1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[bud2380]

Models have been showing this for days and are starting to come into pretty good agreement on a stripe of moderate to heavy snow from the Rockies all the way to lower Michigan this weekend.  Below is a 48 hour snow map so it encompasses most of the storm for all areas.  

 

 

[bud2380]

12z GFS 

 

 

[jaster220]

GRR kinda bullish considering the forecaster

- More snow Saturday through Saturday night -

Isentropic upglide and mid level frontogenetical forcing to the
north of a quasi stationary frontal boundary off to our south will
combine to bring snow Saturday through Saturday night. A west to
east oriented swath of 2-5 inches is probable for our central to
southern fcst area. Given the nature of fgen banded snow I would
not be surprised if a few locations receive over a half a foot of
snow where fgen forcing is the most robust and persistent.

[Hawkeye]

It's nice to see models coming back south a bit.  It's not particularly strong or wet, but in our nickel and dimer climate we have to take what we can get.

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's nice to see models coming back south a bit.  It's not particularly strong or wet, but in our nickel and dimer climate we have to take what we can get.

Anxious to see the Euro here in a few minutes.  I just wish I was around to see this one.  Hopefully it's not the big dog of the winter for our parts.  

[bud2380]

12z Euro looks a little further south compared to the 00z run.  Through 60 hours.

[bud2380]

Euro may have come south a tad, but what it really did more than anything is just shrink the snow shield on the north end of the system pretty dramatically.  The southern extent didn't move much.  

[bud2380]

 

12z vs. 00z

 

[bud2380]

Further east.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The 2nd of the two weekend waves helps fill in the gaps a bit more.

Honestly, as long as FSD receives at least 3.2 inches I'll be happy as that will move this January into snowiest ever. Would certainly be a nice record to reach. 

I just really believe that at least the 2nd wave will be further south in coming runs.  Living here my entire life, I've seen this set up with arctic air damned against the Front Range.  Usually waves form and move southeast giving us some surprise accumulations.  Euro has snow moving north into the cold air, not to the south as so often happens around here.  Sometimes it even gets cold enough here that it pushes waves south of us into Kansas.  Models may end up being entirely correct and I'd be wrong again.  

[Tom]

It appears that there are going to be 3 different waves, every 24-36 hours...the last one being the biggest towards the 31st/1st...whoever is lucky to score with all 3 will do amazing.

[CentralNebWeather]

21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Good info. I still have lots to learn about this climate and the weather patterns over here!

I mentioned this in the other thread but I am also expecting a bit of a southern trend over the next couple days, which appears to have already started. Although I'm basing that expectation on all ensemble suites being further south than their respective deterministic models. Makes it seem like the room for northward movement is minimal while the room for a southward shift is still plenty. Like I said, as long as I can score a few inches to reach that record I'll be more than happy to share the wealth, especially if it means Omaha folks can finally score something more substantial!

Good stuff.  I think the 1st wave stays somewhere over southern SD, northern Nebraska into northern Iowa.  The 2nd wave to me is the wild card.  Where does it go?  In many instances, it what would typically sink south or form along the front range and move southeast.  May not occur, but just thinking back to similar setups.  In January/Feb. of 2019 and 2021 waves would form around Cheyenne and move southeast with high ratios snow.  

[Tom]

The EPS is showing 3 different waves through the 1st of FEB...the weekend, then a lighter snow on Mon/Tue over the MW/Lower Lakes, then the bigger one on the 31st/1st which is looking more organized.

Here's the 1st one...

 

[james1976]

Looks like my IA home may get a decent snow out of this. I'll be up in MN though so I'll miss out on this one.

[Bellona]

39 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Looks like my IA home may get a decent snow out of this. I'll be up in MN though so I'll miss out on this one.

I'm hoping so. Would be nice to get more than 3 or 4 inches from a storm. Not that I won't take those too.

[Hawkeye]

18z NAM... I wish it wasn't so narrow.  One county north or south of the best snow, it really drops off.

[bud2380]

DVN short and sweet for the Saturday system, but sounds optimistic. 

 

 

Saturday through AM Sunday..

Band of snow remains on track to move from west to east across Iowa
and northern Illinois as a surface low zips across northern Missouri
and central Illinois. Looks to be some great support in place for
this with a strengthening LLJ across Missouri and strengthening
divergence aloft with an upper level jet. Fcst soundings suggest a
favorable snow growth depth and plenty of availible RH for
dendrites, which would favor potential for several inches of new
accumulation. Will need to watch this period for headlines.

[Hawkeye]

DMX disco... I like the "large DGZ" part.  Medium+ dendrites, falling during the day, would be a nice change.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY:
As we get into Saturday, yet another system remains on track to
bring snow to the area with models continuing to hint at banded
snowfall. As the wave moves through Friday night into Saturday
night, models still kick off a fgen circulation with low to mid-
level convergence. Further, the right entrance region of a 120
knot upper-level jet would be located over southern into central
Iowa with consistency between the NAM/GFS, though the CMC jet is
further south and the EURO is more progressive. All this to say,
with potential for multiple forcing mechanisms and forecast
soundings indicating a large dendritic layer, moderate to heavy
snowfall continues to remain on track with snow ratios in the 15:1
to 20:1 range as temperatures cool again. The fgen bands do have
some spatial inconsistencies still so where the heaviest band of
snow occurs is still a little uncertain, but will certainly
continue to monitor trends into Saturday as some headlines may
need to be hoisted in the coming days.

[bud2380]

18z GFS

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS has that 2nd wave across Southwest and Southern Nebraska. Not as strong as wave 1, but could possibly overachieve later in the weekend. 

[Bryan1117]

28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z GFS has that 2nd wave across Southwest and Southern Nebraska. Not as strong as wave 1, but could possibly overachieve later in the weekend. 

I mean look at that nice “snow hole” near Omaha… that’s just funny and awesome at the same time!

[Bellona]

Did you all in Omaha kick a man with a goat out of a ballpark or something recently? Lol

[Grizzcoat]

DMX's chance of 2"+

 

[jaster220]

Insanely long fgen streak

 

[mlgamer]

2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

I mean look at that nice “snow hole” near Omaha… that’s just funny and awesome at the same time!

For some reason you guys have been lumped in with normal Topeka "winter" weather this year. Not sure what you did to deserve it but it must have been pretty bad.

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Insanely long fgen streak

 

Love tracking these set ups as they can end up becoming long duration systems.    

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Love tracking these set ups as they can end up becoming long duration systems.    

Yep, if you end up in the sweet spot - look out for surprises! In 2014 every possible storm mode gave the best outcome along I-94 here in SMI. I think that was the last time I was the "winner" with one of these. Looking positive we both get in on the action. 

NAM's outta it's mind. 12 hrs into it here at the end of it's run and it looks to just be hitting it's stride. 

Insane that I've just barely finished with a major storm and I'm already tracking another potential. 

 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

nam definitely north vs 18z

[jcwxguy]

brutal cutoff on southern edge, only want a shift of 3 counties south for nebraska so omaha folks can get some

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm getting a bit concerned about another north shift.  As narrow as this band will be, I absolutely don't want to be on the south edge.

[jcwxguy]

HRW FV3 is on the northern side of guidance as well.

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

HRW FV3 is on the northern side of guidance as well.

Yep, it's aimed at northern Iowa.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Nebraska close up to really get the burn in deep

[jcwxguy]

RDPS is just a hair north of 18z run

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, jcwxguy said:

RDPS is just a hair north of 18z run

Doesn’t look like she’s coming south anytime soon. 

[Hawkeye]

Everything is going north.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Have to hope the second wave stays farther south and strengthens some. 

[jcwxguy]