gimmesnow Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hope this thing can bulk up a bit and spread more snow to the north. I'm going to be so ecstatic if I end my snowboarding season in fresh snow, then Tuesday we get half an inch of rain in the 50s to burn off all the ice on the lake. 52 and sunny, that lake is calling my name thursday and friday. Though that cold water is rough when you jump in, you can't breath for a while. It's holding together a lot better than I thought it would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end. If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north. This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March!I'll take a slight bump north on each run starting with the 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 nam took another jog northeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 DVN at least admitting they won't know how much snow will fall until it's basically falling. As for snow amounts, the storm track and thermal profiles of theatmosphere will be very important. Overall forcing will be quitestrong Friday night into Saturday morning so the probability is highthat a significant band of accumulating snow will develop. Wherethis band sets up may not be fully known until Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Night time snowfall in late March will at least pose no threat to radiational warming. Should see the snow stack up better wherever that does happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM kinda peters out the high amounts into IL. Still pretty good considering were past the equinox now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 18z ICON took a big jump northeast from it's 12z Run. it went from the furthest SW to possibly the furthest NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 A bit surprised the watch includes part of the TC metro. MPX siding with the GFS and NAM, saying the Euro is too far east with the heaviest snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS looks a lot different this run. Weird really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS may be latching onto this inverted trough idea that the Euro is doing. Because a secondary area of much heavier precip is breaking out behind the cold air in central IA this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS did shift further NE with the lead band from the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 I’m still not fully on board with this system but here’s the latest thinking in these parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM a bit further south this run than 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 The models continue to be pretty darn consistent with the snow band. Any changes on the evening runs are subtle. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 The biggest model shift this evening is actually the euro ensemble mean. It had been northeast of the op run, centered over Dubuque, but it just jumped sw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 WSW's hoisted for parts of NE IA into N IL with 4-8" in the forecast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Model tends overnight shifted about one county south in eastern Iowa which is good news for me. Cedar Rapids seems to be firmly in the heavier swath. I’m still on the edge but getting closer. A few inches looks likely here at this point. Cedar Rapids could get 6”. Just to the east of CR is looking like the best spot for heavier snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Interesting how bullish DVN is on the forecast with this kne. However, I think they are a tad too north given the recent model shift southward. I like where I sit for this one. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 You guys in E IA are in for a sweet storm. Who’s pulling an all nighter? Lol. Some posters in N/C IL are also going to cash in Bigly from this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 06z GFS with about a one county shift back to the NE here. 06z NAMs with a bump NE as well. It’s all going to depend on where the pivot sets up and the eastward progression stops. Riding the line between nothing and a few inches. If we do get precip at least the changeover from liquid to frozen should be fairly quick. Should fall at night too which will help with any accums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Good luck to everyone on here. I'll take the rain that Lincoln's getting. Let's get everything greened up. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM shifted north.... again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 One thing I’ve noticed in the last few runs is that the axis of precip is becoming more N/S oriented as opposed to NW/SE on a few of the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM introduces a massive warm nose aloft chopping snow totals down quite a lot. NAM seems to be biased in the sense that it always seems to overdo ZR on these types of events. Especially when the snow, especially initially, is going to be induced by dynamic cooling. To have it start as rain, go to snow through this process only to go back to ZR? I guess... but I don't buy that. EDIT: By a lot I mean 0.45-0.7QPF, so a good 3-5" of snow at least. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Convective nature to this system may even pose a threat for Thundersnow??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 3k NAM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018032212/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 One thing I’ve noticed in the last few runs is that the axis of precip is becoming more N/S oriented as opposed to NW/SE on a few of the models. I've been noticing that as well. Tropical Tidbits' 3k nam Ferrier rime correction snow map is pretty ugly for Cedar Rapids... way northeast. My initial guess of a sloppy inch or two is still on track. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 On the 12z NAM it shows 11” Kuchera here. On the 3km NAM it’s a complete whiff in my county. Gotta love it inside 40 hours. St. Paul would be sending it’s snow removal equip 12 miles over to Minneapolis. Nasty gradient on this. Wowzers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 On the 12z NAM it shows 11” Kuchera here. On the 3km NAM it’s a complete whiff in my county. Gotta love it inside 40 hours. St. Paul would be sending it’s snow removal equip 12 miles over to Minneapolis. Nasty gradient on this. Wowzers.That's been the theme of the winter.....nasty gradients. It seemed like every storm we have gotten this year has had some crazy cut offs in totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 12z ICON, about the same Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 12z GFS a tick north through hr 48 and a few ticks weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 I'm riding the RGEM here. It's much colder which accounts for the differences in snow. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018032212/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 This better either go spring mode and whiff or dump on me. With my luck I will somehow get stuck in that very tight gradient with an inch or 2. Either way it should melt quickly with the high sun angle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 A tick back NE on the 12z guidance. Perhaps I shouldn't be complacent about my location until the actual event. CR is back on the edge as always. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Go Canada!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 The moisture is there for anyone in eastern Iowa to score big on snow totals. The question will be how quickly does this transition to snow. The sooner and further west this happens, the higher accumulations will be. It's pretty much a guessing game here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Let's see if the euro can hold serve with a slightly more sw solution. I'm still not on board the CR snow train. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Again, wish we could get p-types from the UK, but it certainly seems to continue to advertise a further SW solution. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 850s at the same time. - if the UK is right, then the heavy snow band would easily encompass Iowa City and Cedar Rapids and points to the east. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_042_0850.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Upon looking at QPF maps on the NAM, the main axis of precip barely moved. What happened is that a lot of the precip in the CR/IC area falls as ZR, which cuts at least 3-4 inches into the accum snowfall there. As I said earlier, the NAM always seems to be a champion of ZR/IP in marginal temp precip events. I Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.