3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Money]

MKE update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1014 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD ADVECTION TO NOT INCREASE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TUE WHEN NLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. 18Z AND 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FARTHER NWD THAN OTHER
MODELS. THERE IS STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SWD FROM CANADA RESULTING IN A STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE
AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER SE WI AND NRN IL. HEAVY SNOW IS THE RESULT.
THIS HOWEVER REMAINS AN OUTLIER SO NO CHANGES TO LIGHT RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH 1-3 INCHES FORECAST...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAR
SE WI. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL ASSESS NEWER MODELS AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

 

Pretty meh

[Sciascia]

ABC 7's Phil Schwarz on Twitter:
 

 

If the NAM verifies we will see 6-10" of snow beginning around midnight tomorrow night. Wednesday morning will be a nightmare

[indianajohn]

Caplan wusses out LOL calling for 2.5" city south

[Sciascia]

Caplan still showing mixing here on Microcast. 2.4" at ORD.

[Geos]

Caplan's map showing a very limited area of heavy snow, which is around here. 

 

Mixing from I-90 south until about 3am.

[abhidupage]

Brant Miller Showed Latest RPM run that came in few mins ago has 8-11" in a lot of places. Trend is def for higher amounts

[Scott26]

It's because a lot of the precip on his microcast is rain which is likely not going to happen.

[Tom]

You know it's been a brutal winter here in Chicago when....people dining outside at Tavern on Rush in downtown tonight!  LOL

[Money]

GFS is def. heading north imo

 

stronger through HR 9.

[Geos]

You know it's been a brutal winter here in Chicago when....people dining outside at Tavern on Rush in downtown tonight!  LOL

 

Hey, I didn't even wear a coat today!

 

Yeah the future cast looked a bit odd.

[midwest buildit]

if this happens...the lion that brought march in is saying hes eating the lamb that's gonna take us into April.

[Tom]

I love tracking these last minute monsters in the making...makes things so much more exciting than tracking a monster storm showing up on models days away that turn into duds or misses.  I find these type of storm systems the most exciting to track.

[abhidupage]

13 weather authority don't know if you guys follow it great rockford station. Latest run

 

[Money]

993.7 at HR 21

[Geos]

RGEM south.

 

[Jaycee]

Wow definitely stronger than the 18z. 993 mb low thru 21 hr. Chicago, man your stations fellas this could be a big run from the GFS!

 

EDIT: Wow, intense wind around here @ 27 hour. What a contrast of temperatures tomorrow will be for this area. This storm is a beast.

[Tom]

@ Geo's, when I was up on my roof today taking off my lights I almost felt like taking off my shirt and catching some Rays! 

 

 

BTW, there have been many examples of storm systems that crushed Chicago in the winter when just days before the event mets were predicting 60's and the following day a Blizzard hit.  This may be the tale of what we are about to experience as history may teach us another lesson.

[Sciascia]

Still a big difference in snow amounts thru 33hrs. NAM had 6+ here, GFS has 2.5-3".

[Money]

GFS does this weird thing and takes it more ESE rather than ENE like the NAM does once it gets into IL. 

 

Seems weird how a bombing low would go more ESE compared to NE.

[DominicR]

Not quite the NAM but def a improvement.

[Tom]

00z GFS having its typical feedback issues jumping the low ESE as Money said...

[Iowawx]

Told you guys NAM is way overdoing it. I'm guessing 1-3 for my area, 2-4 for Chicago. 

[Money]

At HR 27 it's at 995.4 a tad NW of STL and at HR 33 it's at 993 on the S. IN/OH border.

 

It goes pretty much due east. Doesn't that seem odd to anyone else?

[Jaycee]

00z GFS having its typical feedback issues jumping the low ESE as Money said...

Either way, the general amounts are much weaker. NAM definitely overdoing it. Maybe a mix between the two for amounts?? That's what you guys always tell me so I'll stick with that!

 

Money, think about the tracks of CO Lows though. The "bowling ball" type systems that bomb out in the Plains, they move due E from KS to IL usually. 

[Geos]

Not quite the NAM but def a improvement.

 

It's really, really far off!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

[DominicR]

Heaviest still southeast but it's furthur NW.

[DominicR]

It's really, really far off!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

 

Yes  but go to 45hr and compare to 18z. It's furthur NW.

[6789]

Well then.............. 

 

Edit* Not to angry, wasn't expecting the obscene 30" but this run was a joke compared to the NAM, lol I wouldn't even call it a "run" haha. We shall see, I'm still sticking to the 6-12" if I'm going to bust it mine as well be, what most likely is, the last storm of the season! 

[DominicR]

RGEM is pretty much similar but GFS is step in right direction. Now let it blow up in next few runs Give the sucker a chance.

[Geos]

Yes  but go to 45hr and compare to 18z. It's furthur NW.

 

Nikos gets plastered, but it looks like an advisory will cover it.

 

Would fit the watches nicely.

[Money]

Geos rooting hard for a southern storm. 

[DominicR]

Nikos gets plastered, but it looks like an advisory will cover it.

 

Would fit the watches nicely.

 

Okay will see about that in 2 runs.

[East Dubzz]

Geos rooting hard for a southern storm. 

[Money]

UKMET is N of it's 12z run bringing nearly .5 QPF to Chicago.

[Geos]

Geos rooting hard for a southern storm. 

 

That's because I really have to keep this dentist appt in the morning.

 

Wish it would wait to the weekend, if it had to come honestly. Don't like the 20 miles commute to work.

[Money]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-68-0-00818500-1394509456.gif

[DominicR]

Southern wave tries to hide and run away from northern stream but northern stream will grab it quicker for a more phased amped solution like NAM.

[Geos]

Okay will see about that in 2 runs.

 

I'm saying as is tonight, if that was the outcome. I'm not saying that is the outcome.

 

LOT will be holding back for several hours I'm sure.

[Sciascia]

I don't know what to feel; globals aren't budging, and the NAM is going Super Mario Bros. right now.

[Money]

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048

 

That was 12z ukie

 

0z looks def. north, doesnt it?