs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Wasn’t aware of that. I still would rather have rain because the snow wouldn’t stick for very long and the snow seems like it would be a sloppy wet snow where it occurs.So if models showed 12+ with 40 mph winds you would rather have rain? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022512&fh=114&r=us_mw&dpdt= 21+ for LSE this run12 for MSN Impressive totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 12z GFS is horrible; except for Wisconsin. I liked it better when it as least showed make-believe storms; that afforded one cause to anticipate the next model run. Now it is just blasé... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022512&fh=114&r=us_mw&dpdt= 21+ for LSE this run12 for MSN Impressive totalsNice weird hole by me here in IA, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Ukie has a 998 L over Chicago at 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 So if models showed 12+ with 40 mph winds you would rather have rain?This time of the year, yes. If this was in December or January then I would rather have snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 UK also favoring Wisconsin. I can't tell p-types here, but i think most of the snow is confined to Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems. lolGive it a rest. We average over 10” in March. I’d say we’ll get another one, at least. Fortunately for you we won’t get this one. I think that might push you over the edge for some reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Euro back to a big solution 994 L just south of Chicago http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2018022512&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt= 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looks like 850’s are cold enough for snow in Iowa and north of Milwaukee http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850tw&rh=2018022512&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Kuchera isnt the right method to use for 32 degree events. Thats more so for highs in the teens and 20s Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 12z Euro suggesting snow is back in the picture for IA and S WI into parts of N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Kuchera isnt the right method to use for 32 degree events. Thats more so for highs in the teens and 20sUh they take in account for ratios... The other day it was showing 5-8:1 ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Temps are so marginal and with highs near 60F the day before its going to be difficult to accumulate on the streets/sidewalks. This is the type of low ratio/heart attack snow that gets plastered to everything in site. Anyhow, the Euro is trending towards what I'd through it would and generating its own cold air. Just give me another 6" to get to normal snowfall and I'll be content. Take a look at the total precip...pretty insane amount of liquid...again, it's absolutely amazing how close this run is getting towards the track and precip shield in the LRC cycle # 1. Gotta love nature. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Nice bullseye by Tom!!I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty narrow snow band. Gonna be heavy wet snow for sure.Of note: Look at the qpf and snowfall map. That's some low ratio stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Nice bullseye by Tom!!I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty narrow snow band. Gonna be heavy wet snow for sure.Of note: Look at the qpf and snowfall map. That's some low ratio stuff.That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Quite the precip gradient with basically zero precip here and 2+ in N IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...Do you think it's more realistic for IA since temps should be a lil colder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Do you think it's more realistic for IA since temps should be a lil colder?Yes, but still think low end ratios are the way to go...not 10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 I'm all for a heavy wet snow. Havent had that this year yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account... Doesn't the shift from SW to W mean that it's going to be less rain and more snow? I imagine it's sucking up less warm air from the south this way. I remember this thing coming very strongly from the south. And that map seems to imply it'll be heading west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/967832145812185088 You can see precip type maps in his tweet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Per Ryan's maps it would suggest insane snowfall rates around here at HR 102...on top of that, it would mainly be a daytime event... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_96.pnghttp://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_102.pnghttp://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_108.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_114.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Euro text output with .54” for Cedar Rapids while it transitions from rain to snow. Then .9” qpf after it fully transitions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 A good number of the 12z GEFS ensembles barely even have much of anything at all. Models are going to struggle mightily for another few days. Entertaining storm tracking at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 I’m a fan of that euro. But it has not been very consistent, unfortunately. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 12z EPS trended back to a snowier solution across IA/SE MN/N IL/SC WI into MI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looks more north up this way Must be some nice solutions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Lol relying on a storm making its own cold air is never fun. Several ensembles have the snow over eastern ne Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Lol relying on a storm making its own cold air is never fun. Several ensembles have the snow over eastern neNobody said they are "relying" on anything, just stating a fact that storms this strong do in fact generate their own cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 EPS trends over the last 3 days clearly showing a stronger and colder 850 trend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 EPS trends over the last 3 days clearly showing a stronger and colder 850 trend...Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lolYou’re clearly mad that you’re not gonna get snow from this system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lolThe only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much. Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off.I agree with you and Tom. Late Feb/early March is still ideal time for cold air to get into this system. Most areas may be above freezing this week but it’s not like it’s a torch. I think there will be a few nice snow hits with this for sure. Everyone ESE of here in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 The only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much. Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback.Awaiting Craigs next meltdown... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Is he aware that Minneapolis averages double the amount of snow Omaha does? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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